Tennessee
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-31-2023
An AFC South rematch is headed to Houston on Sunday afternoon. The Tennessee Titans (5-10-0; 6-8-1 ATS) will look to avenge their home loss two weeks ago against the Houston Texans (8-7-0; 7-8-0 ATS). That game went into overtime before the Texans took it home. With this game shifting to NRG Stadium at 1:00 p.m. EDT, Houston has to feel good about their chances again. Will they take another against their rival, or are the Titans going to salvage a split this season?
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Another Tough Titans Loss
The Tennessee Titans will not make the playoffs this season. After blowing last Sunday’s game and allowing the Seahawks to score the winning touchdown with less than a minute left, that’s probably for the best. Tennessee has dropped three of four (each loss by three points) and needs to go back to the drawing board this offseason. The first fix needs to be for an offense picking up 4.9 yards per play (26th). The rushing attack is mediocre, as Derrick Henry (3.9 ypc) is having his least efficient season ever. Meanwhile, the Titans have the second-fewest pass attempts as a team this season yet their quarterbacks have been sacked 56 times (28th). They average 18.3 points per game (27th) and failed to reach 20 the past two weeks. Can they finish the season strong before much-needed changes come in the offseason?
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee is much more competitive, although losing Jeffery Simmons to the IR last week won’t help them close the season. He’s a major reason that the Titans only allow 3.8 yards per rush (7th) and 21.4 points per game (14th). Tennessee is also 10th in sacks with 44. However, the team still has a clear weakness and that’s giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Titans also aren’t as formidable on the road, as they’ve given up at least 20 points in six straight away games. Teams score 23.9 points per game against the visiting version of the Titans. This is the final road test, where they can stick it to a rival. Let’s see if they bring it.
Houston Still Has Hope
The Texans got pummeled 36-22 last week without C.J. Stroud, their second uncompetitive loss in the last three weeks. Still, Houston controls their fate, as winning their remaining two games will guarantee a wild-card spot at least. Winning out paired with a Jaguars loss will earn Houston the AFC South crown. The first of those two necessary games should happen with Stroud back under center. The rookie has the Texans ranked third in yards per pass attempt and fourth in total passing yards. That’s despite the line allowing 44 sacks this season. The Texans also have a weak running game, one which only collects 3.8 yards per carry (28th). Regardless, the passing game is strong, and the second-fewest giveaways don’t bail out opposing defenses. They only mustered 19 points in Nashville, but their 24.4 points per game at home should be a big boost on Sunday.
Houston should also benefit from a defense that’s dominant against the run. The Texans have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards and the second-fewest yards per attempt this season. It has helped them keep teams to 5.3 yards per play (18th) and 22.1 points per game (17th). Those numbers would be better if the Texans didn’t surrender 7.8 yards per pass attempt (30th). Even with 22 takeaways and 39 sacks, there isn’t much that can undo that type of damage through the air. It’s hurt them recently, but let’s see if they can keep Tennessee in check again.
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
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This game shifting to Houston should greatly benefit the Texans. They’re stronger at home, the Titans are much worse on the road, and Houston already took the first meeting between these rivals. C.J. Stroud is also back for this must-win game.
On the field, the Titans have the second-fewest pass attempts offensively and get sacked a lot, so taking advantage of the Texans’ secondary won’t be easy. Meanwhile, the Texans should gash Tennessee’s back seven, which is weak. Houston has a +8 turnover margin, while the Titans are -6 so that battle should also favor the home team. Expect a dominant Texans win.
Prediction: Houston Texans -4
Full-Game Total Pick
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The last game ended with 35 total points after overtime. This one should have more scoring, but not enough to exceed the total. After all, it’s hard to trust a Titans team that averages 14.0 points per game on the road this season.
They only mustered 17 last week at home and 16 against the Texans a week before that, also at home. Tennessee is struggling, and it’s hitting a hostile environment on Sunday. Houston reaches the 20s, Tennessee struggles to reach double-digits, and this game finishes just under the total.
Prediction: Under 44