Tennessee population could hit 8 million in two decades. What it could mean for the state’s biggest cities

Tennessee’s population is expected to reach nearly 8 million in less than two decades. According to the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee is expected to be home to 7.94 million residents by 2040 — that’s a 13% increase from the 2022 population of 7.05 million, for which data is most recently available.

Between 2020 and 2030, Tennessee is projected to experience an annual population growth rate of 0.82%, an increase of approximately 600,000 people. According to the data, that’s 35,000 more people than were added between 2010 and 2020. A period of steady but smaller population gains will follow and is expected to continue through 2070, when the population is expected to reach 9,250,000.

“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and co-author of the findings. “But as the baby boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”

Per university research, older adults are expected to experience the highest population increase of all the age groups. The Volunteer State is also expected to grow more racially and ethnically diverse.

Here’s how else Tennessee is expected to grow at both the local and state level.

Which Tennessee cities grew the most? See how population shifted according to the U.S. Census

A growing population of older adults

By 2040, almost 20% of the state’s population is expected to be aged 65 and older. According to research, that’s a 17% increase and a growth of 306,000 people from 2022. By 2040, people between 65-74 (815,120) will be the dominant age group among older adults, following behind will be people between 75-84 (506,795) and finally people 85 and over (204,895).

According to Harris, a growing population of older adults will not only affect the health care system, but will also increase the need for more housing, transportation and other types of personal care throughout the decades.

Age groups younger than 65 are also expected to grow, however, those populations will grow at a much smaller rate. For example, populations between 25-52 are expected to grow by 11%, while populations under 20 are expected to grow just by 2%.

A more racially and ethnically diverse Tennessee

More than half of the state’s projected population growth can be attributed to Hispanics, Black or African Americans or people who are of other races or more than one race.

The largest increase will be among Hispanics, who will see an increase from approximately 450,000 in 2022to 754,000 over the next 20 years — a 6.4% increase. By 2040, the Hispanic population is expected to make up 10% of Tennessee residents. Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native American populations will see a similar increase, growing from 307,00 to 470,000 by 2040.

While populations of Black and white Tennesseans are expected to grow as well, the share of the state’s population that is white or Black will decrease. The Black population will decrease from 16.4% to 15.4% and the white population will decrease from 73% to 69% by 2040.

How will the Nashville area population change compared to other Tennessee cities?

The Nashville Metro Statistical Area, which includes Davidson, Murfreesboro and Franklin, is projected to see a 28% growth rate in 2040, bringing the total population to 2,642,779.

The Knoxville area will experience an 11% increase in 2040 bringing its total population to 1,038,122. The Chattanooga area is projected to experience a 13% increase in 2040, bringing the total population 474,768. On the other hand, the Memphis area is projected to experience a 3.4% decrease in population, lowering its 2040 population to 986, 741.

Methodology

The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research developed its population estimates using a cohort component model. Projections were conducted at the county level for each combination of race, sex and age, using internal data well as from the United States Census Bureau and the Tennessee Department of Health.

In order to determine individual areas’ population by race, sex and age for each year, information about birth rates, deathr rates and net migration was factored.

To learn more about the methodology, visit tnsdc.utk.edu.

Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana