For the primary time this season, the Tennessee Titans (1-2) lastly broke into the win column after defeating the Las Vegas Raiders (0-3), 24-22.
This victory provides the Titans reliable hope once more. A Week 3 loss to the Raiders would have despatched them to 0-3, which finally would have been the worst document within the league by the top of the weekend.
As a substitute, the Titans be a part of a cluster of groups who’re inside one sport of every at 1-2 and 2-1. After final Sunday’s exhausting fought win, Tennessee is now only one victory away from reaching .500 once more after a dismal 0-2 begin to the 12 months.
However earlier than we transfer on to Week 4, all season lengthy we’ve been reviewing the superior metrics from a number of completely different platforms and reflecting on what’s stood out probably the most.
Additionally, previous to going into all of that, we simply wished to provide a fast reminder that this text might be utilizing up to date superior metrics from Professional Soccer Focus (PFF), Subsequent Gen Stats, ESPN, RBSDM, and Sports activities Data Options (SIS).
A number of the verbiages is usually a bit complicated at occasions, so I’m additionally linking to a glossary on this article that incorporates any elaborate definitions that readers could must know.
Now, lets take a better take a look at the 4 main takeaways from the superior stats following the Titans’ first victory of the season.
Tennessee’s second-half offense is a reliable drawback
AP Picture/Wade Payne
One of many extra irritating developments of this younger season has been the Titans’ second-half struggles.
Tennessee hasn’t scored a single level within the second half in two straight video games and has been outscored 57-7 within the remaining two quarters general this season.
Fortunately for the Titans, they have been in a position to survive their current lackluster second half and nonetheless stroll away with a 24-22 victory over the Raiders.
These second-half points go a lot deeper than simply the blown leads on the scoreboard, although.
In line with RBSDM, the Titans are the second-most environment friendly first-half offense within the league. Tennessee’s EPA per play within the first two quarters of video games is 0.237 — a whopping .054 factors increased than the subsequent closest offense (Baltimore Ravens).
As a matter of truth, the Titans and Philadelphia Eagles are the one two offenses which might be producing an EPA per play of a minimum of 0.200 through the first two quarters of video games.
Tennessee additionally ranks within the top-10 in first-half success charge (50.6 %), dropback EPA (.380), dropback success charge (53.8 %), and dashing success charge (45.9 %).
Sadly, issues take a large flip for the worst after halftime. The Titans go from being the second-most environment friendly offense earlier than the half to the least environment friendly offense after the break.
Tennessee’s EPA per play drops all the way in which right down to -0.365, which isn’t solely the worst within the league, however they’re the one offense that’s producing an EPA of -0.3 or worse.
The Titans additionally rank within the backside 5 in second-half success charge (38.4 %), dropback EPA (-0.242), dashing EPA (-0.505), and dashing success charge (30 %).
One other space of concern that stands out when reviewing the SIS knowledge is the truth that Ryan Tannehill’s passer score drops a median of 57 factors after halftime. The Texas native has a first-half passer score of 109.0, however that passer score falls within the second half to a measly 52.0.
Additionally, when utilizing SIS’ Unbiased Quarterback Ranking (IQR) metric, Tannehill’s first-half IQR of 105.8 plummets all the way in which right down to 57.0.
The Titans’ quarterback isn’t the one one who has a large fall-off in manufacturing after the intermission. Derrick Henry is averaging almost two yards much less per carry from the primary half to the second.
The celebrity operating again has produced 132 dashing yards and two touchdowns on 31 first-half carries (4.2 YPC). Nonetheless, that manufacturing drastically drops as soon as the second half begins.
All through the primary three video games, Henry solely totaled 60 dashing yards on 23 second-half rush makes an attempt (2.6 YPC) — a distinction of 1.6 yards per carry between the 2 halves.
To ensure that this Titans offense to succeed in its full potential, they’ve to begin placing environment friendly video games collectively for 4 quarters.
The Titans have held a large lead going into halftime in two of their three video games, but they ended up taking their foot off the fuel pedal and it almost costed them each occasions.
At the very least Tennessee was in a position to grasp on to the win in opposition to Las Vegas, however they have to do a greater job at remaining environment friendly, constant, and aggressive for the complete sport.
This week is a vital divisional matchup between the 2 preseason favorites to win the AFC South. Evidently, this could be the best time for the Titans to place collectively an entire sport offensively to be able to construct some momentum as we begin to strategy the midseason mark.
Indicators of life from the Titans’ go catchers
After a lackluster first two weeks, the Titans are lastly beginning to see indicators of a doable breakthrough with their passing assault.
Robert Woods is the savvy veteran of the group who’s beginning to look more healthy and extra explosive with every passing week. Final Sunday, Woods set new season-highs after 9 targets have been thrown his approach, 4 of which have been thought-about “catchable”.
The California native caught all 4 of them for a complete of 85 yards (21.2 YPC).
Additionally, the USC product recorded a primary down on three of these 4 catches.
Creating first downs has been a constant side of Woods’ sport all year long. Bobby Timber has produced a primary down on roughly 66.7 % of his receptions (6-of-9).
So far as Titans rookie Treylon Burks goes, he didn’t have the elevated goal share all of us had hoped for. Nonetheless, he’s nonetheless making optimistic strides each week, particularly with regards to his snap counts.
Regardless of the restricted enjoying time, the rookie wideout at present ranks second on the crew in almost each main statistic, corresponding to targets (13), receptions (eight), yardage (115) and yards after the catch (54).
Dontrell Hilliard is one other weapon who has been a pleasing shock within the passing sport. Over the 2 video games that he’s performed on this 12 months, the Tulane product has produced 91 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 4 receptions.
Hilliard’s capacity to catch the ball out of the backfield has been a precious weapon within the passing sport and it’s one thing Tennessee will doubtless proceed to make the most of going ahead.
The Titans are additionally beginning to see extra contributions from the likes of Austin Hooper and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Kyle Philips will step proper again into the lineup as soon as he’s returned from his shoulder harm as properly.
This crew wants their high-paid veteran receiver and their first-round rookie to flourish because the weeks progress to ensure that this group to actually maximize its abilities.
Derrick Henry is slowly beginning to appear to be himself once more
This was just one sport in opposition to the eventual 0-3 Raiders, however Derrick Henry seemed each bit just like the celebrity operating again that everyone knows he really is.
The run-blocking not solely visibly improved, however Henry was way more decisive along with his decision-making, and he ran with indignant intentions anytime he touched the ball.
Henry broke a complete of 10 tackles on the day and produced properly over 60 yards after contact, per SIS. This quantity is critical as a result of, in response to ESPN (through NFL.com), the Titans are 19-3 when Henry has a minimum of 60 dashing yards after contact.
Traditionally talking, a excessive variety of dashing yards after contact by a Henry-led offense typically correlates to a worn-out protection by the point the fourth quarter rolls round.
In complete, the King accounted for 143 yards (85 dashing, 58 receiving) and one landing on 24 touches in Week 3.
This sport was positively a step in the precise course, however the star operating again undoubtedly nonetheless has loads of room for enchancment.
Henry nonetheless hasn’t eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the bottom, and as we famous earlier on this article, he nonetheless must put collectively an sufficient four-quarter efficiency to ensure that this offense to actually attain its ceiling.
Contemplating the trajectory Henry’s at present on, don’t be shocked if the mammoth operating again has his breakout sport within the very close to future.
Tennessee’s go rush has reliable potential as soon as wholesome
In line with SIS, the Titans at present account for the seventh-most pressures within the NFL (48), nevertheless, these pressures aren’t translating into sacks almost as a lot as Tennessee would really like.
As a crew, they’ve solely recorded seven sacks on the 12 months, largely as a result of accidents have already challenged the depth of this group.
When this Titans crew is at its finest, it has 4 succesful defenders who can harass the opposing quarterback by making use of constant stress from all angles with out having to ceaselessly blitz.
Again in Week 1 when Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry, Bud Dupree, and Rashad Weaver have been all wholesome, they accounted for 16 pressures and 5 sacks, per SIS.
Since then, the crew has solely accounted for 2 sacks in two video games regardless of recording a handful of pressures over these contests.
The most important distinction is the truth that Tennessee’s defensive entrance now had one much less succesful defender (Dupree), which frequently creates a gap someplace every time stress lastly arrives.
Most quarterbacks today are athletic sufficient to slip away and/or escape stress from one free defender, however actual havoc is created when a protection has a number of go rushers successful all through the identical rep.
That is one thing the Titans ceaselessly excelled at through the 2021 season, and it’s one thing they’re sometimes flashing by means of three video games even after dropping somebody like Harold Landry for the complete 2022 season.
Weaver specifically is the one who’s seizing the chance that’s in entrance of him. The Pittsburgh product has considerably elevated his function within the protection and is taking a large step ahead in his second season.
He at present leads the Titans in sacks (three) whereas additionally recording the second-most quarterback pressures (10) on the crew.
Simmons is the plain star of the group. He not solely eats up double groups to unlock his teammates, however he has confirmed that he’s greater than able to single-handedly beating a number of blockers to make the play himself.
The previous Mississippi State star at present ranks second on the crew in sacks (two) whereas additionally main the crew in pressures (13). Then you have got Dupree and Autry, who could solely have one sack every this 12 months, however the two of them have been a nuisance every time they’re on the market.
In line with Subsequent Gen Stats, in Dupree’s lone full sport of the season, he averaged the shortest distance on the crew between a pass-rusher and the opposing quarterback on a down-by-down foundation (3.37 yards of separation).
The following shortest distance on the 12 months was Autry’s Week 3 efficiency in opposition to the Raiders, the place he averaged 3.67 yards of separation from himself and the opposing quarterback on the time of the throw — the shortest common out of each groups.
Actually, Autry, Simmons, and Weaver all completed final Sunday’s sport properly beneath the league common of 4.53 yards of distance between the rusher and the opposing quarterback on the time of the throw (or sack).
The following step in the direction of as soon as once more changing into a dominant pass-rush unit is ending these pressures and turning them into sacks. For that to occur, they want Dupree to not solely get wholesome, however they want him, together with everybody else, to stay wholesome as properly.
If Tennessee is ready to hold these 4 defenders collectively and wholesome for the remainder of the 12 months, the protection ought to be capable to efficiently get after the quarterback and make up for lack of Landry.
Dupree’s well being standing for Week 4 remains to be up within the air, so be looking out for any updates all through the week, with the primary one approaching Wednesday in Tennessee’s first harm report of the week.