Tim Scott counts on South Carolina popularity as he seeks second look nationally

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) could emerge as a significant challenger to former President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, especially in his home state of South Carolina.

While South Carolina Republicans were clear that Trump has a strong base of support in the state, they indicated that voters are interested in Scott as a viable alternative.

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County and district GOP chairmen and women throughout the Palmetto state emphasized Trump was still on top. But, with about seven months until the South Carolina primary, they say voters are hearing other candidates out — Scott in particular.

“President Trump definitely has a very strong and large base of support going into our primary here in South Carolina,” Fourth District Republican Chairman Nate Leuppe said. “It is strong and it’s unwavering.”

But, he said, there is a smaller percentage of what he dubbed “America First” voters who are supportive of Trump but aren’t committed to him. He said they will likely hold out to see what happens in the months leading up to the primary.

According to Dorchester County GOP Chairman Steven Wright, the former president has “solid support in South Carolina, as he has across the country.”

However, he added the caveat that South Carolinians “take our obligation as a first in the South primary state seriously and that nobody’s entitled to our vote; they have to earn it.”

South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick, who is also co-chairman of the Republican National Committee, predicted that the state’s primary would be even more competitive than usual, thanks in part to a later primary scheduled for Feb. 24.

“The candidates are going to want to come here, campaign here, and win here because it will give them a bounce going into Super Tuesday, where you know, it’s difficult for them to get all around the country,” he explained.

Tensions in the South Carolina race are further increased by the presence of two candidates who call the state home, Scott and former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, McKissick said.

Several leaders described voters taking a specific interest in Scott, noting that they haven’t seen the same kind of support for Haley. Spartanburg County GOP Chairman Curtis Smith said that while voters like her, they feel she left “two very important jobs without them being finished,” referring to the governorship and her role as ambassador to the U.N. during the Trump administration.

Smith claimed that Scott’s appeal extends outside of just the Republican Party. According to him, he met several voters at a recent event with Scott “who had never voted Republican in their lives, who were minorities, who listened to Tim Scott and said, ‘I am now a Republican. And I’m going to vote.’”

As for the senator’s draw, he pointed to opportunity zones, which were part of an initiative authored by Scott and passed in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. “He put a lot of businesses up in these areas, and what he was doing with President Trump in creating opportunities for minorities, he has a great deal of people that think that he is great,” Smith said.

“And the fact that he is a South Carolinian that came up from his bootstraps — you’ve got an awful lot of people supporting him now,” he added.

Seventh Congressional District GOP Chairman Jerry Rovner told the Washington Examiner, “I think a lot of Democrats fear him because he’s black, he’s intelligent, he’s conservative, and they don’t know what to do.”

Regarding policy, Rovner noted that Scott has a very similar vision to Trump and most Republican voters. “He comes at it from a different tact,” he said, adding that Scott doesn’t personally attack opponents.

Multiple leaders predicted a serious challenge from Scott, especially if he manages to make progress in Iowa and New Hampshire.

“Sen. Scott is building an operation across our state. People know him. People like him. And he has received a great number of endorsements from senators, from local elected officials,” Wright said of Scott’s campaign.

The senator notably rolled out over 140 endorsements from current and former elected officials in South Carolina after announcing his bid for the presidency.

Wright pointed out that Scott’s endorsements include those from county-level officials, particularly in Dorchester County.

Leuppe further explained that while not everyone may support Scott for the Republican nomination, they all support him in other ways. Some of them, for example, think he would be a good vice president. “Tim Scott is an incredible person. He’s an incredible senator. And I think he has an incredible future,” he said.

A point echoed by some was that Trump has yet to speak poorly of Scott. They even recalled him saying the senator is a “nice guy” after attacking Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) at a recent rally in Pickens County.

If Trump were to change strategies in favor of attacking Scott, it might be a gamble, particularly given the senator’s high approval ratings.

In a 2022 Winthrop University poll, Scott had an approval rating of nearly 90% among South Carolina Republicans. He also enjoyed the approval of two-thirds of the general public in South Carolina.

In a HarrisX-Harris poll published last week, Scott received a net favorability rating of 10, while most figures received net negative results. Only six of the 25 rated individuals were given net positive numbers. Fellow presidential candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were the only people viewed more favorably than Scott.

While the race has been framed as a match between front-runner Trump and second-place contender DeSantis, some have indicated this might not be the dynamic found in South Carolina. Leaders said DeSantis has support in the state, but they also said Ramaswamy and Scott are getting significant attention.

One veteran Republican operative in South Carolina reiterated Trump’s dominance in the state but said the more religious voters are considering Scott, specifically. The senator has notably centered his campaign around faith.

As reports of internal reshuffling on the DeSantis campaign and donor concerns emerge, Scott’s campaign is looking to take advantage of the moment.

Sources involved in the South Carolina senator’s campaign said there won’t be a strategic shift in order to capitalize on uncertainty in the DeSantis campaign. They believe that so long as they continue doing what they’re doing, it will become clear to voters that Scott is the right messenger with the best message. He’s also got the resources to go the distance, they said.

These operatives are also aware of how quickly a lack of resources can sink a campaign. Scott ended the second quarter of 2023 with the second most cash on hand, behind only Trump.

They additionally feel confident that voters are refreshed by Scott’s positive approach and optimistic message.

GOP strategists also see an opening for Scott in the 2024 primary.

“It seems like DeSantis really set himself to be the alternative to Trump, whereas Tim Scott came into the race saying, ‘This is my vision for the country,”” said Susan Del Percio. “And being an alternative to Trump only works if Trump’s not in the race.”

To take full advantage of this, though, she said Scott needs to move aggressively.

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Republican strategist John Feehery added that his positive message sets Scott apart from the competition in a good way. Scott, he said, “has a very positive story and a positive message.”

“I don’t think either Trump or DeSantis have that same kind of powerfully positive message,” he said.