South Carolina football needs to win out in November to make a bowl game. How likely is it?

COLUMBIA — After a fourth straight SEC loss, South Carolina football is officially facing a must-win scenario in every game left on the schedule to have a chance of reaching bowl eligibility in 2023.

The Gamecocks (2-6, 1-5 SEC) showed more life Saturday in a 30-17 loss at Texas A&M (5-3, 3-2) than they did in earlier losses to Tennessee and Missouri, but the team continues to grapple with injury setbacks on offense and a lack of depth on defense. Quarterback Spencer Rattler played much of the game without any of his starting wide receivers on the field, and starting left guard Trai Jones became the 12th offensive lineman to receive an injury designation this season.

Despite giving up 30-plus points for the fifth game in a row, the South Carolina defense showed flashes of improvement with more of its young talent getting increased snaps. Redshirt freshman Jaron Willis, an Ole Miss transfer, was a revelation at linebacker against the Aggies, and freshman Judge Collier outplayed senior cornerback O’Donnell Fortune in his first career start.

As the Gamecocks prepare to start their November slate at home against Jacksonville State (7-2) on Nov. 4 (noon, ESPNU), here are the Gamecocks’ keys to hitting the six-win threshold.

The importance of home field advantage for South Carolina

A four-game SEC losing streak looks bad on paper, but it’s not entirely surprising considering four of the five conference losses have come on the road. The Gamecocks have an abysmal 2-10 record in SEC road games under coach Shane Beamer, and the loss at Texas A&M marks the first time since 2003 that South Carolina has lost all of its away games in a season. 

Unlike 2022, when South Carolina earned SEC road wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt, the Gamecocks have traveled to some of the most hostile environments in the country — Tennessee at Neyland Stadium, Georgia at Sanford Stadium, Texas A&M at Kyle Field. Even Missouri had a sold-out crowd against South Carolina.

The final four games are all at home with just two SEC opponents left. The Gamecocks are 2-1 at Williams-Brice Stadium this season, only dropping a 41-39 heartbreaker against Florida in Week 7. Beamer is 6-4 in conference games and 12-5 overall at home since 2021, and Vanderbilt has not won at Williams-Brice since 2007. Kentucky beat the Gamecocks at home in 2021.

Taking care of business against Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt

South Carolina should be favored against Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt (2-7, 0-5), likely by a touchdown or more, but neither of those games look like guaranteed victory with the current state of the Gamecocks’ roster. The team very nearly lost to the Commodores at home in 2021, escaping with a 21-20 win, but it is arguably more likely to be upset by Jacksonville State.

The other Gamecocks aren’t eligible for a bowl game this year as they transition from FCS to FBS, but Jacksonville State has been one of the more consistent mid-major teams this season. They are led by a deep running back room and disruptive defensive front, which poses a bad matchup for South Carolina’s struggles in the trenches.

Like South Carolina, Vanderbilt came into the season hoping to build on upsets of Kentucky and Florida at the end of 2022. Instead, the Commodores have been a disaster from the start with losses to Wake Forest and UNLV. Wide receiver Will Sheppard and defensive end Nate Clifton are bright spots for Vanderbilt, but even a limited South Carolina shouldn’t have trouble finding an edge in that matchup.

INJURY ISSUES: South Carolina football can’t overcome growing injury problems — even with Spencer Rattler

Do Gamecocks have real upset potential vs Kentucky, Clemson?

Because of the loss to Florida — a game South Carolina entered as a favorite — the Gamecocks’ season will rest heavily on these two matchups. Both Clemson and Kentucky look significantly less threatening than they did early in the season: The Wildcats peaked at No. 20 in the USA TODAY coaches’ poll in Week 5 but have lost all three games since, and preseason No. 9 Clemson has four ACC losses for the first time since 2010.

Because every game left on the schedule is a must-win, Kentucky will be the first hurdle. The Wildcats are led by Vanderbilt transfer Ray Davis, who currently leads the SEC with 823 rushing yards. However, transfer quarterback Devin Leary has been massively underwhelming compared to his performance at NC State in 2022, and he is interception-prone with an SEC-high seven. The Gamecocks haven’t forced a turnover since a Week 5 interception at Tennessee, so they’re overdue for some good luck there.

Clemson looks like a coin flip as quarterback Cade Klubnik continues to struggle, and star running backWill Shipley’s injury could be devastating for the Tigers if it’s a long-term issue. There’s no question that Clemson is far more talented than South Carolina on paper, but that was also true last season when the Gamecocks ended the Tigers’ 40-game home win streak. The state’s most-heated rivalry will almost certainly be a sellout at Williams-Brice, and South Carolina has enough tricks in the bag to make things chaotic.

Follow South Carolina football beat reporter Emily Adams on X @eaadams6 and subscribe to The Greenville News for exclusive Gamecocks content: https://subscribe.greenvilleonline.com/offers.

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