South-Carolina
Jacksonville State vs. South Carolina Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 11-4-2023
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The Jacksonville State Gamecocks and South Carolina Gamecocks will square off on Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium. Kickoff is at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Jacksonville State (7-2 SU, 6-2-1 ATS, 3-6 O/U) beat Florida International 41-16 in its last game. It’s in second place in Conference USA with a 5-1 conference record.
South Carolina (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U) lost 30-17 to Texas A&M last Saturday. It’s in sixth place in the SEC East standings with a 1-5 conference mark.
USC is a 15.5-point spread favorite and the game total is 54.5 points.
Injury Report
J’Ville State: RB J’wan Evans (ribs) is out.
South Carolina: RB Bradley Dunn (lower body) and WR Antwane Wells Jr. (foot) are out. TE Trey Knox (undisclosed), WR Ahmarean Brown (hamstring), and OL Vershon Lee (undisclosed) are questionable, and WR Xavier Legette (ankle) is probable.
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Jax State is 8th nationally in rushing offense
Jacksonville State is having a successful season, with its only losses coming to Coastal Carolina and Liberty. In its last game, it ran over Florida International, rushing for 265 yards en route to a 25-point road victory. Senior quarterback Zion Webb led the way with 230 total yards and three total touchdowns. The Panthers were held to just 31 rushing yards on 40 carries.
Webb paces the Gamecocks’ aerial attack with 744 yards (50.0% CMP%), three touchdowns, and three interceptions. He has also racked up 460 rushing yards and four rushing scores. Webb’s top receiving target is senior wide receiver Perry Carter (20 receptions for 352 yards and two TDs), and senior running back Malik Jackson leads the JSU ground game (113 carries for 615 yards and four TDs).
Jacksonville State scores 28.6 points per game (65th) and averages 376.9 total yards (76th), including 159.7 passing yards (121st) and 217.2 rushing yards (8th). It converts 36.5 percent of its third-down attempts (88th) and scores on 77.7 percent of its red zone trips (100th).
The Gamecocks surrender 18.8 points (22nd) and 347.8 total yards (48th) per game, including 231.8 passing yards (73rd) and 115.7 rushing yards (30th). They have 30 sacks and 11 interceptions this season. Their opponents have converted 33.5 percent of their third downs (27th) and scored on 89.4 percent of their trips to the red zone (101st).
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Should USC be worried about the other Gamecocks?
South Carolina has struggled to find its footing this season, dropping four straight and all but one of its conference games. In its latest game, it managed just 209 total yards, including 33 rushing yards on 28 carries. Texas A&M dominated time of possession by 13 minutes and was perfect (4-for-4) on fourth-down attempts.
Senior quarterback Spencer Rattler leads the USC aerial attack with 2,117 passing yards (69.5% CMP%), 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions. His top target is senior wide receiver Xavier Legette (41 receptions for 756 yards and three TDs). Senior running back Mario Anderson leads the Gamecocks with 468 rushing yards on 92 carries (5.1 YPC).
South Carolina scores 25.4 points per game (82nd) and averages 369.5 total yards (79th), including 283.4 passing yards (27th) and 86.1 rushing yards (128th). It converts 30.8 percent of its third-down attempts (115th) and scores on 87.5 percent of its red zone trips (42nd).
The Gamecocks give up 31.5 points (109th) and 435.0 total yards (117th) per game, including 297.1 passing yards (130th) and 137.9 rushing yards (59th). They have 16 sacks and six interceptions this season. USC’s opponents have converted 42.1 percent of their third downs (95th) and scored on 85.2 percent of their visits to the red zone (76th).
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This game should be closer than 16 points, as the visitors are talented enough to give South Carolina a run for their money. J’Ville State averages over 215 rushing yards per game and has played well against solid competition. USC’s opponents have fared well on third down and in the red zone, and while vulnerable through the air (130th pass defense), their run defense is solid (59th run defense). If South Carolina’s pass defense can’t hold up, Jacksonville State’s dominant ground game will benefit, helping it wear down SC for big play runs.
The deciding factor in this game will be whether Jacksonville State’s pass defense can hold up well enough to slow down Rattler. J’Ville State ranks 73rd against the pass and the South Carolina QB can sling the football. However, if the visitors can make at least a few plays, their 30th-ranked run defense will keep South Carolina from running away with the game. Limiting the Gamecocks on the ground will allow J-State (30 sacks) to get after Rattler and should lead to longer third-down plays, which SC does not convert consistently (115th nationally).
Prediction: J’Ville State +15.5
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The visiting Gamecocks rank 18th nationally in plays per game (75.5) and have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, which should help them keep pace on the scoreboard. Jacksonville State has performed consistently well this season, falling to only Coastal Carolina and Liberty in close games. I bet they will have plenty of fun on Saturday against the USC defense, keeping fans hoping for a comfortable win on the edges of their seats.
South Carolina ranks 64th nationally in plays per game, averaging five fewer plays than J’Ville State. That discrepancy isn’t too big, though, and should lead to a fast-paced game between these teams. The Gamecocks will have success through the air against this Conference USA secondary, which should lead to quicker scoring drives.
I’ll bet the over at 54.5!
Prediction: Over 54.5