South Carolina is making its fifth consecutive trip to the Final Four and the seventh in program history. This year they will be returning to the scene of their first Final Four – the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. South Carolina fell short in the 2015 Final Four when Tiffany Mitchell was unable to connect on a difficult shot against Muffin McGraw’s Fighting Irish on the game’s final play. Connecticut cut down the nets in 2015 and are favored to do so again ten years later. While this number changes as the money pours in, UConn is the favorite at -155. The Gamecocks are next at +250 followed by UCLA at +750 and Texas at +850. To provide a point of reference for those numbers: in 2023: the unbeaten Gamecocks were -330 and LSU (eventually champion) was +700. So while UConn is the favorite, it’s not by nearly as much as the Gamecocks have been the last two seasons or like Huskies were in the early-to-mid 2010s.

Below are some of our thoughts on the field of four and the last weekend of basketball. Gamecock Scoop and Alan Cole will be following the Gamecocks in Tampa and will have extensive coverage throughout Carolina’s hopeful championship run.

Let’ start with the Gamecocks. For most of the tournament South Carolina’s defense has shown up. Duke exploited the Gamecocks out of the halftime break but for the most part Carolina’s defense hasn’t been the problem. In the last three games, the Gamecocks haven’t gotten into transition to score easy baskets. (A few MiLaysia Fulwiley moments aside), and Carolina’s half-court offense has been stagnant. Carolina can beat Texas the with the way they’ve played the last three rounds, because Texas plays a very similar style, but they won’t beat UCLA or UConn. The Gamecocks were 7-for-23 from 3-point range in Birmingham and Te-Hina Paopao is averaging 7.3 points per game in this tournament. Both of those number must improve if South Carolina is going to cut down another set of nets. The Gamecocks have needed 4th quarter comebacks the last two rounds. With UCLA’s size, Texas’ smothering defense and UConn’s incredibly efficiency- 4th quarter comebacks will be a tall task in Tampa.

UCLA enjoys an advantage that the Gamecocks have the last four seasons, a player that presents a physical mismatch for everyone else in the field. Lauren Betts is 6’7 and is averaging 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds a game. When teams try to collapse on Betts, the Bruins have four guards that shoot over 35% from three including junior star Kiki Rice.

Paige Bueckers is doing everything that Caitlyn Clark did last year but unlike the Hawkeyes, the Huskies have two other potential top WNBA Draft picks on their roster to fall back on. Azzi Duff, I mean Fudd, looks healthy and Sarah Strong is the freshman of the year. UConn ranks in the top five in the country in field goal percentage (No. 1), points per play and per 100 possessions (No. 1), 3-point percentage (No. 5), assists per game (No. 3), fewest turnovers per game (No. 3) and margin of victory (No. 1). UConn is short team without a true dominant post. Betts and Bruins might be the toughest matchup for the Huskies of their three possible opponents.

The Gamecocks have seen Texas three times, splitting a home-and-home in the regular and in the finals of the SEC Tournament. They know each other. From the three matchups this season, if you can control Madison Booker, you are going to beat the Horns. Texas just doesn’t have another scorer that scares quality opponents. The Longhorns also do not shoot the three ball well. If an opponent can build a double-digit lead early, Texas will struggle to make up ground. The Horns are tenacious on defense and are an excellent rebounding team.

Stephen: I’ve ridden with the Gamecocks throughout this tournament, but you’d have to have been blind to say that the UConn Huskies haven’t looked like the better the team the last two months. On February 16th, walking out of the CLA after witnessing UConn roll the Gamecocks by 29, I dismissed it as a one-off. A game which the Gamecocks played poorly and Connecticut played its’ best game in almost a decade. Now it looks like it was the first time that UConn was fully healthy this season and a showcase for that they were capable of. South Carolina can still beat UConn, as can UCLA, but right now Connecticut looks like the country’s best/hottest team. UConn over Carolina.

Alan: I think I have to side with Stephen on this one. UConn has not only been playing the best basketball in the country for the last month, but continued to improve throughout the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have looked a little better every weekend, while South Carolina’s halfcourt offense has been invisible nearly the entire tournament other than the Tennessee Tech game and the second half against Indiana. Can it come back? For sure. And I wll never fully write off a Dawn Staley team. But right now it feels like UConn’s to lose, and i think UConn beats South Carolina.