The Oklahoma Sooners are off to a great start in the 2023 season. They’re 5-0 heading into the Red River Showdown. Sure, there are things that they can continue to improve on, but you can’t ask for a better start to the season than that.
They’re winning by an average margin of 36.6 points per game. The Sooners have only allowed 20 points one time this season. Their closest margin of victory through five games is 14 points. And that was in a game where they didn’t allow a touchdown.
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The defense is allowing just 10.8 points per game this season, which is fifth in the nation in scoring defense. The offense is scoring 47.4 points per game this season, good for third in the nation behind USC and Oregon.
The Sooners are the only team in the nation in the top five in scoring offense and defense in 2023.
That’s a big reason why the ESPN Matchup Predictor likes the Oklahoma Sooners so much. They’re plying good football on both sides of the ball. But let’s take a look at how the ESPN Matchup Predictor sees the rest of the Sooners’ schedule playing out.
Oct. 7: Texas Longhorns (Dallas)
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 54.2% (Up from 53.9%)
All-Time Series: Texas leads 63-50-5
Projected running record: 6-0
Oct. 14: Bye Week
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
If the Oklahoma Sooners were able to get to the bye week undefeated after a win over Texas they’d be a team you’d have to start taking seriously for the College Football Playoff.
The Sooners will be the underdog and it will be a tough game, but this team is going to be much better prepared for the Red River Showdown than they were a year ago.
Oct. 21: UCF Knights (Norman)
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 91% (Up from 86.9%)
All-Time Series: First meeting between the two teams.
Projected running record: 7-0
Oct. 28: Kansas Jayhawks (Lawrence)
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium (Lawrence)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 91.4% (Up from 89.6%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 80-27-6
Projected running record: 8-0
Nov. 4: BEDLAM – Oklahoma State (Stillwater)
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Boone Pickens Stadium (Stillwater)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 94.6% (Up from 93.1%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 91-19-7
Projected running record: 9-0
Nov. 11: West Virginia Mountaineers (Norman)
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 94.5% (Up from 94.4%)
All-Time Series: 11-3
Projected running record:10-0
Nov. 18: BYU Cougars (Provo)
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 92.5% (Up from 92.3%)
All-Time Series: BYU leads 2-0
Projected running record: 11-0
Nov. 24: TCU Horned Frogs (Norman)
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 88.5% (Up from 85.6%)
All-Time Series: 17-6
Projected running record: 12-0
Analysis
Nathan Fisk, The Oklahoman
The Sooners gained win probability points in every game the remainder of the season after the win over Iowa State.
Of the Sooners remaining seven games in the regular season, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives them a win probability greater than 90%. In the other two games, the Sooners have a 54.2% win probability against Texas and an 88.5% win probability against TCU.
OU-Texas is regularly a coin-flip game. That Oklahoma is the projected winner says a lot about this team’s defensive improvement in 2023.
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