Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The college football season seems to be flying by already, right?
Here we are, in Week 4, and we’ve already got some huge games on tap.
It’s mainly due to conference realignment, but still.
In addition, USC will make their Big Ten debut this Saturday as they face Michigan in the big house.
Utah @ Oklahoma State (4 p.m. ET, Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
You will not find a bigger fan of the Utah program who did not attend than me. I covered Utah for six seasons on Pac-12 radio with a co-host who played for the Utes.
I love everything head coach Kyle Whittingham’s program has become. Tough, physical, gritty and a pain in the ass for every team they play. With that being said, we have to discuss the elephant in the room.
Utah has not won a big road or neutral-site game since the Utes beat 17th-ranked Arizona State in 2019. That Sun Devil team finished less than .500 in conference play for the rest of that season.
Quarterback Cam Rising’s home and road win-loss record drives the point home even further.
He’s 13-0 when starting a game at home; he’s 7-6 when starting a game on the road or at a neutral site. There are two Rose Bowl losses in the six overall, with Rising not being able to finish those games. There are two road losses to ranked teams, including Oregon and UCLA in 2022. There’s the Florida loss that can be pinned on a poor defensive performance and a late Rising interception as Utah looked to take the lead.
The final road loss was at Oregon State in 2021.
It’s difficult to come up with concrete reasons why Utah has struggled on the road compared to at home. The Utes do the things one would think are important on the road. They are excellent in the trenches and play good defense. Cam Rising throws a tad more interceptions, but it’s not anything eye-popping.
The reason I believe Utah struggles on the road is its inability to generate explosive passing plays, which is something you need against a quality opponent in a road setting. Cam has only nine touchdown passes in his six road losses. Playing the dink and dunk game on offense takes too long and leaves you vulnerable to making mistakes on offense.
Utah may catch a break with Oklahoma State’s defense, though. The Pokes have allowed the third-most plays of 10 yards or more through three weeks of the season. They are 125th in plays allowed over 20 yards. My point is that this Pokes defense can be had, but Utah has not shown the ability over the years to be consistent in throwing down the field.
I have worried about the Utes’ run defense as they’ve had more defensive linemen and linebackers go to the NFL. It just hasn’t been as good, and on paper, Oklahoma State should be able to run the ball. However, it has been a poor rushing squad so far this season. Ollie Gordon is averaging only 3.5 yards per attempt compared to 6.1 last season. It’s an issue for the Pokes, and it’s difficult to know whether they can just go back to rushing the ball well this weekend.
That being said, I have to take the points with Oklahoma State in this game with Utah’s track record of playing away from home with Cam Rising as the quarterback. It’s not a small sample size either.
Give me Oklahoma State +1.5
PICK: Oklahoma State (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)
Lincoln Riley talks USC-Michigan, Miller Moss’ development
USC @ Michigan (3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, CBS)
How does the saying go? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Well, I must feel no shame because I’m going back to Michigan this weekend after the Wolverines did not cover against Texas or Arkansas State in their last two games.
Michigan is the right side, even if it’s ugly. The Wolverines benched Davis Warren in favor of Alex Orji because Warren could not stop throwing the ball to the other team. While Orji may not be the passer that Warren was supposed to be, this does not mean the offense won’t be able to function with Orji taking over.
Michigan may turn its offense into an RPO, QB-run and play-action pass squad. USC’s run defense has not been challenged this season, and Michigan has the bulk upfront to possibly make this game ugly by running the ball.
The Trojans offense has been crushing it with Miller Moss through two games, and they’re off a bye.
SC will have something for Michigan, and if the Trojans start fast, it may be over for the Wolverines because they do not have the ability to come back from a large deficit. However, I’m not sure USC is ready to face a Michigan defense that’s this physical.
That physicality bothered USC last season, and without circus plays, I don’t know if SC can move the ball that well against UM.
Finally — and this is one of the toughest parts about handicapping a game — you have to consider the emotions of college football players.
Everyone is “out” on Michigan after getting blown out by Texas and narrowly beating Arkansas State. This is the time to buy in on Michigan. The Wolverines still have talented players and a coaching staff that still knows how to coach. I like Michigan to cover.
PICK: Michigan (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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