Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper holds a commanding double-digit lead in the latest poll of North Carolina’s closely watched Senate race, which is seen as one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities in the 2026 midterm elections.
The new survey data released Monday by Tipp Insights for the League of American Workers shows Cooper with 48 percent compared to 24 percent who support former Republican National Committee (RNC) chair Michael Whatley. An additional 27 percent are undecided.
Why It Matters
While Democrats are hoping to perform well in the upcoming 2026, based on consistent over performance in 2025 elections and the historical trend of the opposition party to the president generally winning seats in the midterm, they face a difficult map as they aim to win control of the Senate. The party needs to flip at least four Republican-held seats without losing any they currently hold.
North Carolina is one of the few states Democrats are optimistic about, as it has become increasingly purple in recent cycles. With incumbent GOP Senator Thom Tillis retiring, and a popular former governor running for the Democrats, the party believes a win may be within reach this cycle.
What To Know
Tipp’s latest poll was conducted from January 12 to 15 and included 1,512 registered voters. In addition to Cooper’s 24-point lead over Whatley, the Democrat was viewed favorably by a majority of respondents.
More than half (54 percent) of voters hold a favorable view of Cooper, compared with 25 percent for the GOP contender. However, 43 percent said they still weren’t sure about Whatley and nearly a third, 32 percent, said they view him unfavorably. Notably, that is slightly higher than the 31 percent who said they hold an unfavorable view of the former governor.
What Previous North Carolina Polls Show
A poll by High Point University’s Survey Research Center, conducted in November and released in December, showed that more North Carolina voters currently plan to back a Democrat in the 2026 Senate race than a Republican. The poll asked voters in the state, “If the elections for U.S. Senate were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for U.S. Senate?”
Forty-six percent of survey respondents said they’d back a Democrat, while 41 percent said they’d support a Republican—a lead of 5 points for Democrats. An additional 4 percent supported a candidate from “another party,” and 9 percent said they were “unsure.”
The poll included 1001 adults in North Carolina, of whom 783 self-identified as registered voters. The survey was carried out from November 11 to 17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
A Carolina Journal poll conducted by Harper Polling of 600 likely voters in November found Cooper leading Whatley. Voters backed Cooper 47 percent to Whatley’s 38.6 percent. Prior to that, an Emerson College survey from July showed Cooper leading Whatley by 6 points, 47 percent to 41 percent. That survey included 1,000 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Jeff Allen, Cooper’s campaign manager, told Newsweek in December: “A Democrat has not won statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly two decades and we know this race will be very close, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate.”
Michael Whatley said in an interview with Breitbart published last month: “And there’s a true swing vote, but that, that middle group, they care about common sense versus crazy, and the fact that my opponent, Roy Cooper, has been, over the course of his career, fighting harder for criminals and illegal aliens than he has his own constituents, is a very real issue in North Carolina.”
What Happens Next
The 2026 midterm elections are about 10 months away, with North Carolina holding its primary on March 3, 2026. Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to perform better in midterms. Democrats also overperformed in 2025 special elections, giving them hope that they could potentially flip the House and possibly the Senate next year.
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