Kamala Harris ties Donald Trump in state he won in 2016 and 2020: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled even with former President Donald Trump in North Carolina, a state he carried in both 2016 and 2020, according to a new poll released on Sunday.

The YouGov Blue survey, conducted on behalf of Carolina Forward, shows Harris and Trump deadlocked at 46 percent each among likely voters in the Tar Heel State. The poll, which sampled 802 voters online from August 5 to 9 has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

This latest poll result represents a significant shift in a state that has been reliably Republican in recent presidential elections. Trump, the GOP’s presidential nominee, won North Carolina by 3.6 percentage points in 2016 against former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and by a narrower 1.3-point margin in 2020 against President Joe Biden. The state’s 16 electoral votes, increased from 15 after the 2020 Census, makes it a crucial battleground amid this year’s election.

The survey comes as Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, enters the race following Biden’s withdrawal on July 21. While Trump and Harris are tied among decided voters, they survey shows that 4 percent of respondents remain undecided, with an additional 1 percent undecided among third-party options. This leaves a small, but potentially crucial bloc of voters up for grabs in what could be one of 2024’s most hotly contested states.

Newsweek has contacted Harris’ campaign as well Trump’s spokesperson via email on Saturday for comment.

Third-party candidates appear to be making minimal impact in North Carolina thus far. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnered 2 percent support, while other candidates like Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Chase Oliver registered negligible support. This low third-party support contrasts with the 2016 election, where Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 2.74 percent of the vote in North Carolina.

North Carolina’s political landscape has been evolving over the past few decades. The state voted almost exclusively Democratic from 1876 through 1964 before shifting to a Republican stronghold beginning in 1968. This shift was part of the broader “Southern Strategy” employed by the Republican Party, which appealed to white conservative voters in the South who were uncomfortable with the civil rights legislation passed in the mid-1960s.

The state briefly went blue in 2008 when former President Barack Obama carried it by a razor-thin margin of about 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast (49.7 to 49.4 percent). This was the second closest race of the 2008 election, behind only Missouri. However, North Carolina flipped back to the GOP in 2012, with Mitt Romney defeating Obama by about 2 percent.

North Carolina’s rapidly growing urban areas have been trending Democratic in recent years, while rural regions remain deeply Republican. The suburbs, particularly around major cities like Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham, could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 election in the state.

The current poll’s tie between Harris and Trump reflects the state’s position as a true battleground. North Carolina’s demographic changes, including an influx of out-of-state residents to its urban areas and a growing minority population, have gradually shifted its political dynamics.

However, the poll did not provide detailed demographic breakdowns, leaving questions about which groups are driving the current tie between Harris and Trump in the state. Factors such as the urban-rural divide, education levels, and racial demographics have played significant roles in recent North Carolina elections and will likely be key in 2024 as well.

The economy and immigration remain top issues for voters nationwide, and North Carolina is likely no exception. The state’s diverse economy, which includes strong banking, technology, and agricultural sectors, means that economic policies could be a decisive factor for many voters.

What Other Polls Show

While this YouGov Blue poll shows a tie between the two, other recent surveys in North Carolina paint a different picture. A Trafalgar Group poll conducted from August 6 to 8, which surveyed 1,082 likely voters, showed Trump leading with 49 percent to Harris’ 45 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percent. Similarly, a Cygnal poll from August 4 to 5 puts Trump ahead at 47 percent compared to Harris’ 44 percent. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.

On the national level, Harris appears to have an edge. According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll aggregator, Harris leads with 45.7 percent to Trump’s 43.4 percent as of Sunday afternoon.