Donald Trump retakes slim lead in North Carolina polling average

Donald Trump has retaken the lead in North Carolina, according to polling.

FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker showed Harris take the lead in the state for the first time last Thursday when she was 0.2 points ahead of Trump. On Friday, she was 0.4 points ahead, on 45.8 percent to the former president’s 45.4 percent.

However, Trump has now retaken the lead, per the poll aggregator, which shows him 0.3 points ahead, on 45.8 percent to Harris’s 45.5 percent.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

It comes after the most recent poll in the state, conducted by SoCal Strategies between August 26 and 27, showed that Trump has a 4-point lead over Harris among 612 likely voters, on 50 percent to Harris’s 46 percent. The poll had a 95 confidence level.

Trump’s lead over Harris among likely voters is powered by his influence among male (55 percent-41 percent) and white voters (57 percent-39 percent), according to the poll. He also leads Harris among independents, with 54 percent to her 37 percent.

Before Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign on July 21, Trump was leading the president in every poll in the state by between 2 points and 12 points.

However, the lead began to fade when Harris took Biden’s place atop the Democratic ticket. The vice president first saw a lead in North Carolina in a poll conducted between July 26 and August 2 by The Cook Political Report, which gave her a 2-point lead over Trump among likely voters when third-party candidates were included.

Since then, polls in North Carolina have shown Trump with only a lead of between 1 point to 4 points, while other polls have shown the two candidates neck and neck in the state, or Harris in the lead. RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Trump with a 0.9-point lead in the state.

The tight margins mean that North Carolina is no longer the closest state in the presidential race, according to FiveThirtyEight.

It is also the second most likely state to be the tipping point state in November, with an 11 percent likelihood. A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote.

“The Trump campaign can’t afford to let North Carolina slip,” Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter said on the organization’s website. “If Harris were to win just North Carolina and the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, she could afford to lose every other competitive Sun Belt state—Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona—and still win the Electoral College vote.”

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model shows that the Republicans are projected to secure a victory in the state, with a 0.4-point margin.

North Carolina has voted Republican in the last three presidential elections.

It is considered a swing state because of its close margins and its history of electing Democratic governors. Seven of the last eight gubernatorial races have gone blue in the state.