Why Mississippi State upset of OU in super regional was so unlikely in 10 crazy stats

• Mississippi State softball defeated Oklahoma in a super regional game, overcoming significant odds.
• The Bulldogs scored nine runs in the final two innings to secure an 11-9 comeback victory.
• Before this game, Mississippi State had never won a super regional game or beaten Oklahoma.

By nearly every metric, Mississippi State softball was the underdog in its NCAA Tournament super regional matchup with Oklahoma.

The No. 3 seed Sooners (51-9) hadn’t lost a super regional game since 2015. That is until the Bulldogs (42-18) came back to beat Oklahoma 11-9 on May 22 at Love’s Field in Norman. Mississippi State scored nine runs in the final two innings to win.

The Bulldogs’ win seemed unlikely for a number of reasons. They were playing in just their second super regional while the Sooners were playing their 19th. Mississippi State had never even won a super regional game. Oklahoma had won 18 straight and hadn’t lost one since 2015.

Entering the day, Oklahoma had lost just one game at home this season. Mississippi State was 0-11 against the Sooners all-time, and eight of those losses came under coach Samantha Ricketts, who was an All-American at Oklahoma.

Even Oklahoma’s uniform combination was a recipe for success. The Sooners were 11-0 when wearing white tops and red bottoms.

As if the odds against Mississippi State entering the first game of the best-of-three series weren’t stacked high enough, the statistical improbability of the Bulldogs’ win appeared to grow as the game went on.

According to ESPN, since 2000, the Sooners were 77-0 when leading by four or more runs in a regional or super regional game. Oklahoma led 5-1 in the third inning and 6-2 in the fourth.

This season, Oklahoma was 14-0 when leading after six innings. Mississippi State was 1-15 when trailing after six innings. The Sooners led 9-6 entering the sixth inning thanks to a three-run home run hit by star freshman Kendall Wells.

They were also 42-2 when scoring at least six runs and 31-1 when totaling at least 10 hits. Wells’ home run was hit No. 11.

Still, the Bulldogs found a way to buck all of these trends to take Game 1. Now, Mississippi State has a chance to qualify for the Women’s College World Series for the first time if they recreate this same magic in Game 2 May 23 (noon CT, ESPN).

Tia Reid covers Jackson State sports for the Clarion Ledger. Email her at treid@usatodayco.com and follow her on X @tiareid65.