Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Odds, Picks, Predictions | CFB Betting Guide

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Odds

Rivalry week usually encompasses a slew of high-profile video games between top-25 groups. The typical school soccer client is aware of the Egg Bowl at all times supplies the very best type of leisure.

The fallout of the sport could be excessive prefer it was in 2019. That recreation dubbed “The Piss, the Miss and the Double Dismiss” noticed the top of two teaching regimes and the start of Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin eras at Mississippi State and Ole Miss, respectively.

Ole Miss leads this collection all-time at 64-45-6, as Kiffin has gotten one of the best of Leach over the earlier two seasons.

Each Mississippi State and Ole Miss want wins to maneuver up the bowl ladder of locations. Our personal Brett McMurphy’s newest bowl projections have the Bulldogs within the Las Vegas Bowl, with Ole Miss taking part in within the newly-branded Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.

Contemplating the Rebels are conscious that Kiffin might be poached, this can be the final iteration of the Thanksgiving Egg Bowl between these two coaches.

Leach is ready to conclude his third season in Starkville with a 3rd straight journey to a bowl recreation. Exterior of profitable the rivalry recreation, the Bulldogs look to safe a third-place end within the SEC West with a tiebreaker over Ole Miss.

There haven’t been many surprises on the schedule for Mississippi State, which misplaced each video games as an underdog and gained seven of its 9 video games as a favourite. Each recreation in Starkville has gone over the full, whereas each street recreation has gone below.

Quarterback Will Rogers added a handful of touchdowns towards East Tennessee State final week, giving the junior 32 scores towards 5 interceptions.

Rogers has not dedicated a turnover-worthy play prior to now two video games that features one towards Georgia’s protection. The earlier 5 video games have been uneven for the quarterback, as he threw 9 turnover-worthy performs that resulted in a pair of interceptions towards Auburn and Kentucky.

Leach’s Air Raid idea brings a 70% move fee at a brief common depth of goal of six yards.

4 totally different skill-position gamers have not less than 50 targets, together with working again Jo’quavious Marks. Large receiver Rara Thomas has been essentially the most explosive goal at 2.1 yards per route run.

Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett is in his third season of implementing the 3-3-5 scheme. State’s numbers towards the push and creating stress on quarterbacks are usually depressed, however the Bulldogs protection has been top-25 in Early Downs Success Charge.

Prime-40 ranks in protection and Ending Drives present that the Bulldogs are keen to surrender the center of the sphere earlier than stiffening in opponent scoring alternatives.

Edge Tyrus Wheat is the title to observe on protection, creating almost twice as many pressures as some other defender this season.

Lengthy gone are the times of the Matt Corral run-pass choice that give a good mixture of performs to the bottom and air. Quarterback Jaxson Dart is working the identical formation, however the Rebels have elevated to a 63% Rush Charge.

The 2-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans have mixed for twenty-four touchdowns and greater than 2,200 dashing yards.

Each Judkins and Evans produce greater than 3.5 yards after contact. Solely 5 working backs in FBS have created extra missed tackles than Judkins, placing a premium on tackling and Defensive Line Yards for the Bulldogs.

The problems start when Ole Miss will get delayed, because the Rebels are a top-25 explosive group in commonplace downs however a bottom-25 explosive group in passing downs.

Dart has seen stress in additional than a 3rd of his dropbacks this season, as his adjusted completion proportion drops 25%.

Contemplating the bar was low upon Kiffin’s arrival, the protection has continued to enhance all through the transition from DJ Durkin to Chris Partridge and Maurice Crum.

The Rebels have improved to develop into a top-40 move rush group, additionally rating top-10 in limiting rush explosiveness. The scheme run at Ole Miss could be gentle within the field, however the Rebels have excelled in limiting explosive performs.

Regardless of the advance on protection, the red-zone execution has been poor. Ole Miss has fallen to 123rd in opponent red-zone scoring, permitting 37 of its 40 opponent makes an attempt to finish with factors.

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Matchup Evaluation

Toggle the dropdowns beneath to cover or present how Mississippi State and Ole Miss match up statistically:

Knowledge through CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Professional Soccer Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Betting Choose

The primary handicap focuses on Mississippi State’s entrance seven stopping Ole Miss’ floor assault. Regardless of working a three-man entrance, the Bulldogs are top-30 in Stuff Charge.

The troubles come behind the road of scrimmage, as Mississippi State ranks seventieth in Line Yards and ninety fifth towards the explosive rush. With a deal with rank of fifty fifth nationally, the Bulldogs could stuff Judkins and Evans a half-dozen instances whereas additionally permitting an equal variety of explosive runs.

For Mississippi State to increase drives and make the most of Ole Miss’ poor red-zone protection, Rogers should discover his targets in short-range passing.

The Rebels have two defensive backs graded within the prime 200 of protection defenders, per PFF. Deantre Prince has been a top quality cornerback this season, forcing seven move breakups in a zone-heavy scheme. All eyes on the protection can be on the second-best defender, AJ Finley, who has taken extra snaps at slot cornerback within the earlier 4 video games.

Motion Community initiatives the Egg Bowl to favor Ole Miss by six factors. Heavy steam has hit the market on Mississippi State in early wagering, as rumors of Kiffin’s transfer to Auburn have continued.

The Bulldogs will hand over explosives to Ole Miss’ working backs. However with a greater third-down protection and red-zone numbers, the scoring can be gentle.

As for Mississippi State, the flexibility to burn zone protection with brief crossing routes places an emphasis on Ole Miss’ tackling means. The Rebels have been above common in limiting explosive performs, notably in lengthy down and distances.

This recreation will go all the way down to the wire, however the Bulldogs possess the Stuff Charge wanted to money one other below on the street. Search for Ole Miss at a discipline purpose or much less, as each groups will scramble for factors within the first half.