Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Prediction: Surging Bulldogs Take on the Wounded Wildcats

The No. 22-ranked Kentucky Wildcats are set to host the No. 16-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday evening in Lexington for an attractive Prime 25 matchup between SEC crossover rivals.

School Soccer Predictions for Each Sport in Week 7

Kentucky will look to rebound after struggling back-to-back convention losses in opposition to Ole Miss and South Carolina during the last two weeks. Following the heartbreaking 22-19 loss to the Rebels on the street, the Wildcats struggled mightily with out star quarterback Will Levis in a 24-14 dwelling loss to the Gamecocks final Saturday evening. Freshman quarterback Kaiya Sheron crammed in for the injured Levis, throwing for 178 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his debut. However he additionally threw an interception and was sacked six instances because the operating recreation did not supply a lot assist (3.4 ypc). Now 4-2 total (1-2 SEC), Mark Stoops’ Wildcats may have a chance to get their season again on monitor with a win over a surging Mississippi State squad.

The Bulldogs enter this recreation using a wave of momentum after coming away with its third consecutive victory, dispatching Arkansas 40-17 at dwelling final Saturday. Mississippi State racked up 568 yards of complete offense, led by quarterback Will Rogers, who threw for 395 yards and three touchdowns to earn SEC Co-Offensive Participant of the Week honors. Within the course of, Rogers additionally broke Aaron Murray’s SEC profession completions document. It was a banner day for the run recreation in opposition to the Razorbacks as effectively, compiling 173 yards and three touchdowns — essentially the most speeding yards ever within the Mike Leach period. Working again Dillon Johnson led that effort to grow to be the primary 100-yard rusher beneath Leach at Mississippi State. The 5-1 (2-1 SEC) Bulldogs hope to maintain the momentum rolling on Saturday evening with their first win at Kroger Discipline since 2014.

Saturday evening’s contest will mark the fiftieth assembly between the 2 colleges. Mississippi State holds a razor-thin 25-24 lead within the sequence. The Wildcats and Bulldogs have break up the final six conferences within the sequence, with the house group coming away victorious in every of these matchups. Mississippi State received 31-17 final season in Starkville.

No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 Kentucky

Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 15 at 7:30 p.m. ET
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Unfold: Mississippi State -4
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When Mississippi State Has the Ball

Quarterback Will Rogers continues to thrive in Mike Leach’s Air Raid assault, an offense that’s averaging 38.5 factors and 461.3 yards per recreation. Rogers leads the nation in passing yards (2,110), whereas his 22 landing passes rank second. His 71.6 p.c completion fee is tops within the SEC. Rogers likes to unfold the ball round, because the Bulldogs boast six totally different cross catchers with at the very least 20 receptions by six video games. Extensive receiver Caleb Ducking leads the group in each receptions (28) and landing catches (7), whereas Rara Thomas is tops in receiving yards (368). Fellow wideouts Rufus Harvey (27 rec., 271 yds., 2 TDs) and Lideatrick Griffin (20, 239, TD) have been important contributors within the passing recreation as effectively. Griffin additionally stars within the return recreation with a formidable 31.1-yard common on kickoffs.

Whereas the run recreation is normally an afterthought in Leach’s pass-happy offense, “The Pirate” has turned extra to the bottom assault this season in an effort to be barely extra balanced and assist open up the passing recreation. Working backs Dillon Johnson (6.0 ypc) and Jo’quavious “Woody” Marks (5 speeding TDs) have been as much as the problem, whereas additionally being an integral a part of the passing recreation.

The Mississippi State offense will probably be examined in opposition to a strong Kentucky protection that’s giving up 307.2 yards and 16.3 factors per recreation, each of which rank within the high 20 nationally. The Wildcats are sixteenth within the nation in opposition to the cross, permitting simply 174.2 yards per recreation. In addition they have allowed solely three landing passes whereas recording 5 interceptions. Defensive again Carrington Valentine is presently tied for the SEC lead in cross breakups with seven.

The priority is that Kentucky has but to face a passing offense as potent as Mississippi State’s, though the Wildcats have already had their fill of Rogers. Final season, he picked UK aside for 344 yards and a landing whereas misfiring on simply three makes an attempt (36-for-39) within the Bulldogs’ 31-17 victory. A cross rush that has generated solely 9 sacks in six video games could not supply a lot assist in slowing down Rogers, particularly if the bottom recreation continues to be efficient when referred to as upon. Kentucky has missed linebacker Jacquez Jones’ presence and manufacturing on the sector whereas he is been sidelined by a foot harm.

When Kentucky Has the Ball

The Kentucky offense continues to be a piece in progress, averaging an underwhelming 356.3 yards and 26.3 factors per recreation beneath new offensive coordinator Wealthy Scangarello. The excellent news is that the Wildcats are anticipated to have star quarterback Will Levis (foot) again after sitting out final week’s recreation in opposition to South Carolina. Levis is the driving power behind the Kentucky offense. A projected first-round 2023 NFL Draft choose by some analysts, Levis has thrown for 1,405 yards with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions whereas finishing 68.8 p.c of his passes. He additionally has two scores on the bottom.

Even when he performs, Levis in all probability will not be at one hundred pc on Saturday, and the identical may be mentioned for his two favourite targets as effectively. Main extensive receiver Tayvion Robinson (25 rec., 392 yds., 3 TDs) is questionable with an undisclosed harm, whereas No. 2 receiver Dane Key (19, 291, 3) is listed as possible regardless of studies that he’s sporting a forged on his wrist. That leaves freshman standout Barion Brown (17, 288, 2) as Levis’ solely totally wholesome choice amongst his beginning wideouts. The opposite concern for the Wildcats’ offense is a line that has already surrendered 25 sacks. That is essentially the most within the SEC and the third-most sacks allowed by an FBS group.

The offensive line’s poor efficiency additionally has impacted Kentucky’s operating recreation, which is averaging 92.5 yards per recreation and has produced simply 4 speeding touchdowns. To place this in perspective, Mississippi State is gaining extra yards on the bottom per recreation (106.7) regardless of operating the ball 56 fewer instances than the Wildcats (152 makes an attempt vs. 208) up to now. The return of operating again Chris Rodriguez Jr. has helped bolster Kentucky’s speeding assault, however he is run for lower than 200 yards with one landing in his first two video games. In the meantime, main rusher Kavosiey Smoke (53 att., 269 yds. TD), has been coping with a concussion and his standing for Saturday is unknown.

Defensively, Mississippi State is permitting 21 factors and 358 yards per recreation. Groups have had extra success throwing the ball in opposition to the Bulldogs (219.5 ypg), which may bode effectively for Levis. However MSU is tied for the SEC lead with eight interceptions, led by standout cornerback Emmanuel Forbes’ 4 to go together with 10 passes defended. He leads the convention and is among the many high gamers in FBS in each classes.

Ultimate Evaluation

Dwelling-field benefit looms giant for Kentucky, with the house group profitable every of the final six conferences on this sequence. Levis additionally is predicted to be again this week, which ought to present the offense with a pleasant increase. Nonetheless, he could also be restricted to a point, and that additionally goes for 2 of his high cross catchers. Throw in a leaky offensive line and a run recreation that has but to realize a lot traction, and the Wildcats’ probabilities for a giant evening on offense seem bleak.

On the opposite aspect of the soccer, Kentucky may have its fingers full in opposition to a red-hot Rogers and a much-improved Mississippi State floor assault. To not point out the truth that Mississippi State is plus-four in turnover margin, whereas the Wildcats are minus-three. Momentum additionally favors the Bulldogs, who ought to handle to sneak out of Kroger Discipline with the win.

Prediction: Mississippi State 27, Kentucky 21

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— Written by Rob McVey, who’s a part of the Athlon Contributor Community. Observe him on Twitter @Rob_UTVOLS.

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