About a week ago, even amid Jimmy Butler rumors, the Miami Heat were enjoying their longest win streak of the season and hoping to maintain their turnaround to challenge in the Eastern Conference.
Now, they enter the holiday week having lost three in a row, with each loss highlighting a different concern. Blowing a 25-point lead against an injury-depleted Orlando Magic team certainly poses worries, even without Butler in the lineup.
Sealing the deal remains the point of the game, though.
Whether it’s closing out close games (1-6 in matchups decided by three or fewer points) or just beating good teams (5-8 against opponents .500 or better), the Heat are struggling to stand out in ways that broaden their margins. Stretches like the last three games have seen them blow an eight-point lead in overtime within two minutes (at the Detroit Pistons last Monday), lose the battle on the glass against one of the league’s worst rebounding teams (Oklahoma City on Friday) and score eight points in the final period against a team missing its two best players (Orlando on Saturday).
Even with Butler missing most of the last two games, those results aren’t reassuring. Against Detroit, he had a seemingly flawless game, but Miami still lost by one point. Coming close without the cigar is tough business for any team, but especially one capable of resembling playoff form one moment and suddenly collapsing by the next.
Entering Monday, Miami is still sixth in the East, but it’s closer to Play-In territory than consistently resembling teams who have either weathered storms without their best players (Orlando) or resemble new form after slow starts (Milwaukee is 15-12 after starting 2-8).
“Being able to close out games, a lot of that is my responsibility with Jimmy not here,” Tyler Herro said. “So I’ll be better on Monday and going forward.”
The Heat have an NBA-high six losses by one possession this season, which could pose ample regret down the stretch if the team remains on the outside looking in for postseason hopes. But beyond playing for the playoffs, rumors about Butler’s future make it even tougher to envision this team’s identity beyond this season. Miami has enjoyed great success since acquiring the six-time All-Star in 2019, but stretches like this past weekend illustrate the fine margins it must thrive with, with or without its star player.
On the season, Miami’s net rating swings by plus-8.7 points depending on Butler’s presence. The difference between him being on the court (plus-6.2 net rating) or on the bench (minus-2.5) is that of Miami being either seventh in the NBA or closer to 20th. But coach Erik Spoelstra won’t blame one variable for any loss, even if that variable has star power behind it.
Whether Butler is injured, ill or (rumored to be) traded, Spoelstra doesn’t dwell on narratives when it comes to wins or losses.
“I’m not thinking any other thought. If guys say they can go, we’re going right now,” Spoelstra said after Friday’s loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, during which Butler played only seven minutes.
From examining depth (hello, extended Kel’el Ware minutes on Saturday!) to simply staying afloat until the team is fully healthy, the Heat will need to succeed at the edges to remain viable in the East playoff picture. No matter how the Butler saga shakes out, Miami will still be relying on Herro and Bam Adebayo to hold things down as Spoelstra remains focused on how to maximize his roster, possessions and, ultimately, the team’s season.
Matchups against teams like the Brooklyn Nets (11-17) can be chances for Miami to start another win streak or simply play its best game of the season, but it would still be only one win against a relative sea of confounding defeats. At this point, how well the Heat carries things from one game to the next will determine their season, but the real test will be how well they carry things from one quarter to the next.
One night, the Heat can beat the team with the NBA’s best record (Cleveland Cavaliers), and on others, they lose two road matchups by a combined three points to a team with Play-In ambitions (Detroit). Now at .500 again, Miami’s identity this season might be stuck somewhere in the middle. No matter how strong its glimpses of potential may seem, inexplicable lapses can only make it harder to maximize a path upward in the East standings or assess how to best retool for the future.
At this point, the best case for the team (and fans) is to simply take it all one day at a time.
(Photo of Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson: Fernando Medina / Getty Images )
