Miami, FL
Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat (January 21, 2024): 3 Things To Watch, Odds and Prediction
6P. 24-18. Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Sun. Magic Heat Matchup 01.21.24. 38. 110. Jan. 21, 2024. 22-20. Magic by 1 (O/U 215.5)
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Tickets: $49-$3,651 on StubHub
Season Series: Heat 115, Magic 106 in Orlando on Dec. 20; Heat 99, Magic 96 in Miami on Jan. 12; Tonight in Orlando; Feb. 6 in Miami
|
Pace |
Off. Rtg. |
Def. Rtg. |
eFG% |
O.Reb.% |
TO% |
FTR |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Miami |
97.8 |
113.8 |
113.0 |
53.9 |
27.1 |
13.7 |
27.8 |
|
Orlando |
99.1 |
112.2 |
111.5 |
52.9 |
30.2 |
14.8 |
30.2 |
Our Record: 27-15/22-20 ATS
Everyone has been asking the question and wondering when this Orlando Magic team would be healthy. There has been a fair amount of frustration with the Magic’s return to injury process as they insist on trying to get players into practices and test them physically before throwing them in. And that does not even get into the lineup and rotation questions.
But it does finally look like the Magic are going to be whole again. The injury report is the cleanest it has looked since November with only Franz Wagner (QUESTIONABLE, sprained ankle) and Gary Harris (OUT, calf strain) on the report.
That may alleviate some of the concerns of the Magic’s drop in the standings. Orlando has to start getting things into high gear as they are now closer to the 9-seed than the 4-seed for the first time in months. It is about keeping pace.
The Orlando Magic also have to get over the bugaboo of their rivals in the Miami Heat. They will see Jimmy Butler for the first time this season and the Heat will have all of their offensive weapons available with Tyler Herro probable to play and Duncan Robinson available to play.
This game will come down to the Magic’s depth, which should be returning to form now with Wagner likely to return and potentially a lineup change with it. And then it will come down to whether the Magic can limit the Heat’s free throw attempts and ability to shoot from deep.
108. 38. Prediction. 106. 110. Magic Heat Prediction 01.21.24
Franz Returns?
Orlando Magic fans have been waiting for some time for Franz Wagner to get back on the court. Ever since rolling his ankle against the Sacramento Kings back on Jan. 3, it has been a struggle for this team to get going as injuries and illness followed Wagner’s absence.
It should be safe to say that these past two weeks will be the lowest this team feels all season. Or at least that has to be hope.
Here are the numbers since Wagner’s injury (including that double-overtime loss against the Kings): The Magic went 3-6 with a 109.2 offensive rating and a 113.8 defensive rating. That -4.6 net rating was 23rd in the league during that time.
It was undoubtedly a difficult stretch for the Magic. We saw Paolo Banchero have to shoulder a lot more of the offensive burden and carry the team offensively. It has been a struggle even if Banchero has grown tremendously.
But no doubt, the Magic are missing Wagner’s 20.9 points per game. The team will function better on both ends with Wagner on the floor.
Heat Seeking Depth
It is weird to think the Miami Heat are not a super deep team. They seem to pluck guys from relative obscurity. But ever since their gutsy win over the Orlando Magic a few weeks ago at Kaseya Center, the Miami Heat have struggled. Miami is just 2-2 and that includes going 1-2 since Jimmy Butler’s return from a toe injury.
Some of that has to do with injuries. Jaime Jaquez Jr., who was so critical in both of Miami’s wins over Orlando, will be OUT for Sunday’s game with a left groin strain. He scored 19 points and grabbed seven rebounds in the game a few weeks ago in Miami with the Heat down a lot of injured players too.
So far this season, Miami is 11th in the league scoring 37.3 points per game off the bench. They have lost a lot of games from teams being able to outpace them on the bench. The Magic have the fourth highest-scoring bench in the league. And getting back their depth will only help restore this team.
Free Throw Shortage
A big part of the Orlando Magic’s attack is to win the battle at the free throw line — both getting to the line and defending without fouling. And this is undoubtedly an area that the team has struggled since Franz Wagner went out — not that Wagner gets to theline a ton, but he puts pressure on teams and gets them out of position to force fouls.
The Magic are second in the league with a 30.2 percent free throw rate (essentially three free throws for every 10 field goal attempts). But since Wagner’s injury, the Magic have a 27.5 percent free throw rate. That is a significant slip considering how small the margins are for the Magic to score.
The worst part is how the defense has slipped.
Next. OMD Mailbag 01.21.24. OMD Mailbag: Looking past the midpoint of the season. dark
The Magic have given up a 28.2 percent free throw rate this season (again highlighting why the Magic need to get to the foul line). The Heat are good at getting to the foul line and a lot of this game will get determined on who can force their way to the line more.
To no one’s surprise, FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami CF engaged in a scorefest May 13 at TQL Stadium.
A hat trick by one of the best goalscorers in the history of the game, Lionel Messi, sparked Miami to a 5-3 win. Miami scored three times from the 79th minute on to come from behind.
A sellout crowd of 25,513 witnessed the showdown, the club’s sixth home sellout of the season.
FC Cincinnati falls to 4-5-4, staying at 16 points, taking its first loss since April 4 at Red Bull New York. Miami improves to 7-2-4 for 25 points, improving to 7-1-1 on the road this season. Miami moved into second place in the Eastern Conference behind Nashville. Cincinnati started the night tied for fifth but could drop depending on games later on.
Second half highlights as FC Cincinnati squandered a late lead
Cincinnati took a 3-2 lead in the 64th minute.
Evander fired a rocket from the top of the 18 into the top left corner. Deneky passed ahead to him, then he maneuvered around two defenders, and no one stepped up to him. It is Evander’s seventh goal of the season.
Miami tied it in the 80th minute, 3-3.
After a Cincy turnover, Rodrigo De Paul quickly found Messi in transition, who delivered to Mateo Silvetti. Silvetti, playing his first game in a month, maneuvered in space and scored from the top of the box for his fourth of the season.
Miami took a 4-3 lead in the 83rd. A Messi free kick from 35 yds was saved by Cincy keeper Roman Celentano. He collided with Andrei Chirila, which knocked the ball out of his hands. Miami’s German Berterame pounced on the rebound to give Miami the lead, his fourth goal of the season.
Chirila landed hard after the collision and was taken out of the game.
Miami took a 5-3 lead when Messi made a sliding shot after a cross from Silvetti. The ball went off the post, then off Roman Celentano, who was on his stomach trying to get the ball, then in. Messi was credited with the goal and a hat trick.
FC Cincinnati took a 2-1 lead in the 49th minute.
Pavel Bucha scored from close range. He took a crossing pass from Bryan Ramirez after Denkey found him on the left side in transition.
It was Bucha’s second goal of the MLS season and the second assist for Ramirez. Bucha was hit in the head late in the first half and examined by trainers, but stayed in the game.
Moments later, Messi had a free kick from 30 yards saved by Celentano.
Messi scored again in the 56th minute to tie it, 2-2. He had a nice give-and-go with Rodrigo De Paul, who dribbled near the end line and crossed to him from the right side. Messi was unmarked and scored easily from near the penalty spot.
In the 62nd minute, Luis Suarez missed an open shot that Celentano saved, set up by a quick transition by Miami.
Miami ended with 17 shots to 10 for Cincinnati, six on target. After an even first half, Miami controlled the expected-goals mark, with 4 to 1.6 for the home team.
First half highlights
Messi scored from close range in the 24th off a turnover by Matt Miazga. Miazga tried to pass to a teammate on the side but the pass went straight to Messi.
He had a goal in the fifth minute waved off by offsides.
In the 32nd minute, Cincinnati won a corner kick, which Evander placed right in front of the goal line but the ball was cleared away.
In the 42nd minute, a Kevin Denkey penalty kick tied it up. Denkey drew the PK after collecting a good pass into the box by Pavel Bucha and being grabbed by Gonzalo Lujan. Denkey converted for his team-high eighth goal of the season.
The first half was tied 1-1 and virtually even on statistics. Both sides had seven shots, one on goal, and 1.1 expected goals. Neither keeper made a save.
What’s next for FC Cincinnati?
Cincinnati heads to the West Coast to play San Diego FC 9:30 p.m. Saturday, May 16. It is the first meeting between the teams. San Diego, 3-5-4 for 13 points, was set to play Austin later May 13. Cincinnati will leave for California on May 14.
A wildfire has scorched over 11,000 acres in Florida’s Everglades, just outside the Miami metro suburbs, prompting officials to warn nearby residents of dangerous smoke.
The Max Road Miramar Fire is straddling the line between Miami-Dade and Broward counties. At least 11,000 acres have been burned, and the fire is 80% contained, according to the Florida Forest Service.
The fire was first reported Sunday. The Pembroke Pines Police Department said that drivers stopping to watch the fires along US-27 were causing dangerous traffic backups.
Miami-Dade Fire Rescue said they were working with state forest officials to protect nearby properties.
Florida Senator Rick Scott urged people on social media to adhere to any local road closures.
Aerial footage showed flames in the vicinity of a local subdivision, and smoke could be seen billowing for miles.
This comes in the middle of Florida’s wildfire season, which is being compounded by a historic drought ongoing across the state.
Almost 2,000 wildfires have burned nearly 120,000 acres just since the start of the year, the forest service said earlier this month.
Wildfires south of Jacksonville canceled and delayed Amtrak service last month.
While the vast majority of the state is under Exceptional or Extreme Drought conditions, Miami itself is roughly an inch below average rainfall, year-to-date.
However, parts of the Everglades are also experiencing Extreme Drought.
Fire officials are warning residents to take precautions if smoke is impacting your area. Those with respiratory conditions, older adults and children may be especially sensitive to smoke exposure.
Miami-Dade Fire Rescue is advising people to stay indoors when possible and set home and vehicle A/C systems to recirculate.
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