When attempting for instance how a lot a workforce is struggling, considered one of sportswriters’ favourite go-to’s is, “If the season ended at this time…” As in, “If the season ended at this time, the Miami Warmth would want to win two play-in video games solely to face the workforce that beat them in 2022 within the first spherical.”

One other technique to say a workforce isn’t nice is with numbers. Like, “Miami is lifeless final within the NBA in scoring.” Or, “Kyle Lowry hasn’t averaged this few assists since he was in Houston.” Age and participant improvement — or within the Warmth’s case, participant maximization — might think about. “Jimmy Butler isn’t getting any youthful, and Miami’s subsequent duo up of Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro doesn’t appear to have any extra leaps to take.”

All of that is true in South Seashore, and no one desires to jot down off the Warmth but due to the tradition and the coach. They had been 16-12 after 28 video games final season, and at 13-15, they’re not far off record-wise. It’s nonetheless life like that guile, Erik Spoelstra, and organizational stability might flip this round and get a top-four seed.

They’re in all probability not catching Boston or Milwaukee although, and any dream of a return to the convention or NBA finals might be significantly tougher than beating Atlanta and Philly to get there. The protection is high 5, and so they’ve needed to lean into it as a result of scoring is a chore proper now.

They try the eighth most threes per recreation, however are twenty fourth within the NBA in taking pictures proportion from deep. Their three-point price — primarily how a lot of the offense comes from distance — is also eighth within the league. If 41 p.c of all of your photographs come from three and also you hit simply 34 p.c of them, it’s a recipe for a dead-last offense.

Of Miami’s high 5 guys in three-point makes an attempt, just one is hitting at a clip above the .355 league common, and that’s Herro, who’s taking pictures 37.7 p.c. Nevertheless, that’s 22 factors lower than final yr. Whereas he’s handled some harm points, he’s now beginning. Different facets of manufacturing are up — assists, rebounds, two-point proportion, minutes — however he’s really taking fewer photographs in his new function.

Herro additionally may very well be falling prey to the Julius Randle “you may have our consideration, now earn our respect” phenomenon that occurs as soon as a participant will get on the radar of defenses. Opponents are focusing extra of their vitality on Herro, who’s seeing guys inside two to 4 toes on half of his photographs, up six p.c from final yr. And his open appears have been minimize in half, too, right down to 2.5 from 5.

Adebayo has really usurped Herro as Miami’s No. 2 scorer, getting 20 factors per evening for the primary time in his six-year profession. It comes with a caveat, as his playmaking from the middle place that we love has dropped off. He was as much as 5.4 dimes per contest in 2020, good for second on the workforce. That quantity is now at 3.3, and he’s fourth in assists for Miami.

Basically, the Warmth have struggled with ball motion. Following three years of ending no decrease than eleventh in assists per recreation, Miami is twenty first. Adebayo really leads the workforce in iso factors, however solely as a result of Butler has missed 10 video games already.

Lowry is meant to be the designated playmaker — a minimum of that’s what he’s getting paid $28 million to do. He’s averaging 36 minutes, one off his profession excessive, and has appeared in 27 of the 28 contests. And, like his help numbers, his level manufacturing hasn’t been this unhealthy since he was a Rocket. At any time when his hammy offers manner — and it’ll — the backup is Gabe Vincent, a degree guard by designation solely.

We’re used to the Warmth manifesting function gamers out of the D league, and the likes of Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, and Vincent are maxed out if not regressing to the imply. Robinson, the workforce’s fourth highest-paid participant, will get all of 16 minutes per recreation, Vincent is taking pictures 39 p.c from the ground, and Strus is getting 13 factors in 32 minutes per evening.

I like Caleb Martin, too, however Martin and Max taking part in 65 minutes complete per outing are miserable as fuck. Certain, Jimmy Buckets is himself when he’s on the market. He won’t have picked the most effective yr to be a jackass on class photograph day, however that’s a selection he has to reside with. Just like the entrance workplace has to reside with paying Herro, Robinson, Lowry, and Adebayo a mixed $107 million subsequent yr.

The one distinction between the Chicago Bulls — one of many saddest groups within the league — and Miami is an annoying narrative and a recreation within the standings. Spoelstra has extra issues than options, and no quantity of calisthenics or tradition goes to unravel the riddle of outdated age or an absence of expertise.

So there are myriad methods to say Miami is in hassle, and I’m fairly positive I state rattling close to each which one.