NOAA's Long-Range Winter Forecast Details Louisiana's Odds for Icy Weather

LAFAYETTE, La. (KPEL News) – After an excruciatingly hot summer, some folks in Louisiana are hoping for a cooler winter to try and take the edge off. Some (especially students throughout the state) might even be hoping for some snow days this year.

However, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-range forecast does not offer much to anyone hoping for a lot of cold and ice.

NOAA released its forecast last week, and it looks like the warm summer months will lead to warmer-than-usual winter months and fewer chances for frozen weather.

“The September-October-November (SON) 2024 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures across a majority of the contiguous U.S. with the largest probabilities (exceeding 60%) forecast for New England and parts of the Southwest,” NOAA said in an update issued on August 15. “Increased below-normal temperature probabilities are forecast for southwestern Alaska, while above-normal temperatures are more likely across northern Alaska.”

On top of that, NOAA says that “La Niña is favored to develop during September-October-November,” with a roughly 70 percent chance of that forecast happening.

How Cold Will It Be?

We don’t have exact temperatures, but NOAA is predicting that temperatures will be higher than average this winter across the southwest and along the southern border.

In other words, you might not need the heavy winterwear quite so much this year.

And if you’re looking for a snow day, there’s a chance you’ll be disappointed.

According to the NOAA forecast, the chances of precipitation across the southwest and even across the southern part of the country into southern California will be experiencing less precipitation than normal – likely due to the impacts of the La Niña system expected to develop.

The fall forecast from The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which is renowned for its long-range forecasts, cites “near-normal” temperatures for Louisiana

This means that temperatures will be in the lower 70s by the time we get to November, which will be a significant cool-off from September (upper 80s) and October (mid-70s).

But after that comes winter, and the first frost of the season is expected to hit Louisiana around the time November is ending and December is coming around.

While that first frost is comforting, it doesn’t mean a very icy winter is in the cards.

READ MORE: Farmer’s Almanac Predicts the First Frost Dates of 2024 for Louisiana

Here’s the list of first frost dates for Louisiana, so you can see how quickly we’ll start getting that cooler weather.

• Lafayette, La. – November 26, 2024

• Alexandria, La. – November 18, 2024

• Baton Rouge, La. – November 17, 2024

• Lake Charles, La. – November 28, 2024

• Monroe, La. – November 8, 2024

• Natchitoches, La. – November 21, 2024

• New Orleans, La. – December 19, 2024

• Ruston, La. – November 8, 2024

• Shreveport, La. – November 16, 2024