Renegade , the Todd Pletcher trainee, is expected to be the morning-line favorite for the 152nd Kentucky Derby (G1), but Churchill Downs morning line oddsmaker Nick Tammaro sees a wide-open race with Commandment and Further Ado forming a tightly grouped trio at the top.
“It would be foolish to ignore what’s happening in the market and the public reaction after the Arkansas Derby,” said Tammaro, who will set the Kentucky Derby morning line for the first time following the retirement of Mike Battaglia after 51 years at Churchill Downs. “Renegade has to be the favorite right now, but this isn’t a race where anyone is going to be odds-on or even close.”
Tammaro’s current projection lists Renegade at 9-2, Commandment at 5-1, and Further Ado at 6-1.
Commandment and Further Ado, both trained by Brad Cox, won their last start. Commandment took the Florida Derby (G1) over The Puma and Chief Wallabee , and Further Ado scored in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) by 11 lengths.
“I think Commandment is the most consistent horse in the field, and Further Ado fits right there as well,” Tammaro said. “In a typical race, you could make a case for any of the three on top. That’s what makes this Derby so competitive.”
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Despite installing Renegade as the likely favorite, Tammaro acknowledged the colt’s position atop the market is far from clear-cut.
“From a pure handicapping standpoint, you can argue others have stronger credentials,” Tammaro said. “But the Derby isn’t run in a vacuum. You have to account for public perception, buzz and how the money is going to flow.”
Renegade was the 4-1 favorite in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager that concluded before the running of the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 4.
Commandment was 7-1, and Further Ado was the seventh choice at 17-1 in that same pool. The latter’s odds likely would have dropped if betting had closed after his dynamic effort in the Blue Grass.
With two weeks remaining, Tammaro emphasized how quickly that picture can change.
“This is the most fluid time of the year,” Tammaro said. “A strong work, a missed work, a good gallop, and even chatter on the backside can move the market. There’s always a ‘buzz horse’ that takes more money than expected.”You’re looking at a race where the favorite could be in that 4-1 to 9-2 range, with several others right behind him. That’s the definition of a competitive Derby.”
Entries and post positions for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks (G1) will take place Saturday, April 25, between Races 3-4 on the opening day program from 2:15-2:45 p.m. ET on the Paddock Terrace (weather permitting).
This press release has been edited for content and style by BloodHorse Staff.
