Saturday Plays: Single this Kentucky Derby prospect

For bettors who assume the anticipated favourite Arctic Conceitedness can lose the $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday, there are different viable choices on this Kentucky Derby path factors race. Eight 3-year-olds are entered and set to journey the one-turn mile. 

Here’s a Every day Double linking another option within the Jerome to 2 deep closers within the $150,000 Queens County Stakes one race later.

Aqueduct Race 8: Jerome Stakes

Arctic Conceitedness desires to set the tempo, and securing that position won’t come simple for him with the sprinter Andiamo de Firenze current and more likely to outfoot him to the lead on the stretchout from six furlongs. 

Assuming Arctic Conceitedness doesn’t problem Andiamo de Firenze face to face, can he sit a few size off him, or give two or three lengths early on and anticipate Andiamo de Firenze to get drained on the lead?

Again on Oct. 30 within the native Sleepy Hole Stakes, Arctic Conceitedness did briefly lose the lead on the within earlier than combating again within the stretch to win.

Within the Remsen Stakes (G2) on Dec. 3, Arctic Conceitedness set the tempo with Dubyuhnell solely a half-length behind by way of the preliminary fractions. The 2 of them continued to battle one another on the flip and into the stretch, with Dubyuhnell ultimately successful the battle by half a size.

Whatever the loss, Arctic Conceitedness completed 11 1/4 lengths forward of Tuskegee Airmen, who began the Remsen because the 6/5 favourite.

Perhaps Arctic Conceitedness will simply inherit the lead with no drawback.

Then once more, most need-the-lead horses can’t adapt to completely different conditions, or they don’t kick in the identical means even when they achieve the lead at a later stage within the race. At this level in Arctic Conceitedness’s profession, it’s too early to say he should set the tempo, however he would possibly have to.

As well as, discover Arctic Conceitedness’s lacking work between Dec. 15 and Dec. 31. Main as much as the Remsen, he labored in seven-day intervals between Nov. 11 and 26. Each small element issues when analyzing the anticipated favourite.  

An fascinating different option to Arctic Conceitedness is Neural Community, who makes the second begin of his profession after successful a neighborhood six-furlong maiden dash on Nov. 13 by 5 lengths with stalking ways. Off the bat, Neural Community’s sort of early velocity appears extra tactical than the pacesetting Arctic Conceitedness.

From a pedigree standpoint, Neural Community is meant to deal with the additional furlong as a son of Cloud Computing out of a Road Cry mare named Lapinski. The dam line traces again to Cara Rafaela, who produced the 2006 Preakness, Travers Stakes (G1) and Jockey Membership Gold Cup (G1) winner Bernardini.

The soar from successful a maiden particular weight to competing in a Derby prep race by no means comes simple, not even on the Aqueduct a part of the path.

Nevertheless, coach Chad Brown has been profitable with this angle. For instance, Early Voting received a maiden particular weight to begin off his profession in December 2021 after which took the Withers Stakes (G3) in early February.

Early Voting’s instance is presumably unfair because the Withers date gave him time to develop. To offer one other instance, Masks broke his maiden in October 2017 after which received the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream in January.

Neural Community has had virtually two months to organize for the Jerome and reveals a largely constant worktab from Nov. 27 by way of Dec. 30. If Andiamo a Firenze and Arctic Conceitedness go too quick, he can take over.  

To briefly focus on Lugan Knight, he additionally holds a small likelihood after ending third towards Victory Formation in a Churchill Downs elective claiming race. Victory Formation went on to seize the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn.

Lugan Knight reveals a dash pedigree although with Goldencents on prime and a Speightstown mare named Sly Roxy on the underside. Sly Roxy is the daughter of Roxy Hole, who received $950k competing in largely sprints.

At 3-1 or increased, Neural Community is the choice.  

Win: 1 (at 3-1 or increased)

Double: 1 / 2,9

Aqueduct Race 9: Queens County Stakes

Assuming all the primary velocity gamers stay within the race, it’d pay to present deep closers an opportunity to beat Regulation Professor.

To offer credit score to Regulation Professor, he won’t lose simply if he repeats his runner-up end to Life Is Good within the Woodward Stakes (G1) on Oct. 1. After stalking the tempo, Regulation Professor gave Life Is Good an enormous scare across the flip, earlier than the favourite reestablished management of the lead.

On this tempo state of affairs, Sea Foam, Eloquist and Thomas Shelby appear possible to flash their velocity within the early phases of the race, which suggests the entrance half of the sector together with Regulation Professor might collapse on the far flip.  

The very best nearer seems just like the rejuvenated Unbridled Bomber, who has dominated his final two begins in a neighborhood Sept. 29 allowance race and Nov. 12 elective claimer by the identical margin of 4 3/4 lengths. Within the latter race, each horse who ran had a tag apart from Unbridled Bomber.

Earlier than these two wins, Unbridled Bomber went 11 races with just one win. What brought on the change? Some handicappers would possibly credit score Lasix, however Unbridled Bomber additionally had Lasix on Aug. 18 when he misplaced by 14 lengths.

The opposite nearer to contemplate is Bourbonic, who received the 2021 Wooden Memorial Stakes (G2) on this course earlier than ending thirteenth within the Kentucky Derby and fifth within the Belmont Stakes. Bourbonic ended his 2021 season in the newest version of the Queens County, the place he threw a clunker in seventh.  

Bourbonic went on the shelf for a 12 months and made his return in a neighborhood seven-furlong allowance race on Dec. 3. After lagging 15 lengths behind at one level, Bourbonic put in a robust rally within the stretch to complete a superb fourth by solely 4 lengths. Remember the fact that Bourbonic works finest in longer routes. He’ll recognize the stretchout again to 9 furlongs.

With the sturdy comeback in tow, Bourbonic seems set to maneuver ahead in his first begin as a 5-year-old horse and provides a peak efficiency on this spot.