March Madness Sunday predictions, odds: Kentucky vs. Kansas State, FAU

The primary four-day marathon of March Insanity involves an finish Sunday.

We now have already seen a 15-seed knock off a 2-seed and No. 1 Purdue go down within the East Area to 16-seed FDU.

We’re off to a fairly good begin.

Sunday, the ultimate spots within the Candy 16 will likely be crammed. My two preseason futures bets, Creighton (+10000) and Baylor (+1600), will face off.

I lean Baylor there, however for my bets, I went with one other recreation and Closing 4 futures with some worth.

Betting on March Insanity 2023?

Kentucky -1.5 over Kansas State (BetMGM)

Betting Kentucky this yr has been rather less painful than banging your head towards the wall for 2 hours.

The Wildcats have been inconsistent all season, however if you happen to take a look at the final month, Kentucky has proven indicators of turning issues round.

Kentucky is 6-2 over its previous eight video games, with each losses coming to Vanderbilt. The six wins aren’t hole both — the Wildcats have victories over NCAA Event groups Windfall, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Tennessee.

So, if you happen to take a look at Kentucky’s physique of labor over the previous month, it’s encouraging.

I really like Kansas State and I’m an enormous fan of head coach Jerome Tang.

The group performs exhausting each night time, and Kentucky might want to match Kansas State’s depth.

There are, nonetheless, some matchup edges for Kentucky within the recreation which might be exhausting to disregard.

The largest is rebounding.

The best way to beat Kentucky is to restrict its second-chance alternatives and make it shoot from the skin.

As Windfall came upon, Oscar Tshiebwe is an absolute monster.

Tshiebwe completed the first-round recreation with a tournament-record 25 rebounds, and he ought to dominate once more Sunday, particularly on the offensive boards.

Because of Tshiebwe, Kentucky ranks second in offensive rebounding proportion, whereas a lot smaller Kansas State ranks 219th in defensive rebounding proportion.

Kentucky additionally turns rebounds into factors, rating third in second-chance conversion proportion and fifth in near-proximity (layups, dunks, tip-ins) area objective proportion, in line with Haslametrics.

When Kentucky is scoring from shut vary, it’s powerful to beat.

The opposite factor to look at in an in depth recreation is that Kansas State actually struggles with turnovers and fouling, rating north of 290th in each classes.

If Kentucky wins the turnover battle and Tshiebwe is dominating within the paint, search for it to advance to the Candy 16.

Florida Atlantic to win East Area +500 (FanDuel)

One factor some individuals overlook is you’ll be able to nonetheless wager futures through the event.

Typically the best way a bracket shakes out early opens up worth on a sure group. That’s the case with Florida Atlantic.

FAU had a dead-even first-round matchup towards Memphis and, with a win, was more likely to face No. 1 seed Purdue.

Nicely, the Owls gained, solely they gained’t be dealing with the Boilermakers after Purdue was shocked by Fairleigh Dickinson.

That massive upset offers FAU a possible spot within the Candy 16. Something can occur, however the Owls are 12.5-point favorites Sunday.

Let’s say seeding holds and Florida Atlantic advances; then issues will get fascinating.

FAU’s subsequent recreation could be towards Tennessee, with Kentucky, Kansas State, Marquette, or Michigan State subsequent.

Whereas that actually isn’t a simple street, the Owls truly match up nicely with all these groups.

There’s a lot to love about this FAU squad, which ranks within the prime 40 in each offensive and defensive effectivity on KenPom.

The Owls shoot nicely, defend nicely, rebound nicely and don’t flip the ball over.

You’ll be able to argue they don’t play in a Energy 5 convention, however apart from that, this group doesn’t have many weaknesses.

If Memphis had held on and crushed FAU, its odds would have been shorter than +500.

There’s some worth on the Owls making the Closing 4 with Purdue out of the image.