Kentucky Derby 2024: Formulas for weekend’s 4 points preps

The Fountain of Youth, the San Felipe and the John Battaglia
Memorial traditionally are held around this time of the winter. We may not have
known it at the time, but the eventual Kentucky Derby winner three of the last
four years came through one of these points preps.

Authentic won the Grade 2 San Felipe in 2020 at Santa Anita on his way
through the outbreak of a human pandemic and a six-month wait before he took
the Derby at an empty Churchill Downs.

Click here for entries and results at all tracks.

Rich Strike earned one qualifying point in the 2022 John
Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park. If not for that bob of the head against Erase, he would not
have finished fourth, would not have gotten that all-important point, would not
have been an also-eligible entrant in Louisville and would not have drawn in the
day before he was the 80-1 winner of the Derby.

It was not such a razor’s edge for Mage, but he also
finished fourth in his late-winter prep last year at Gulfstream Park. From that result in the
Fountain of Youth (G2) through a runner-up finish in the Florida Derby (G1), he
would pull off the 15-1 upset last year in Louisville.

The Gotham (G3) is the lone outlier this weekend. Secretariat
won at Aqueduct on his way through the 1973 Triple Crown to the Hall of Fame.
He is still the only graduate of the Aqueduct race to win the Derby.

Recent histories for these four races reveal not only how
important they are on the road to the Derby but also the styles that do well in
each race.

Fountain of Youth

Fourteen horses who finished first in the Fountain of Youth went
on to win the roses in Louisville. That is a record for a Derby prep currently
run in the winter.

The table here shows Derby starters who came out of the
Fountain of Youth since 2000. The higher the number in the Quirin Speed Points, the more
likely the horse was to lead in the first turn. E means early speed through the
first half of the race, E/P an early presser indicate of a stalking style, P for
pressers running in mid-pack and S for a sustained run typical of closers.

Mage ended a long drought for the race currently run at 1
1/16 miles around two turns at Gulfstream Park. Orb in 2013 was the only horse
between 1996 and 2022 was the only Derby winner to come out of the prep.

Closers like Grade 1 winner Locked, the 5-2 second choice on
Saturday’s morning line, have done well lately in the Fountain of Youth. It
might be a stretch to call 2023 victor Forte a closer, but he was the third
consecutive winner to rally from at least fifth place. He also was the third
straight favorite to finish first.

These were the Fountain of Youth winners since 2000 with
their running lines gleaned from Equibase charts:

The 2-1 morning-line favorite Saturday, Dornoch has a front-running
style that would be the exception to the recent rule. Since the Derby
established qualifying points in 2013, only two horses led at every call prepping
in the Fountain of Youth. Promises Fulfilled went on to finish 15th in Kentucky
in 2018, and Été Indien did not start in the September 2020 running of the Derby.

San Felipe

Last year marked the first time since 2007 the San Felipe
did not produce a Kentucky Derby starter. Fevers were said to have stymied top-three
finishers Practical Move, Geaux Rocket Ride and Skinner in the weeks following
last year’s race.

Thirteen eventual winners at Churchill Downs used this race
as a prep. All four since 2000 were pacesetters or stalkers.

In the Derby points era, early speed has dominated the 1
1/16-mile San Felipe. Seven of the 10 winners led from gate to wire. Six were post-time
favorites.

Practical Move last year was an exception to the
frontrunning rule, although he never was more than 2 1/2 lengths behind at any
call. Hear the Ghost in 2013 was the last San Felipe winner who made up more
than three lengths.

Nysos, who is 3-for-3 for eight-time San Felipe-winning
trainer Bob Baffert, is certain to be the favorite this weekend. He made his
debut with a gate-to-wire win but then stalked the early lead in winning the
Bob Hope (G3) and the Robert B. Lewis (G3).

John Battaglia Memorial

There is a lot of white space in this chart showing the
horses who came out of this race and ran in America’s biggest race.

The absence of Battaglia Memorial horses advancing to the
Derby can be explained mostly by its not being a qualifying prep until Churchill
Downs Inc. bought Turfway Park and gave it the points cachet in 2021.

Another factor is that the Florence, Ky., racecourse has had
a synthetic surface since 2006, putting more guesswork into how horses coming
out of the race will do on the dirt in Louisville.

Closers have thrived in the Battaglia. The last three
winners and five of the last eight gave up at least seven lengths of ground
before their triumphant rallies.

Epic Ride, Bolt at Midnight and Encino, the top three horses
on the morning line, have shown a forward-going style in their races.
Gettysburg Address and Blue Eyed George, each 6-1, come from off the pace.

Gotham

It has been 24 years since Derby runner-up Aptitude was the most
recent Gotham finisher to hit the board at Churchill Downs.

Putting aside the race’s poor track record for producing
Derby horses, there was a most noteworthy horse who became a champion. Who knew
Knicks Go would go from a sixth-place finish at 20-1 in 2019 to become horse of
the year in 2021?

The Gotham used to be a two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race. It
reverted to a one-turn mile six years ago. The split since has been even between
winners who were forwardly placed and those coming from off the pace.

Bergen and Just a Touch, perhaps the two most highly
regarded of trainer Brad Cox’s four entrants, have different styles. Bergen
came from off the pace to win the Jimmy Winkfield sprint in the mud at Aqueduct.
Just a Touch flashed speed in his debut victory going six furlongs in the slop at
Fair Grounds.