Kentucky basketball vs Iowa State prediction, pick for NCAA game

• Kentucky basketball will face Iowa State in the NCAA Tournament second round after both teams earned victories Friday in St. Louis.
• Iowa State dominated Tennessee State after UK escaped Santa Clara in overtime, but Cyclones star Joshua Jefferson left the game with an injury.
• Who has the edge with a Sweet 16 berth on the line? Here’s our prediction.

ST. LOUIS — Kentucky basketball survived. And advanced.

Thanks to its 89-84 overtime victory over Santa Clara on Friday, UK sealed a spot in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

But the challenge for coach Mark Pope and the Wildcats is about to get considerably tougher.

The next opponent for seventh-seeded Kentucky (22-13) is the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region, Iowa State. The Cyclones had far less drama in their first-round matchup than the Cats. Iowa State trounced Tennesseee State, 108-74, in the game immediately following UK/Santa Clara at the Enterprise Center.

The Cyclones are one of the country’s best teams. They enter Sunday’s matchup 28-7 in 2025-26. ISU went 12-6 in the Big 12 during the regular season. Its conference tournament ended in agonizing fashion, however, falling at the buzzer to Arizona in the semifinals.

The winner of Sunday’s game between UK and ISU will clinch a spot in the Sweet 16. And pack their bags for Chicago, where the Midwest Region’s Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games will be contested next week at the United Center.

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Here’s what to know about Kentucky’s second-round battle against Iowa State:

The Cyclones began the 2025-26 campaign 16-0. Not only was that the program’s best-ever start to a season, but it doubled as the longest win streak in school history. Iowa State also notched 25 wins prior to the postseason for only the third time in the program’s annals.

But if the Cyclones are to set a single-season school standard for wins, they’ll need to win out. The current record holder is the 1999-2000 club, which had 32 wins. To reach 33, Iowa State must win the national championship.

In just five seasons at the helm, T.J. Otzelberger has carved out plenty of space for himself in Iowa State’s record book.

He enters today with an overall record of 123-52. That’s the most wins for any ISU coach in the first five seasons of a tenure. Otzelberger was the quickest in program history to 100 victories, needing only 145 games. He also holds the Cylcones’ mark for wins over Associated Press top-25 foes (30).

His overall winning percentage (.714), conference winning percentage (.587) and home winning percentage (.874) also are No. 1 among Iowa State coaches. And Otzelberger’s six NCAA Tournament wins are two more than any other coaches the Cyclones have had.

He’s fourth on the school’s all-time wins list, trailing Johnny Orr (218), Louis Menze (166) and Glen Anderson (142).

It’s a safe bet that if Otzelberger stays in Ames, Iowa, long enough, he’ll also be atop that list in the future.

Joshua Jefferson is averaging 16.9 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.9 and 1.7 steals per game this season. That’s a stat line no Big 12 player ever has averaged in a single campaign. And, per the Cyclones’ official game notes, only five players in Division I history have done so since steals began being tracked in 1974-75. It’s a list that includes Larry Bird and Penny Hardaway.

But Jefferson’s status for Sunday is unclear.

He injured his left ankle in the first half of Friday’s rout and did not return. Jefferson made it to the team’s bench in the second half using crutches, with a boot on his left foot.

If he’s unable to take the floor Sunday, other Cyclones will have to step up.

Two of his teammates fit the bill.

Forward Milan Momcilovic is arguably the deadliest 3-point shooter in college hoops. He already has Iowa State’s single-season mark in that category, with 130 entering Sunday. Prior to Friday’s games, his 127 were tied for first nationally alongside Samford’s Jadin Booth.

More remarkably, his volume hasn’t adversely affected his accuracy. At 49.6% on the season, he also paces Division I in that category.

In the backcourt, senior guard Tamin Lipsey averages 13.3 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists per outing. He’s among the top 20 in the country in both assist-to-turnover ratio and steals per game.

If that’s not enough, he’s also the Cyclones’ career leader in steals (308) and games started (135).

Buy Kentucky NCAA Tournament tickets vs. Iowa State

Iowa State 71, Kentucky 68: With a healthy Joshua Jefferson, the Cyclones likely would be close to a double-digit favorite. But if he’s hobbled, that hurts Iowa State. And if he’s not able to play at all, that’s even tougher. Yet it’s not as if the Wildcats don’t have injury issues of their own. Starting point guard Jaland Lowe has been out since January. And forward Jayden Quaintance would need a miracle to be cleared Sunday.

Kentucky used up more energy — physically (going to OT) and emotionally (barely keeping its season alive) — than Iowa State.

It’ll be a bare-knuckled fight Sunday.

But Iowa State will eke out a narrow victory to bring down the curtains on Kentucky’s second season under Mark Pope.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.