Mark Pope’s first Kentucky team advanced out of the first round of the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in the last four years on Friday. Tonight, they take on No. 6 seed Illinois in hopes of advancing to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.

It won’t be easy. The Fighting Illini are the betting favorite and will have the crowd advantage in Milwaukee. They also have star power, with freshmen Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley both projected to go in the first round of the NBA Draft. Tomislav Ivisic, Big Z’s twin brother, anchors the inside. Another familiar name, Orlando Antigua, is on the sideline, returning to Brad Underwood’s staff at Illinois when John Calipari left for Arkansas last spring.

With Lamont Butler still not at 100% and Amari Williams dealing with a back injury, Kentucky took care of business vs. Troy thanks in large part to the bench, which contributed 25 points. Can the Cats scrap together and exorcise some more March demons? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

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Tyler Thompson

I’m not feeling great about this game, but I think that’s mostly because of Kentucky’s scoring droughts vs. Troy and the fact that Illinois will likely have a massive crowd advantage (unless a Big Blue caravan is currently en route). Add in Lamont Butler being practically duct-taped together and a pair of projected first-round draft picks on the other side of the ball and it’s very easy to talk yourself into a loss, nerves aside.

But, time and time again this season, this Kentucky team has risen to the occasion when you least expect it. The Cats got the monkey off their back with a win over Troy on Friday. Hopefully, Amari Williams’ back is feeling better and Butler can contribute some offense (he was 0-5 vs. the Trojans). Ansley Almonor has been very quiet recently, scoring just four points over the last four games. He’s due for a March moment.

Illinois’ offense was humming vs. Xavier. The Fighting Illini are 15-3 in games in which they make 10 or more threes. They hit 12 on Friday at a 40% clip. That said, Illinois is last in the Big Ten in three-point percentage (30.1%), so the hope is they cool off. If Kentucky can win the battle beyond the arc and Amari Williams returns to form, I feel good about the Cats making it to Indy. If not, we may need another game-winner from Otega Oweh. Either way, this one’s gonna be close.

Score: Kentucky 86, Illinois 84

Zack Geoghegan

Kentucky can win this game without being 100 percent healthy, but I get the sense a hot shooting night for the ‘Cats will be part of what makes that possible. Since losing to Duke by 43 points a little over a month ago, Illinois has produced a top 10 offense in the country, but a defense that ranks 83rd. UK went 10-26 from deep against Troy. That might not be good enough today against an Illinois team that will do everything it can to get over 30 three-point attempts.

Freshman Will Riley does scare me a bit. The 6-foot-9 wing is a microwave scorer and future pro. Tomislav Ivisic can do everything his brother can, and then some. 6-foot-6 point guard Kasparas Jakucionis is a projected top 10 pick, for crying out loud. The Illini will have more than enough offensive juice to make the Sweet 16.

This game could easily be a race to 90 points. Illinois does not force opponents into turnovers and has been especially shaky on defense the last few weeks. Prior to beating Xavier 86-73, the Illini allowed at least 80 points in three straight games. Lamont Butler has to score more than zero points though. Amari Williams has to finish around the rim. Mark Pope has to get the bench production he did against Troy. I think we’re in for one of the better games we’ll see all postseason long.

Score: Kentucky 89, Illinois 88

Drew Franklin

I’m afraid we’re going to see a rare sight in Fiserv Forum later today: Kentucky fans outnumbered in the stands by the other team. Illinois fans have packed Milwaukee since Thursday’s open practices, and more have turned up throughout the weekend from the neighboring state. Orange will get in, and they’ll be loud.

Still, Kentucky can win the game with bench contributions like it got in the first-round win over Troy. The starting five will need to play well, but Collin Chandler, Brandon Garrison, Ansley Almonor, Trent Noah, and Travis Perry will also have to contribute to take down the Fighting Illini, a team that lost three straight games by an average of 26 points last month.

Illinois can be inconsistent, and Kentucky will need Sunday to be one of those days when the shots aren’t falling. If Illinois shoots like it did in the first round (40% from 3), it will likely be an exit for the Cats. But Illinois shot only 30% in conference play. If that Illinois shows up and the pick-and-pop doesn’t work, Kentucky is on to the next round. I think we’re in for a close game dictated by the team that knocks down 3s, and Koby Brea and the Wildcats are up for the challenge. Make at least five, Koby.

Score: Kentucky 84, Illinois 80

Jacob Polacheck

No Jaxson Robinson? No Kerr Kriisa? No problem. Kentucky’s depth has shown to be a problem for opposing teams down the stretch and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday.

Illinois has a solid team but is inconsistent at times. I’m predicting that the Cats can pull off with Lamont Butler and Amari Williams set to play (albeit not at 100%). Koby Brea will need to show why he was considered the best three-point shooter in the country heading into the season, while Otega Oweh will need to keep doing what he’s been doing.

It could be a rough night for the Illini if Kentucky can get off to a fast start. Don’t let Will Riley get hot, don’t let Illinois knock down a bunch of threes, and then wear them down with depth. If that happen, the Cats should cruise.

Score: Kentucky 81, Illinois 79

Adam Luckett

The Round of 32 has arrived with Kentucky getting Game 3 in 5:30 p.m. ET Sunday window on CBS. You can feel the big-game nerves of the Big Blue Nation across the Commonwealth. The Cats are the only higher-seed to be a dog in this round. There are some reasons to feel good.

Illinois struggles to hit perimeter shots (No. 296 nationally in three-point field goal percentage) and do not force takeaways on defense (No. 360 in turnover rate). Kentucky should have a big advantage in both areas. No. 6 seeds have also struggled to win in this spot when they are a favorite over a No. 3 seed.

But the concerns outweigh the positives for me.

Kentucky is fresh off its worst consecutive scoring performances of the season against Alabama and Troy. This offense could be in trouble if Otega Oweh is not scoring. The Illini project to win the three-point volume battle by a sizable number and that could negate some of Kentucky’s strengths in this matchup. The Illini have also been better in shootouts. Kentucky’s two-point field goal percentage defense (No. 281 nationally) is highly concerning

This is just a tough matchup on-paper. Both teams play pace-and-pace but Illinois extends more possessions with offensive rebounds, has better shot creation than Kentucky, and has two bonafide draft picks at point and on the wing. The lllini have more answers.

The Kentucky offense comes up short in a big spot.

Score: Illinois 83, Kentucky 77

Nick Roush

Ahead of the NCAA Tournament, pundits circled this potential second round matchup as one to watch. Both teams bring a ton of offensive firepower, albeit on an inconsistent basis.

Illinois can bottom out in the blink of an eye. I was optimistic that it would happen against Xavier. It did not. They’ve hit 11+ threes in four of their last five. They’re getting hot after Duke embarrassed them at the end of a three-game losing streak.

Kentucky needs to hold the Fighting Illini to seven threes or fewer. The Cats are trending in the wrong direction offensively. Lamont Butler is limited, eliminating a scorer around the rim, and Amari Williams proved on Friday that his woeful trip to Nashville wasn’t a one-off.

There are zero outcomes in this game that would surprise me and that’s scary. Unfortunately, it feels like Illinois is getting all of the right mojo as Kentucky runs out of steam.

Score: Illinois 88, Kentucky 75

Jack Pilgrim

Kentucky meets its hot and cold match in the Big Ten, Illinois having some ridiculous highs to go with some ridiculous lows. They’ve beaten Arkansas, Wisconsin, Mizzou, Oregon in Eugene, Indiana in Bloomington, UCLA, Michigan in Ann Arbor and Purdue. They’ve also lost by double digits at home to USC and by nine at Rutgers while also getting run off the floor by Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament. When they’re hitting threes, the Fighting Illini are a force to be reckoned with. If not, they’re fairly pedestrian. Sound familiar?

As Roush pointed out, they’ve hit 11+ threes in four of five, but we’ve also seen them go 6-27 against Maryland and 2-26 against Duke in recent weeks. Again, they rank No. 315 nationally in 3PT% for a reason. They’re also one of the worst teams in college basketball at forcing turnovers (5.9% steal rate, 12.5% turnover rate), so Kentucky should be able to get into its offense and create good looks to win the 3-point make battle, even if Illinois wins the volume battle.

It’s a back and forth day that keeps BBN on edge until late, but Ansley Almonor steps up and hits a few big shots to send the Wildcats to their first Sweet 16 since 2019.

Score: Kentucky 84, Illinois 78

[3] Kentucky vs. [6] Illinois: How to Watch, Listen

• Date, Time: Sunday, 5:15 p.m. ET
• Television: CBS (Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, Lauren Shehadi)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: The Varsity App
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 210 or 203
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.

Tennessee basketball proved it could win at Rupp Arena in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. Next, it might have to prove it can beat Rupp Arena’s home team.

That might present a greater challenge than what the Vols encountered in an impressive 67-58 second-round victory over UCLA on Saturday in Lexington, Kentucky.

Or maybe, the Vols will avoid tangling with their longtime SEC rival. Third-seeded Kentucky, which beat UT twice during the regular season, will have to get past Illinois in a second-round game Sunday to create a Tennessee-Kentucky matchup in the Sweet 16.

Not only did No. 2 seed Tennessee (29-7) advance to the tournament’s second weekend with the victory over No. 7 seed UCLA (23-11). It moved within one game of a second 30-win season under coach Rick Barnes.

The game between a pair of defensive-minded teams unfolded as expected in the early going. The Vols finally managed separation when they ran off eight consecutive points to close out the first half with a 32-25 lead. A Chaz Lanier steal, which he converted into a three-point play, highlighted UT’s surge.

As good as UCLA’s defense has been at times this season, it struggled terribly keeping up with Lanier. He reached the 20-point mark early in the second half. By then, he also had broken Chris Lofton’s school record for 3-pointers.

Lanier, who scored 29 points in the first-round victory over Wofford, has been at his best in the tournament, an encouraging sign for the Vols, whose March Madness failures under Barnes usually have been related to offensive shortcomings.

They had more offense than coach Mick Cronin’s Bruins could handle – and more defense, too.

Tennessee joined two other top-four Midwest Regional seeds in reaching the Sweet 16. No. 1 seed Houston started fast against Gonzaga and held on for an 81-76 victory. Fourth-seeded Purdue cruised past McNeese 76-62 into the Sweet 16. No 3 Kentucky can make it four-for-four by turning back No. 6 Illinois on Sunday.

The Vols are assured of a familiar opponent in the Sweet 16 regardless of whether Illinois or Kentucky advance.

UT edged Illinois 66-64 in Champaign in mid-December, thanks mainly to the scoring of guard Jordan Gainey, who had a game-high 23 points, including the game-winning basket in the final seconds.

Kentucky is a different matter. The Wildcats defeated the Vols twice during the regular season, which could evoke different feelings about a third meeting among the Vols fanbase.

Tennessee optimists might cling to the basketball adage: “It’s hard to beat a team three times in a season.” But if you watched both Kentucky-Tennessee regular-season games, you can’t easily dismiss the Wildcats as a possibly serious obstacle to the Vols reaching the Elite Eight.

Kentucky didn’t just win twice. It won as so few teams have against the Vols, exploiting their usually dogged defense with surprisingly efficient shooting.

In the first Tennessee game, Kentucky made 50% of its shots in a 78-73 victory at Food City Center. The Wildcats were just as accurate in winning the rematch at Rupp Arena 75-64. In each game, they made 12 of 24 3-pointers.

Those outcomes are two reasons why UT fans might ignore the “hard to beat a team three times” saying and pull for Illinois, which is a 1.5-point favorite over Kentucky despite being a lower seed.

ADAMS: Tennessee basketball did enough to convince me it’s headed for a Houston showdown

Tennessee fans shouldn’t complain if Illinois is victorious. But looking further ahead, they probably feel better about their chances against Houston if the region’s top two seeds wind up meeting in the Sweet 16. Houston looked vulnerable in the second half against Gonzaga, which cut the Cougars’ double-figure lead to a point with 21 seconds remaining.

Unlike Houston, the Vols raised their level of play as the game progressed against UCLA. That performance should bolster their confidence for the Sweet 16 when they try to become the first team in school history to make the Final Four.

 John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or john.adams@knoxnews.com. Follow him at: twitter.com/johnadamskns

No. 3 seed Kentucky will be a betting underdog on Sunday in Milwaukee against No. 6 seed Illinois in what should be one of the most entertaining matchups of the second round of the NCAA Tournament. 

The Fighting Illini, who were pegged as a dark horse in the Midwest Region, are favored in the second round against the Wildcats, as both teams looked the part in the first round with double digit victories. 

Can Illinois make good on being a favorite? What about a sky high total in the 170’s? Let’s break down this game from a betting perspective below. 

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 170.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Illinois

Kasparas Jakucionis: The freshman guard had it all working in the first round against Xavier, scoring 16 points with nine rebounds and 10 assists. While he was still plagued by turnovers, he had six in the win, the conservative Kentucky defense will not pose as much of a threat in that department. He can be in for another big effort on Sunday. 

Kentucky

Otega Oweh: The Oklahoma transfer continued his torrid second half of the season, scoring 20 points with eight rebounds and six assists as Kentucky pulled away from Troy in the second half to advance. Oweh is a force at getting to the rim with an emerging perimeter game, how will he continue his NCAA Tournament performance? 

With two fast pace offenses that have bucket getters all along the roster, I’m going to side with the over in this one. 

While the Illinois defense is formidable, the Kentucky offense will be comfortable against the opponents drop coverage. The Wildcats are flush with players that can score from off the dribble, one of the best offenses in the country in dribble jump shots while also able to use its off-ball motion to put pressure on Illinois’ over-playing defense that wants to run teams off the three-point line. 

Meanwhile, Illinois’ up-tempo attack should give Kentucky fits in transition, similar to how Alabama did in SEC play. The Fighting Illini have some similarities to the Crimson Tide, who scored 102, 96 and 99 points in two games against the Wildcats. 

On the year, Kentucky has allowed KenPom top 20 offenses in adjusted offensive efficiency to score to allow nearly 94 points per game in seven instances, and I believe with Illinois’ up-tempo attack, ranking top 20 in the country in adjusted tempo, this game will fly over the total. 

PICK: OVER 170.5 (-115, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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