Better or worse? Previewing Kentucky’s offense in 2022

It’s time for Kentucky soccer. Mark Stoops’ ‘Cats gained 10 video games final yr, making a pair of 10-win seasons in 4 years. The final time Kentucky did that? By no means.  Stoops has constructed a fearsome program on the backs of under-the-radar recruiting, particular person participant developments and employees continuity. However now he has an ingredient he’s by no means had at Kentucky — a starring returning QB.

Penn State switch Will Levis claimed Kentucky’s QB job in fall camp final yr and was glorious, if typically uneven, in Kentucky’s 10-win season. Levis handed for two,812 yards and 24 touchdowns and added 376 yards and 9 extra touchdowns on the bottom. His choice to return to Lexington signifies that Kentucky expects large issues from its offense in 2022 — possibly not Hal Mumme-Mike Leach Air Raid large issues (1997 and 1998) or Wealthy Brooks-Andre Woodson kind issues (2006 and 2007), however extra of the sort of issues that preserve 10-win seasons taking place.

Kentucky averaged 32.3 factors per recreation final season — the primary time they averaged greater than 30 for the reason that 2010 offense averaged 31.2.

Kentucky did lose star wideout Wan’Dale Robinson, who rewrote the UK file guide in his solely season as a Wildcat (104 catches, 1,348 yards). The Wildcats additionally must break in a pair of latest tackles, which may very well be extra adventurous than they’d like. One other X-factor is rumblings in regards to the standing of working again Chris Rodriguez after an offseason DUI arrest and rumors of different troubles.

However Kentucky returns an All-SEC degree quarterback, a veteran and gifted working again group (significantly if Rodriguez is a part of it), and a stable corps of promising receivers, led by one other veteran switch to assist fill Robinson’s reasonably giant footwear. There’s optimism for Kentucky soccer, and that’s been pretty uncommon traditionally.

How will it shake out on offense? Let’s have a look.

Passing recreation: Higher

After years of ground-and-pound offense, Kentucky applied an precise passing assault beneath now-L.A. Rams offensive coordinator Liam Coen. The excellent news is that even with Coen’s exit, this pattern figures to proceed.

Sure, Wan’Dale Robinson will probably be tearing up NFL defenses reasonably than SEC defenses. Sure, Kentucky has to ascertain a few new tackles who can preserve Levis upright and in a single piece. However Levis drastically improved down the stretch of Kentucky’s season, getting extra snug as he gained beginning expertise. After throwing for 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in UK’s first 7 video games, within the final 5, Levis handed for 10 touchdowns in opposition to simply 4 interceptions, and he additionally rushed for six of his 9 scores. His arm expertise, management and creating decision-making mark Levis as a future star — probably even a 1st-round draft choose subsequent April. If he’s wholesome, he’ll simply grow to be UK’s first 3,000-yard passer since 2010.

Wan’Dale Robinson will probably be missed, however the brand new high canine, Tayvion Robinson, has all the talents to shine. Robinson was Virginia Tech’s high receiver however elected to switch to the Wildcats. Anticipating 100 catches and 1,300 yards could be a bit a lot, however he may nicely put up, say, 75% of Wan’Dale’s productiveness.

In the meantime, he’ll be helped by a solid of creating younger gamers. True freshman Dane Key shone in Kentucky’s spring recreation and has earned reward from new offensive coordinator Wealthy Scangarello. Barrion Brown, a 4-star recruit,  is just too good to take a seat. Returnee DeMarcus Harris has proven good palms.

Tight finish Keaton Upshaw additionally returns, and given his red-zone success early in his profession, he may very well be a giant a part of this offense after lacking the 2021 season with an harm. Izayah Cummings was a large receiver who shifted to tight finish midseason and confirmed important expertise in house. Brendan Bates is a bodily catch or block kind, and Jordan Dingle might need one of the best long-term way forward for any of this gifted group.

Search for Kentucky to make use of loads of 2 tight finish packages and to feed Robinson inside and the younger playmakers on the sting. So long as Levis is wholesome, this group can high the 2021 numbers (224 yards per recreation).

Working recreation: Barely worse

Alternatively, Kentucky’s floor assault has virtually nowhere to go however down. On current UK groups the place the passing recreation was both non-existent or lower than harmful, the bottom recreation needed to save the day. Largely, it did.

However the dying of offensive line coach John Schlarman led to his one-year alternative by Eric Wolford, who was a polarizing presence in Lexington. Wolford left for Alabama and has been changed by San Fransisco 49ers coach George Yenser, which makes him the Third offensive line coach in 3 seasons. That group, as famous above, will probably be trying to plug in a few new tackles, which is all the time a problem.

The wild card right here is Rodriguez, who enters the season with a superb mathematical shot to eclipse Benny Snell as this system’s all-time main rusher. However that assumes that he’s on the sector. Rodriguez was arrested for DUI final month, and since that point, the rumor mill has been cranking, indicating that he has different points hanging over his head. Famous Kentucky insider Matt Jones has reported that Rodriguez’s standing for 2022 is unsure. Whereas some across the program have back-pedaled, there’s nonetheless one thing happening to be sorted out earlier than the 2022 season.

Rodriguez rushed for 1,379 yards and 9 touchdowns final yr. If he’s out for some or the entire season, the opposite backs will grow to be pivotal. Kavosiey Smoke has seen his position lower, however the veteran does have a historical past of explosive runs and has posted over 1,300 speeding yards in his UK profession. JuTahn McClain, who missed time early within the season after an off-field incident, was more and more featured as a Third-down again. He rushed for 165 yards on 34 carries, and the employees nonetheless appears to love his versatility. Freshman La’Vell Wright appears to have the wiggle on the sting that the UK employees prize, and he’ll possible see a while in 2022.

General, Kentucky rushed for 199.5 yards per recreation final yr and had 5.23 yards per carry. These numbers have been down barely from earlier seasons, as UK led the SEC in speeding in 2019 and was simply 14 yards off the lead within the 2020 all-SEC season. Kentucky’s 38.2 speeding makes an attempt per recreation have been 4th-highest within the SEC, and with the expertise of Levis, that quantity may drop to round 35 carries. If Rodriguez is out or the deal with scenario is an issue, these numbers may fall even farther. However pencil in UK for 35 carries, 175 yards per recreation, and a higher reliance on the passing recreation.

Particular groups: Higher

Matt Ruffolo is again for an additional season, and he’s a really sufficient choice at kicker (10-for-13 in 2021 on area targets), albeit with out the sort of rocket leg that some now anticipate. Probability Poore would possibly take a crack at lengthy area targets, if wanted. Aside from a painful 2019 loss to Florida, Kentucky hasn’t been impacted by missed kicks in shut video games, which might be the purpose as a lot as another.

Stoops has tended to make use of walk-ons within the return recreation, not eager to danger accidents to star gamers on particular groups. However given the variety of speedy choices, it could be a shock to see him not lower one in every of UK’s blazers free in 2022.

The outcomes will possible be higher than final season’s 16.7 yards per kickoff return. Josh Ali did return a punt for a landing in 2021, nevertheless it wouldn’t be stunning for UK’s speedier receivers to equal or finest that mark as nicely.

General: Higher (with C-Rod?)

Within the grand scheme of issues, there are many causes to anticipate UK’s passing recreation to proceed making important enchancment. Levis offers Kentucky its strongest returning QB in at the least a decade, and whereas the No. 1 receiver gained’t equal Wan’Dale, Kentucky ought to have a greater group of succesful receivers than at any time since at the least 2010. Final season additionally noticed Kentucky lastly reaping some advantages of offensive steadiness. After a number of years of getting a restricted passing recreation or no actual passing recreation, the specter of the go helped Kentucky out virtually as a lot because the precise passing recreation.

However … Chris Rodriguez issues.

Sure, Kentucky has depth behind him. However enchancment is essentially based mostly round having one of many SEC’s high returning working backs. The continued smoke round Rodriguez’s scenario for 2022 is deeply regarding. Within the combination, Kentucky’s different backs can most likely match Rodriguez in speeding yardage. However Kentucky’s finest groups beneath Stoops have had the posh of that robust bodily again who can flip Third-and-2s into 1st-and-10s. No person else in Kentucky’s working again room has proven that skill.

If Third-and-2 begins turning into 4th-and-3, Levis has to hold an awfully large portion of the offensive load. If Rodriguez is obtainable for many or the entire season, Kentucky will probably be higher offensively. If he’s not, then the season will largely hinge on how nicely Kentucky can substitute him. And in that scenario, the preliminary forecast would go from higher to barely worse.