Kentucky
2024 Kentucky Derby horses, futures, odds, date: Expert who hit 10 Derby-Oaks Doubles gives out picks
There are 36 prep races for qualifying for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, and even the most ardent of horseracing fans could get overwhelmed with so much to keep track of. However, one race has historically stood above all others in producing winners at Churchill Downs, the Florida Derby. Fifteen horses have pulled off the Florida-Kentucky double, while no other prep race has seen more than 11 horses win both. So, should this year’s Florida Derby winner in Fierceness make his way into your Kentucky Derby 2024 bets?
The Todd Pletcher-trained horse is the 3-1 favorite, according to the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, just edging out Sierra Leone (7-2). Pletcher was the last trainer to pull off the Florida-Kentucky Derby back in 2017 with Always Dreaming, but Fierceness has stiff competition at Churchill Downs. The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4, at Churchill Downs. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline’s win at the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He’s also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he’s the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. With a 110 Beyer Speed Figure en route to the win at Gulfstream Park that towers over this year’s crop of three-year-olds, it’s easy to see the potential in this Todd Pletcher-trained son of City of Light by Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella.
However, consistency has been an issue for this undoubtedly talented colt. After breaking his maiden in his first start at Saratoga, Fierceness finished a disappointing seventh in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. He followed with an unbelievable showing on his way to a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but then opened his three-year-old season with another dud, finishing third in the Holy Bull Stakes. So which Fierceness will we get at Churchill Downs? See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he’s a 35-1 longshot. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. A bit of a late-bloomer who didn’t win any of his first three starts, Resilience finally broke through on New Year’s Day at Gulfstream Park. After a disappointing fourth place in his fifth career start at the Risen Star Stakes, he then solidified himself as a Kentucky Derby contender with an early April win at the Grade II Wood Memorial Stakes. That race has been very favorable to success at the Kentucky Derby as 11 horses have won both, making the Wood Memorial the second-best prep race at producing Derby winners.
Also in Resilience’s favor are his connections and his pedigree. He is trained by William Mott, who is the reigning award winner for Outstanding Trainer, and who won the 2019 Derby with Country House. Additionally, Resilience was sired by Into Mischief, who was a Grade I winner back in his day and also sired the Kentucky Derby winners in 2020 (Authentic) and 2021 (Mandaloun). So, three of the last four Derby winners have a connection to Resilience, and given his impressive final tune-up at the Wood Memorial, he’s a name to consider with 2024 Kentucky Derby bets. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who “keeps getting better and better.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.