2023 Kentucky Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down for Feb. 15

This characteristic supplies a capsule take a look at three horses who’re heating up on the Triple Crown path and three horses whose probabilities for the 2023 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve should not fairly as robust as they had been a number of weeks in the past.

Within the third version of this weblog for the 2023 run for the roses, the main target was the earlier two weeks of racing that featured 5 Kentucky Derby qualifying races.

Search for this column to seem each different week shifting ahead to research to largest movers approaching the primary leg of the Triple Crown. For now, let’s check out what has modified during the last couple of weeks on the 2023 Triple Crown path.

Highway to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

THREE HEATING UP

1. Tapit Trice

Common readers of this weblog know I hardly ever give a top-three spot to a maiden or allowance winner, however I made an exception this week because of a dominant eight-length romp by this promising son of main sire Tapit in a one-mile allowance-optional race Feb. 4 at Gulfstream Park. Actually, his runaway win for Corridor of Fame coach Todd Pletcher mixed with a number of underwhelming Derby prep races earned Tapit Trice the highest spot. In his earlier race, Tapit Trice edged Slip Mahoney by a neck in a December 2022 maiden particular weight race on a muddy monitor at Aqueduct. That win was flattered when Slip Mahoney got here again to win his 3-year-old debut in January. Tapit Trice was the second betting alternative in his Feb. 4 allowance win however he made it look straightforward with a closing quarter-mile in :24.53 and a robust closing eighth of a mile in :12.30. He equaled a career-top 96 Equibase Pace Determine for the win however his Beyer Pace Determine (92) was much more eye-catching and ranks within the prime ten at one mile or longer for a 3-year-old in 2023. Pletcher used the Gulfstream allowance path to Kentucky Derby success with At all times Dreaming in 2017, and Tapit Trice has a really robust pedigree for 1 ¼ miles. By main sire Tapit, Tapit Trice was produced by the Dunkirk mare Danzatrice, a three-time stakes winner in races longer than a mile. He seems to be like a really good Derby prospect throughout a Triple Crown season the place only a few 3-year-olds have actually dazzled.

2. Rocket Can

After I coated high-school sports activities years in the past, an athletic director used to make use of the phrase “six in a single, half a dozen within the different” so typically it grew to become a operating bit within the sports activities division, nevertheless it appears fairly becoming when separating current stakes winners Rocket Can and Hit Present for the quantity two slot right here. It’s actually all about desire however I gave a slight nod to Rocket Can on the premise of 1 most important issue that I contemplate essential when evaluating Derby candidates: how they end races. Rocket Can completed considerably higher in profitable the $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park by three-quarters of a size on Feb. 4 than Hit Present did in his stakes win. The Holy Bull profitable time of 1:44.97 for 1 1/16 miles was fairly gradual however that was largely attributable to a gradual tempo, and Rocket Can did end quick with a closing sixteenth of a mile in 6.43 seconds and a closing five-sixteenths in just a bit over 31 seconds. Whereas the velocity figures for the Holy Bull got here again fairly mild (89 Equibase Pace Determine, 82 Beyer Pace Determine), I believe he can enhance off a pleasant win in his stakes debut for Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Mott. Plus, he has a terrific pedigree to excel because the races get longer. He’s by main sire Into Mischief out of the Tapit mare Stress and his grandam (maternal grandmother) is a number of Grade 1 winner Robust Tiz’s Sis, by two-time Breeders’ Cup Basic winner Tiznow.

3. Hit Present

It appears Hit Present’s 5 ½-length Withers Stakes win Feb. 11 at Aqueduct graded out effectively by the velocity determine makers as he earned a career-best 93 Equibase Pace Determine and career-top 91 Beyer Pace Determine. The Sweet Experience colt has improved his Equibase and Beyer figures with every begin in his four-race profession for 2020 and 2021 Eclipse Award-winning coach Brad Cox. Like Tapit Trice and Rocket Can, Hit Present seems to be like he’s bred to thrive as races get longer on the Derby path – he’s by Sweet Experience, a record-setter at 1 ¼ miles, out of 2017 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes winner Actress, by Tapit. With three wins in 4 begins and an apparent excuse (a poor begin) for his lone defeat, Hit Present has a ton of potential for owners-breeders Gary and Mary West. My solely quibble along with his Withers win, nonetheless, isn’t an insignificant one as he actually didn’t end effectively within the 1 1/8-mile race. He accomplished his closing three-eighths of a mile in roughly :41.08, in response to the Equibase chart, with a closing furlong in :14.06. It’s one thing to keep watch over in his closing prep race for the Kentucky Derby, which most definitely would be the $750,000, Grade 2 Wooden Memorial Stakes Introduced by NYRA Bets on April 8 at Aqueduct.

Additionally-Eligible: It’s all the time a problem evaluating Kentucky Derby prep races on artificial surfaces, however Chase the Chaos confirmed me one thing in closing from 10 lengths off the tempo for a 1 ½-length rating within the $101,350 El Camino Actual Derby Feb. 11 at Golden Gate Fields. The bay Astern gelding earned a career-best 98 Equibase Pace Determine and 83 Beyer Pace Determine, so he’s trending in the appropriate route for coach Ed Moger Jr., who indicated he could possibly be a nominated to the Triple Crown throughout the subsequent stage for $6,000. … Litigate received the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes by 1 ¼ lengths Feb. 11 at Tampa Bay Downs, however he missed the reduce for the highest three as a result of the ultimate five-sixteenths of a mile in roughly :33.36 left one thing to be desired. The Blame colt is now 2-for-3 for Corridor of Fame coach Pletcher and is one other with a pedigree that would appear to point he might thrive with extra distance. … Onerous to Determine took the lead within the stretch of the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes Feb. 4 at Santa Anita Park however got here up a neck in need of stablemate Newgate (now sidelined, see under) in a runner-up end that earned a 102 Equibase Pace Determine and a 100 Beyer Pace Determine. I believe this Onerous Spun colt has some potential however so far he’s missing consistency, and whereas he’s within the barn of Bob Baffert he stays ineligible to earn Derby qualifying factors because of Churchill Downs’ ban on Baffert-trained horses, which was ordered after Medina Spirit’s treatment violation and disqualification from a Derby win in 2021.

THREE COOLING DOWN

1. Newgate

This gifted Into Mischief colt was a most important contender for the highest spot on the heating up record on the heels of a sport victory within the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes Feb. 4 at Santa Anita Park, sadly Every day Racing Type reported he has been sidelined with a “minor hock problem.” It’s a disappointing flip for a colt who appeared to be simply coming into his personal as a racehorse, however on the brilliant facet he ought to have the ability to return and figures to be a key participant within the 3-year-old division down the street. Racing supervisor Tom Ryan stated: “His prognosis to return is superb. We sit up for seeing him again this summer time.”

2. Cyclone Mischief

Like many others, I had fairly lofty expectations for Cyclone Mischief coming into the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes Feb. 4 at Gulfstream Park, however the Into Mischief colt was overwhelmed by 11 ¾ lengths whereas ending seventh because the 6-5 favourite. I didn’t see any actual excuse for the subpar effort, which got here after a 5 ¾-length romp in a one-mile allowance-optional claiming race in January in his 3-year-old debut. He’s run very effectively in three of his 5 begins to this point, with each disappointments coming in opposition to higher competitors in graded stakes races. At this level in his profession, he simply may not be prepared for that high quality of opposition.

3. Dubyuhnell

I believed there was an opportunity Dubyuhnell may regress coming again off a 10-week layoff following a career-best effort in his Remsen Stakes victory within the closing begin of his 2-year-old marketing campaign. However the outcome from the Sam F. Davis Stakes Fab. 11 at Tampa Bay Downs – eighth, overwhelmed by 19 lengths – seems to be a lot worse than it really was. The Good Magic colt’s race was just about over at the beginning when he was bounced round in visitors coming into the primary flip, which pressured him into an unfamiliar place effectively off the tempo, and he simply by no means fired. Coach Danny Gargan stated after the Sam F. Davis, “The race is a throwout.” I are inclined to agree, however missteps of the Kentucky Derby path, even when out of your management, can show very expensive and a wasted first begin of a 3-year-old marketing campaign undoubtedly put Dubyuhnell behind the proverbial 8-ball.

Of notice: He made an look within the cooling down part of an earlier version of this weblog so together with Arabian Lion once more right here felt like piling on, nevertheless it’s value noting that he’s now been fairly soundly defeated in his two stakes begins within the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity and Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes.