2023 Kentucky Derby Hopeful Snapshots: Hit Show

Welcome to 2023 Kentucky Derby Prospect Snapshots, the place we’ll have a look every week at a latest winner on the Triple Crown path, often from the Street to the Kentucky Derby schedule from which the racehorses earn factors towards qualifying.

The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve might be held Could 6, 2023, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we’ll take a better take a look at Hit Present, winner of the $250,000 Withers Stakes on Feb. 11 at Aqueduct.

Hit Present earned 20 factors towards qualifying for the 2023 Kentucky Derby with the Withers win and moved into fourth place on the most recent Street to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 20 complete factors.

Racing Résumé: Hit Present made a memorable impression in his stakes (and 3-year-old) debut in profitable the Grade 3 Withers Stakes by 5 ½ lengths whereas stretching out to 1 1/8 miles for the primary time. The Withers is simply an eighth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby, which made for an encouraging career-best effort by Hit Present as he improved to 3 wins from 4 begins.

The pace figures (see beneath) supported the attention check that this was a really good stakes debut from Hit Present; nevertheless, if there was one space price nitpicking it was the ending fractions. Granted, Aqueduct performed fairly gradual on Withers day, however nonetheless you would like to see a ultimate three-eighths of a mile quicker that the roughly 41.08 seconds wherein Hit Present completed and a faster ultimate furlong than 14.06 seconds. On the intense facet, Hit Present didn’t have to exert himself a lot late, the early tempo was pretty robust, and he galloped out powerfully, however these closing fractions are exceptionally gradual. It’s one thing to trace and take into account when evaluating his probabilities on the 2023 Derby path.

Trying again on his 2-year-old marketing campaign, Hit Present gained two of three begins along with his solely defeat a troubled fourth behind subsequent Lecomte Stakes third-place finisher Confidence Recreation and up to date Holy Bull Stakes winner Rocket Can in a Nov. 26, 2022, allowance race at Churchill that appears increasingly more like a key race.

Velocity Figures: Equibase Velocity Figures present a gradual upward trajectory for Hit Present: 81-86-90 for his three begins as a 2-year-old, capped by a 3 ½-length win Dec. 17, 2022, at Oaklawn Park at a mile. He earned a brand new career-best 93 Equibase Velocity Determine, a three-point enchancment, for the Withers rating. These figures are a bit gradual in contrast with a few of his friends on the Derby path, however a 91 Beyer Velocity Determine is way nearer to different prime 3-year-olds and locations him inside putting vary of the competitors with enchancment.

Operating Model: Hit Present has rallied from off the tempo in every of his 4 races. In his three wins, he was inside 3 ½ lengths after the primary quarter-mile and inside 2 ½ lengths after operating a half-mile. He bumped into bother when he bobbled initially of his lone profession defeat and had an excessive amount of floor to make up late within the race as he was 8 ½ lengths again after a half-mile.

Horses preferring to race off the tempo – each stalkers and closers – should cope with variables outdoors of their management on the Derby path and when going through 19 opponents within the run for the roses. A poor begin like he had in his lone defeat might price Hit Present the race within the Kentucky Derby. The straightforward purpose 3-year-olds with early pace have been so profitable within the Derby in recent times is that trait usually permits a gifted horse and rider to regulate their very own destiny with out counting on racing luck, whereas Hit Present would wish some success to win from off the tempo.

Connections: Brad Cox trains Hit Present for distinguished owners-breeders Gary and Mary West, who’ve raced champions equivalent to Recreation Winner, Most Safety, and West Coast amongst an extended listing of Grade 1 winners and completed graded stakes winners. The Wests made their fortune within the telecommunications business and now function West Well being in addition to the Gary and Mary West Basis. They have been concerned within the Thoroughbred business for greater than 30 years.

Cox, the 2020 and 2021 Eclipse Award winner as excellent coach, led all trainers with 38 horses nominated to the 2023 Triple Crown and has a terrific hand for the Derby that features Hit Present, Lecomte Stakes winner Instantaneous Espresso, Smarty Jones Stakes winner Victory Formation, Gun Runner Stakes winner Jace’s Street, Remington Springboard Mile runner-up Large Mischief, and the promising Verifying. Cox gained the 2021 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve with Mandaloun following the disqualification of Medina Spirit and the 2021 Belmont Stakes Offered by NYRA Bets with Important High quality. Cox educated 2021 Horse of the Yr Knicks Go.

Manny Franco is the third rider up to now for Hit Present, following Florent Geroux, who was aboard for his first two begins, and Joe Talamo, who rode him to victory in December at Oaklawn. Franco gained the 2020 Belmont Stakes Offered by NYRA Bets with Tiz the Regulation, who additionally ran second beneath Franco in that yr’s Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve, which was the version that was postponed till September due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pedigree Notes: One field that Hit Present seems to verify as a derby prospect is stamina. His dam (mom), Actress, by main sire Tapit, gained the 2017 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes on Preakness weekend. Like Hit Present, Actress was a homebred of the Wests.

Hit Present’s grandam (maternal grandmother), Milwaukee Attraction, gained the 2009 Woodbine Oaks Offered by Budweiser and completed third in opposition to males within the 1 ¼-mile Queen’s Plate en path to Canadian champion 3-year-old filly honors.

Hit Present’s sire, Sweet Journey, was an unbeaten observe record-setter at 1 ¼ miles who has developed into an excellent sire. Sweet Journey’s prime runners embody 2017 Horse of the Yr Gun Runner, winner of that yr’s Breeders’ Cup Traditional; champion Shared Perception, winner of the 1 ¼-mile Santa Anita Handicap in 2015; and 2018 champion 2-year-old male Recreation Winner. Sweet Journey has sired 56 graded stakes winners up to now and lots of of them boast a mixture of pace and stamina.

Derby Potential: The 2023 Triple Crown path seems to be fairly vast open at this level with solely a few eye-catching performances up to now this yr and with final yr’s prime 2-year-olds, Forte and Cave Rock, but to race this season. Due to that, there’s a deep listing of 3-year-olds that want to indicate vital enchancment to compete in a Triple Crown race that additionally nonetheless appear to be viable Derby candidates. Hit Present slots in there as a gifted, well-bred 3-year-old for a prime coach who has an opportunity to emerge as a key participant within the division with a breakout efficiency in his subsequent begin, which Cox expects to be the Grade 2, $750,000 Wooden Memorial Stakes Offered by NYRA Bets on April 8 at Aqueduct.

“It’s fairly powerful to get one on the Derby Path; we’ve discovered that out,” Ben Glass, racing supervisor for the Wests, informed BloodHorse. “And even while you generally get one there, it doesn’t at all times work out. It’s thrilling to have an excellent horse. Nobody is aware of how good he’s but, we’re not going to get too loopy from a Grade 3, but it surely’s thrilling.”