ATLANTA – While the workweek remains quiet, far eastern North Georgia and the Carolinas are bracing for a potential winter weather blast this weekend. 

Chance for snow in Georgia

What they’re saying:

FOX 5 Meteorologist Jonathan Stacey says that while uncertainty remains, the ingredients for a Saturday snow event are beginning to align.

The primary window for impact is early Saturday morning through early Sunday. High-pressure conditions are expected to keep things clear through Friday, but a shifting weather pattern could open the skies just as temperatures plummet well below freezing.

By Sunday, models suggest the system will push offshore into the Atlantic, likely clearing the way for a sunny but cold end to the weekend.

Forecast could change

What they’re saying:

Current forecasting models are in “good agreement” regarding the timing of the front, though they differ slightly on how much moisture will reach the Atlanta metro area.

The European Model: Suggests the bulk of the snow will fall on the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains in the Carolinas. The big question for North Georgia is whether that moisture will cross the state line to impact eastern communities.

The American (GFS) Model: Offers a more conservative outlook, keeping the “lion’s share” of accumulation in the Carolinas and leaving Georgia with only meager flurries in the easternmost counties and higher elevations.

Georgia snow accumulation

What they’re saying:

With temperatures expected to stay below freezing all day Saturday and Sunday, meteorologists have to account for snow ratios. Typically, warmer snow (near 32°F) is heavy and wet. However, in deep cold, snow becomes “fluffier” and stacks higher.

For example, the same amount of liquid that produces one inch of slushy snow at freezing might produce two inches of dry, powdery snow at 28°F.

While an expansion into metro Atlanta is possible, it is not yet considered likely. Current probabilities favor Northeast Georgia and the Lake Country:

• Athens 40%
• Blairsville 40%
• Gainesville 30%
• Eatonton 30%
• Atlanta 20%
• Canton 20%
• Dalton 20%
• Ellijay 20%
• Rome 10%
• Carrollton 10%
• LaGrange 10%
• Griffin 10%

Sun after weekend

What’s next:

Looking toward next week, there is a silver lining. By Groundhog Day, the sunshine is expected to return. Regardless of whether the groundhog sees his shadow, a gradual warmup is likely to follow the weekend deep freeze.