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Recruiting thoughts: Key class for Florida State, Alabama post-Saban, Georgia's push into Ohio

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Recruiting thoughts: Key class for Florida State, Alabama post-Saban, Georgia's push into Ohio


We blinked our eyes and the end of May is already here. That means recruiting season is heating up with summer visits right around the corner.

Here are some recruiting thoughts:

• We got into a discussion about transactional programs on last Friday’s episode of “Until Saturday.” It led us down a path to Florida State, a team that has been very active — and successful — in the transfer portal. Mike Norvell has not signed a top-10 recruiting class during his time in Tallahassee, yet he had his team competing for a national championship a year ago. And had Jordan Travis not gotten injured, the Seminoles could have won the title. This has me thinking: Are the high school recruiting rankings just not as important anymore? Or was Florida State just outrageously (and unsustainably) successful in the portal? Was last year an outlier or the beginning of a new talent accumulation trend?

• Who were the best players on Florida State’s roster last year? Travis, receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson, running back Trey Benson, defensive end Jared Verse and a handful of others. Every one of them was a transfer. That, to me, makes Norvell the portal king. It’s not so much about the number of transfers, it’s about how many came in and produced like future NFL players. It was wildly successful, but I’m skeptical a team can consistently do that year after year, even if Florida State regularly takes transfers with multiple seasons of eligibility remaining.

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• That brings me to the next point about Florida State and other “transactional” programs. At what point do you pull the lever and start going all-in on high school classes? Florida State’s recruiting ranking has improved each year under Norvell’s leadership, from No. 23 in the 2021 cycle in the 247Sports Composite to No. 12 in 2024. As success happens on the field, high school prospects begin to look at your program in a different light. Though it is always prudent to use the portal as a supplement, I still firmly believe that focusing on high school recruiting is required to sustain success.

• Florida State is no stranger to elite-level recruiting, but I was shocked to learn that the Seminoles haven’t signed a top-10 class since the 2017 cycle. People view Norvell as a top-five coach in America right now. This cycle is huge for Florida State to prove that this program actually is back as a power. I want to see a top-10 class from the Seminoles in 2025.

• Nick Saban is gone from Alabama. He was a menace in the state of Florida during his time with the Crimson Tide. He’d regularly dip into the Sunshine State and land the five-star prospects who would have gone to Florida State, Florida or Miami 15 years ago. This is an absolutely huge cycle not only for the Seminoles but also for the Gators and Hurricanes. Take your state back.

• Florida’s 2024 class lost six players who ranked in the top 150 nationally between last November and the mid-December early signing period. The Gators held onto two five-star prospects in quarterback DJ Lagway and defensive lineman LJ McCray, but they saw the wheels fall off on a once-dominant class, which ultimately finished No. 13 overall. Yes, Florida did some work in the transfer portal by bringing in 15 players, including former Arizona State wide receiver Elijhah Badger and former Colorado cornerback Cormani McClain, but recruiting hasn’t quite hit the way we thought it would. Billy Napier is in a tough spot, too. Florida’s schedule this season is brutal, and many people assume he isn’t going to make it through the year. That makes it really hard to sign an elite-level recruiting class.

• Alabama’s 2025 class has 10 commitments, including three from top-100 national prospects. The Crimson Tide’s class ranks No. 8 overall. The good news? Kalen DeBoer and his staff are landing commitments from elite-level prospects. It’s certainly not at the same rate as Saban did, but it’s irrational to expect that right out of the gate. It’s not easy replacing the GOAT. I’m looking forward to seeing where this Alabama class ultimately ranks. It’s intriguing, especially for those of us who debate whether Alabama is a top-three job in America or if Saban just made it seem that way. We’re going to find out. I’d give DeBoer, a coach who has never had to recruit at an elite level, a passing grade thus far.

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• Ohio State has had a stranglehold on the state of Ohio for more than a decade. On occasion, a team will come into the state and land a player with an Ohio State offer, but it doesn’t happen often. But what happens when Georgia makes a run in the Buckeye State? The Bulldogs landed four-star quarterback Ryan Montgomery of Findlay High last month, though it must be noted that Ohio State already has a QB committed in the 2025 class (Tavien St. Clair of Bellefontaine High). But Georgia hosted five-star cornerback Trey McNutt of Shaker Heights High and top-100 running back Bo Jackson of Cleveland Villa Angela-St. Joseph last weekend, and the Bulldogs now seem to be in a great position with those players. It would be a noteworthy development if Georgia is able to snatch some top-end talent away from Ohio State.

• Five-star cornerback Dijon Lee of Mission Viejo (Calif.) High released a top four Thursday that consisted of Alabama, Georgia, Washington and Texas A&M. There is one school from Southern California that was notably absent from this list. USC is off to a solid start in the 2025 cycle, with five top-100 players committed, including five-star quarterback Julian “JuJu” Lewis of Carrollton (Ga.) High, but the Trojans have to find a way to land five-star defenders in their backyard. USC got smoked in the state of California a year ago, and while Lincoln Riley has made a few national splashes this cycle, there still seems to be something off there. Three of the top six players in California have already issued commitments — none to USC. Lee is also now seemingly out of the picture, too.

• Notre Dame currently ranks No. 1 overall in the recruiting rankings, which seems to be a trend for the Irish. The class, as it is constructed now with 21 commitments, probably won’t finish in the top five. It’s a solid class, like all of Notre Dame’s classes, but I have yet to see the Marcus Freeman difference in high school recruiting. I think Notre Dame has a good chance to go undefeated this year because it has an elite defense and a veteran roster and it made some key portal additions. Maybe that’s the plan for Notre Dame. I was just hoping to see an influx of five-stars under Freeman’s leadership, and that just hasn’t happened.

• The top 16 players in the state of Texas all rank in the top 90 nationally. Only four have issued commitments. So even though we’re heading into the summer months and things are about to get hectic, there are so many important prospects in the Lone Star State who have yet to pop. Texas’ recruiting class ranks No. 23 overall, which means absolutely nothing when basically its entire state is still uncommitted. It’ll also be interesting to see how much Texas A&M moves the needle in the second half of this cycle under first-year head coach Mike Elko.

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• Michigan has five commitments in the 2025 cycle, and two of them pledged before Jim Harbaugh left. There is very little on which to evaluate first-year head coach Sherrone Moore. Along with how Alabama looks in the post-Saban era, monitoring Michigan’s recruiting operation under new leadership will be fascinating. That’s especially true considering the state of Michigan has only one player ranked in the top 200 in this cycle, and that’s five-star quarterback and LSU commitment Bryce Underwood. What is the Wolverines’ strategy for this cycle and beyond?

• Clemson is the only Power 4 team that didn’t take a transfer in this year’s cycle. It infuriates me because I’ve been watching Dabo Swinney’s stubbornness torpedo the Clemson program for the past two years. When Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports came on “Until Saturday” a few weeks ago, he said it best: What Swinney is trying to do at Clemson is admirable. You hear what he is saying and you want to believe it. He wants to do right by his guys and that’s heartwarming. But that’s not how you win big in 2024. The more stubborn Swinney is when it comes to figuring out how to enhance his roster, the further back the Tigers are going to keep falling.

GO DEEPER

Recruiting mailbag: Making sense of Dabo’s strategy, early thoughts on Syracuse, UCLA

• I bring up the Clemson portal stuff because the Tigers always recruit solid, well-evaluated classes. So far in 2025, Clemson has five top-100 players committed. You trust Clemson’s evaluations and decisions. I think Swinney, in theory, would be open to taking more transfers if the bidding-war element didn’t exist or if players weren’t already locked up before entering the portal. I truly understand why he is hesitant. But Clemson has to figure out a way to supplement its roster to go along with its solid recruiting classes if it wants to dream about winning a national title ever again.

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• Colorado has three commitments, none of whom rank in the top 200 nationally. We’ve spent a lot of time discussing the Buffaloes’ plan, but I’ll bluntly say it again: Deion Sanders is not capitalizing on his No. 1 qualification for being a head coach — fame! — enough in the pursuit of high school athletes. We’re only halfway through the cycle so there is still time to turn things around. But nothing that has happened around that program makes me believe he’ll be the head coach in Boulder in two years.

• Oregon has seven commitments this cycle. All of those players are ranked in the top 300 nationally, and three are in the top 100. It’s still an ongoing case study in terms of where your classes need to be ranked to win a national title in this new era of college football, but the Ducks strike me as a dangerous program. They do a really good job signing deep and talented recruiting classes, and they supplement their roster with high-end portal pickups like Evan Stewart and Dillon Gabriel. Three years ago I would have said Oregon will never win a national title by recruiting good but not great classes. Now I’d buy stock in them and hold. Dan Lanning hasn’t won big on the field yet, but I get the sense it’s coming. And soon.

(Photo of Mike Norvell: Charles LeClaire / USA Today)





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Georgia politicians react along party lines to Minneapolis ICE officer shooting, killing US citizen

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Georgia politicians react along party lines to Minneapolis ICE officer shooting, killing US citizen


Local groups plan to protest around downtown Atlanta Thursday evening after a Minneapolis woman was shot and killed by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent this week. Reactions from Georgia politicians on the killing have been divided.



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Stacey Abrams rules out 2026 bid for Georgia governor

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Stacey Abrams rules out 2026 bid for Georgia governor


Politics

Two-time Democratic nominee says she’ll focus on fight against ‘authoritarianism’ instead.

Former gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams speaks at the Georgia State University Convocation Center in Atlanta on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, for a Kamala Harris campaign rally. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)

Stacey Abrams won’t be on the Georgia ballot in 2026.

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The two-time Democratic nominee for governor definitively ruled out another run for Georgia’s top job this year, saying Thursday she’ll instead continue her work fighting what she sees as the nation’s lurch toward authoritarianism under President Donald Trump.

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Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams and Republican candidate Brian Kemp greet each other before a live taping of the 2018 Gubernatorial debate for the Atlanta Press Club at the Georgia Public Broadcasting studio in Atlanta, Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018. (Alyssa Pointer/AJC)

Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams and Republican candidate Brian Kemp greet each other before a live taping of the 2018 Gubernatorial debate for the Atlanta Press Club at the Georgia Public Broadcasting studio in Atlanta, Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018. (Alyssa Pointer/AJC)

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Rev. Martha Simmons wears an “election protection” badge during election day on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, as a part of the New Georgia Project’s Faith Initiative. (Christina Matacotta for the AJC)

Rev. Martha Simmons wears an “election protection” badge during election day on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, as a part of the New Georgia Project’s Faith Initiative. (Christina Matacotta for the AJC)

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Democratic candidates for governor include (top row, left to right): Keisha Lance Bottoms, Geoff Duncan, Jason Esteves. Bottom row: Derrick Jackson, Ruwa Romman and Michael Thurmond. (AJC file photos)

Democratic candidates for governor include (top row, left to right): Keisha Lance Bottoms, Geoff Duncan, Jason Esteves. Bottom row: Derrick Jackson, Ruwa Romman and Michael Thurmond. (AJC file photos)

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Greg Bluestein

Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.

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Georgia Republicans move to scrap state income tax by 2032 despite concerns

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Georgia Republicans move to scrap state income tax by 2032 despite concerns


ATLANTA — Eliminating state income taxes sounds great to many voters, but Republicans backing the push in multiple states still face questions about whether such big tax cuts can be made without raising other taxes or sharply cutting state funding for education, health care and other services.

Georgia on Wednesday became the latest state to launch a bid to abolish its personal income tax, with Republican leaders in the Senate backing a proposal to zero it out by 2032. This year, Georgia’s personal income tax is projected to collect about $16.5 billion, or 44% of the state’s general revenue.

The push is driven by politics. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, the Republican who leads the state Senate, has made eliminating income taxes a centerpiece of his 2026 campaign for governor. State Sen. Blake Tillery, a Vidalia Republican who led a committee to abolish the tax, is among candidates to succeed Jones as lieutenant governor.

“This is the first vote that we are going to get to take to address affordability,” Tillery said.

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But it’s unclear if the proposal will pass. Georgia House Republicans may want to continue nibbling away at the tax in smaller bites, preferring a “measured” approach. Republican House Speaker Jon Burns of Newington said Wednesday that his big 2026 goal is to eliminate property taxes for homeowners, but said he’s willing to consider the Senate plan.

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, serving his last year, has been cool to total elimination of the income tax. He declined to comment Wednesday on the Senate plan, but spokesperson Carter Chapman said Kemp wants “to continue lowering taxes and putting more money in Georgians’ pockets as he has throughout his term.”

The state’s Democratic minority opposes the move, saying it would mostly benefit high earners and the state needs money to provide services.

Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns (R-Newington) holds a pre-session press conference to discuss his priorities for the 2026 legislative session, at the State Capitol in Atlanta, Ga, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026. Credit: AP/Matthew Pearson

Multiple GOP-led states seek tax cuts

Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi and Missouri have all set goals to abolish the personal income tax, joining eight other states that don’t tax personal income. Eight other states besides Georgia are cutting personal income tax rates this year, according to the Tax Foundation, a Washington, D.C., group generally skeptical of higher taxes.

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“We’ve seen a lot of states cut their income tax rates in the last four or five years, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic and coming out of it,” said Aravind Boddupalli, senior researcher at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center in Washington, D.C.

Supporters say cuts help a state compete for new residents and businesses, pointing to growth in Texas and Florida, two states without personal income taxes.

“Your income tax is a tax on productivity,” said Manish Bhatt, who studies state taxes for the Tax Foundation. “If you are taxing productivity, you are potentially losing out on economic gains.”

Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns (R-Newington) holds a pre-session press...

Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns (R-Newington) holds a pre-session press conference to discuss his priorities for the 2026 legislative session, at the State Capitol in Atlanta, Ga, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026. Credit: AP/Matthew Pearson

Front-loading cuts for lower earners

Georgia has already been cutting income taxes, taking what was once a top income tax rate of 6% and lowering it to a 5.19% flat rate. Republicans broadly support a further cut for individual and corporate taxpayers to 4.99% this year, worth an estimated $800 million in foregone tax revenue.

The Senate plan would then freeze the corporate rate and focus on individual tax cuts. It proposes in 2027 to exempt the first $50,000 of income for a single person or $100,000 for a married couple, up from $12,000 and $24,000 now.

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Faced with Democratic criticism about affordability, the big increase in exempt income is central to Republicans’ own arguments about how they can make money stretch farther. About 70% of Georgians reported less than $100,000 of taxable income in 2024, according to state figures.

“It is a plan that gives benefits first to hardworking families,” Tillery said.

The initial rate cut, plus the exemption proposal, would lower Georgia revenue by $3.8 billion in its 2027 budget year. Tillery says the state could pay by using surplus tax revenue and shifting back to paying for capital expenditures through borrowing instead of cash. But those moves probably wouldn’t cover the foregone revenue even in the first year, much less $13 billion more in cuts to get to zero.

Tillery said revenue should be bolstered by trimming business income and sales tax breaks, saying legislators should reduce “corporate welfare.” But lawmakers and Kemp have balked at curtailing those measures in recent years.

Some tax cuts backfired

Tax cuts haven’t always been a political bonanza. In Kansas, after Republicans under Gov. Sam Brownback cut income taxes steeply more than a decade ago, voters revolted at budget cuts and lawmakers imposed multiple tax increases to cover persistent budget shortfalls, including restoring some income tax cuts. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly won her first term in 2018 by framing the race as a referendum on Brownback’s policies.

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“State income taxes are only bad if you fundamentally don’t believe that the services, the public investments that state governments provide, are worth anything,” said Matt Gardner, a senior fellow with the left-leaning Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy .

In Missouri, Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe and GOP legislative leaders have made phasing out the state’s income tax a top priority for the session starting Wednesday. They’re looking to expand sales taxes to services which currently are untaxed to help offset lost revenue.

“We want to do this in a smart, efficient way that’s not going to have the state go off some sort of fiscal cliff,” Missouri House Majority Leader Alex Riley told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

But expanding sales taxes could fall more heavily on poorer taxpayers. The liberal-leaning Georgia Budget and Policy Institute estimated that if Georgia doesn’t expand its sales tax, the combined state and local sales tax rate would have to rise sharply from the current 7.42% to recover revenue losses.

All that leads to questions about income-tax elimination plans, even from Republicans. Burns, the Georgia House speaker, said he’s “open” to any plan that benefits Georgians.

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“But we’ve got to have the details, and it has to work,” Burns said. “We need to make sure we can continue to do vital services — health care, public safety, education, all the things we talked about.”



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