Florida
Tropical Storm Could Form In Gulf Or Near Florida | Weather.com
- A disturbance located near Puerto Rico could organize into a tropical depression or storm.
- That could happen by this weekend or early next week in the eastern Gulf or the Atlantic waters near Florida.
- Florida will likely see an increase in rainfall this weekend into early next week, regardless of development.
- It’s uncertain what other impacts this system might bring to Florida or other parts of the southern U.S.
A disturbance tracking through the northern Caribbean islands could form into a tropical depression or storm as it crawls toward the waters near the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida this weekend into early next week. Florida is likely to see an enhancement of rainfall from this system, regardless of how much it develops in the coming days.
Where is the disturbance now? The tropical wave that might eventually grow into a tropical depression or storm is located near Puerto Rico, or near the “X” in the graphic below, according to the National Hurricane Center.
After battling dry air for several days, the wave has sprouted increased shower and thunderstorm activity pushing westward through the northern Caribbean and southwest Atlantic. That’s one small step the system had to make on its journey to development.
When and where could it develop? The National Hurricane Center says development is possible by this weekend or early next week, generally in the shaded area on the map below from the eastern Gulf to the Atlantic waters near Florida.
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Possible NHC Development
(The possible area(s) of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An “X” indicates the location of a current disturbance.)
Is development a certainty? No, it’s not a slam dunk.
Computer models suggest wind shear may be relatively light, and there’s plenty of warm ocean water ahead of this system to fuel its development near the Bahamas or the Gulf of Mexico. These are both ingredients favorable for development.
However, this rather large tropical disturbance will likely have to interact with land along the way, particularly Hispaniola and Cuba, but also possibly Florida. So, it may take some time for one area of thunderstorms to persist over water, lower surface pressure and begin the process of developing a tropical depression, if that happens at all.
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Is this a U.S. threat? The short answer is probably yes, but it’s too soon to be completely sure about details.
In the past day or so, we’ve seen forecast model guidance trend the possible tropical depression or storm formation area for this system westward toward the area between the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida’s Atlantic waters. Even if it doesn’t form into tropical storm, or it does so very slowly, the system is likely to enhance rainfall in Florida this weekend into early next week.
It’s also too early to determine what other impacts this system might bring to Florida or any other parts of the southern U.S.
There is also the possibility for the system’s forward speed to at least temporarily slow to a crawl next week if it develops, particularly if it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
The potential rainfall outlook shown below will likely change in future updates depending on the unknown details of this system.
Rainfall Outlook
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. It could shift in future updates depending on how well organized this system becomes as well as its future track.)
For now, be sure to check back frequently to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for forecast updates in the days ahead.
Is this the seasonal ramp-up? The Atlantic has been accumulating Saharan dust since Hurricane Beryl’s demise about three weeks ago.
This perk-up of activity comes amid the beginning of the most active time of the year in the tropics and a wave of more favorable atmospheric conditions known as the favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
This wave travels around the globe once every 40 or so days and gives a boost to the tropics as it passes over. Recently, a Category 4 typhoon and tropical storm formed in the western Pacific after a cyclone drought similar to what has been seen in the Atlantic.
August, September and October are the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is because water temperatures are often at their warmest, wind shear is at its lowest and humidity has increased across the basin.
(WATCH: Expert Discussion – Watching Hurricane Season)
The corridor where this upcoming system will traverse is a common one for storms in August.
Typical Formation Areas in August