Nasty weekend on tap for Central Florida. Here’s what we know

ORLANDO, Fla. – A strong pressure gradient continues to hold across Central Florida on Thursday, which will keep very windy conditions in the region — sustained winds from 20-25 miles per hour and gusts up to 35-40 miles per hour out of the northeast.

A wind advisory continues for coastal areas, with a high surf advisory and coast flood warnings up and down the beaches. The first high tide of the event will occur just after 8 a.m. and again just after 9 p.m. With rough surf and breaking waves, moderate erosion is expected at many beaches into the evening.

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Along the strong breeze, speedy showers will continue to clip the coastline and track a few miles inland. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid-70s, with overnight lows in the 60s,

As we enter into the weekend, we will transition into a much more active weather pattern, with strong winds, heavy rainfall and even a few thunderstorms.

Models are in good agreement that a low-pressure system will develop over the Gulf of Mexico off an old stationary boundary. Where models disagree is with the timing and exact track as it moves over Florida this weekend.

The American GFS slides the low over north Florida by Saturday afternoon. Euro models bring in the low slower and further south.

Despite the differences, expect unsettled and stormy weather to arrive by Saturday afternoon. Heavy rain will increase the likelihood for flooding as rainfall amounts could reach 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts of 6 inches.

The exact timing and placement of the developing low will determine the extent of our severe weather threat.