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Florida vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?

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Florida vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?


Tennessee has almost certainly played itself out of the College Football Playoff conversation, but it can still put itself into a decent bowl and end its season on a high note with a win here, combined with another against insurgent rival Vanderbilt.

Florida has no ability to get to a bowl at just 3-7, but can hand two of its rivals an ugly late-season loss with a good showing against the Vols this week and then against Florida State in the finale.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators football game prediction

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1. Tennessee’s Offensive Explosiveness

Tennessee enters the matchup with the No. 2 offense in the country, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar and a host of playmakers at the skill positions.

The Volunteers average 43.4 points per game and almost 500 total yards, frequently hitting explosive plays in the passing game and mixing in a solid running attack.

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For Florida to have a chance, its defense must contain Tennessee’s high-powered offense and disrupt Aguilar’s rhythm early.​

2. Florida’s Run Defense and Second-Half Play

A key storyline is Florida’s struggle against the run, giving up 470 rushing yards in its last two games, and its inability to play a full 60 minutes, particularly on offense.

Tennessee uses their run game to set up play action, and Florida’s defense must get set quickly against the Vols’ up-tempo approach.

The Gators also need to improve offensively in the second half, as scoring droughts and stalled drives have cost them winnable games.​

3. Turnover Margin

Both teams have had turnover issues, but it has been particularly damaging for Florida, ranking near the bottom nationally in giveaways.

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Tennessee is opportunistic, forcing 19 turnovers this season, and the Volunteers thrive when winning the turnover battle.

Key takeaways or lost possessions could swing momentum and prove decisive in a game that is expected to be close, with simulations and expert picks predicting a one-score outcome.

Bettors predictably are siding with the Vols, but expect a much closer game.

Tennessee is a 3.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updates game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -178 and for Florida at +150 to win outright.

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Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers football game prediction

Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Tennessee has not won a game at Florida since 2003, a streak of 10 straight losses, but if there is a year where the Gators can get got in the Swamp, this is it. Just ask USF.

Joey Aguilar leads a Vols offense that is among the most explosive and consistent in college football, but it has one major weakness, turning the ball over at the worst times. Still, the Gators are worse in that department, averaging 90th in FBS in turnover margin.

Florida has bodies on defense that can make this interesting. Consider close results against Georgia and Ole Miss, and a win against a then top-ten Texas at home.

And with nothing to lose, they could make this very close, especially against a Tennessee pass defense that is just 118th in the country.

College Football HQ picks…

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When: Sat., Nov. 22
Where: Florida

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Officials withheld evidence on Florida’s ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ funding, environmental groups say

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Officials withheld evidence on Florida’s ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ funding, environmental groups say


ORLANDO, Fla. — Federal and state officials withheld evidence that the Department of Homeland Security had agreed to reimburse Florida for some of the costs of constructing an immigration detention center in the Florida Everglades known as “Alligator Alcatraz,” according to environmental groups suing to shut down the facility.

The Everglades facility remains open, still holding detainees, because an appellate court in early September relied on arguments by Florida and the Trump administration that the state hadn’t yet applied for federal reimbursement, and therefore wasn’t required to follow federal environmental law.

The new evidence — emails and documents obtained through a public records request — shows that officials had discussed federal reimbursement in June, and that the Federal Emergency Management Agency confirmed in early August that it had received from state officials a grant application. Florida was notified in late September that FEMA had approved $608 million in federal funding to support the center’s construction and operation.

“We now know that the federal and state government had records confirming that they closely partnered on this facility from the beginning but failed to disclose them to the district court,” said Tania Galloni, one of the attorneys for the environmental groups.

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An appellate panel in Atlanta put a temporary hold on a lower court judge’s ruling that would have closed the state-built facility. The new evidence should now be considered as the judges decide the facility’s permanent fate, Friends of the Everglades and the Center for Biological Diversity, said in court papers on Wednesday.

A federal judge in Miami in mid-August ordered the facility to wind down operations over two months because officials had failed to do a review of the detention center’s environmental impact according to federal law. That judge concluded that a reimbursement decision already had been made.

The Florida Department of Emergency Management, which led the efforts to build the Everglades facility, didn’t respond to an emailed inquiry on Thursday.

Florida has led other states in constructing facilities to support President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown. Besides the Everglades facility, which received its first detainees in July, Florida has opened an immigration detention center in northeast Florida and is looking at opening a third facility in the Florida Panhandle.

The environmental lawsuit is one of three federal court challenges to the Everglades facility. In the others, detainees said Florida agencies and private contractors hired by the state have no authority to operate the center under federal law. They’re also seeking a ruling ensuring access to confidential communications with their attorneys.

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Follow Mike Schneider on the social platform Bluesky: @mikeysid.bsky.social



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Florida lawmaker files hands-free driving bill ahead of 2026 legislative session

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Florida lawmaker files hands-free driving bill ahead of 2026 legislative session


Florida lawmakers are once again trying to crack down on distracted driving, this time with a proposal that goes further than the state’s current law.

Senate Bill 1152, filed ahead of the upcoming legislative session, would make it illegal for drivers to hold a phone while operating a motor vehicle. Drivers could still use GPS, make phone calls, or use navigation apps, but only through hands-free technology such as Bluetooth or built-in vehicle systems.

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That restriction would apply even when a vehicle is stopped at a red light or in traffic. The bill defines “handheld” use broadly, including holding a phone in one or both hands or bracing it against the body.

Supporters say Florida’s existing law, which primarily targets texting while driving, doesn’t fully address the many ways drivers use their phones behind the wheel and can be difficult for law enforcement to enforce consistently.

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The bill also includes privacy protections. Law enforcement officers would not be allowed to search or confiscate a driver’s phone without a warrant.

State officials say distracted driving remains a serious and persistent problem across Florida.

By the numbers:

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The most recent available data for a single year shows nearly 300 people were killed and more than 2,200 others suffered serious injuries in crashes involving distracted drivers in 2024. A crash happens in Florida about every 44 seconds, and roughly one in seven crashes involves a distracted driver, according to state data.

Advocates point to other states with hands-free laws, saying those states have seen declines in deadly crashes after similar measures were adopted.

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READ: Trump calls for ban on Wall Street buying single-family homes, citing affordability concerns

What’s next:

The bill will be taken up during the 2026 legislative session, which begins Tuesday, Jan. 13. It must pass committee hearings and full votes in both chambers before going to the governor.

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If approved, the law would take effect Oct. 1, 2026.

The Source: This story is based on the filed text of Senate Bill 1152 and data from the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles.

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Penn State OG TJ Stranahan commits to Florida Gators

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Penn State OG TJ Stranahan commits to Florida Gators


Former Penn State interior offensive lineman TJ Shanahan committed to the Florida Gators on Tuesday, Jan. 6, reuniting him with offensive line coach Phil Trautwein in Gainesville.

Trautwein’s connection with Shanahan loomed large in his recruitment. The only visit Shanahan took was to Gainesville on Saturday, and Trautwein recruited him out of high school before he moved from Florida to Texas. The hometown angle also plays a factor here. His family lives outside of Tampa, and his cousin, Jon Halapio, played at Florida from 2009 to 2013 before being drafted in the sixth round.

247Sports does not have a transfer portal grade for Shanahan, but On3 ranks him at No. 341 overall and No. 25 among interior offensive linemen in the portal. He has two years of eligibility remaining with hopes of becoming a full-time starter at Florida.

TJ Shanahan’s college career

A consensus four-star recruit and the No. 1 interior offensive lineman in the 2023 recruiting class, Shanahan chose Texas A&M after visiting several SEC programs. He appeared in three games as a true freshman before redshirting. He became a regular in the Aggies’ offensive line rotation in 2024, playing in 10 total games. He spent time at center and left guard, starting four of five games at the latter position.

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He entered the transfer portal following coaching changes at Texas A&M, ultimately landing at Penn State. He played in all 13 games for the Nittany Lions, making five starts while jumping between both guard positions. Injuries kept him from playing a bigger role at the end of the regular season, but he played nearly 80 snaps at right guard in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Pro Football Focus gave him a 63.5 overall grade on offense, a 75.1 pass-blocking grade and a 59.2 run-blocking grade in 2025.

Florida’s interior offensive line room

Florida’s interior offensive line returns starting left guard Knijeah Harris and backup guards Roderick Kearney and Tavaris Dice Jr. Assuming Harris stays at left guard, Shanhan is a strong possibility at right guard for Florida next season. Kearney and Dice could provide depth at both positions, or the former could transition to center in hopes of replacing All-American starter Jake Slaughter.

Florida is losing several interior linemen to graduation and the transfer portal. Along with Slaughter, Damieon George Jr. and Kamryn Waites have exhausted their eligibility. Noel Portnjagin and Marcus Mascoll are in the portal. Redshirt freshman Jason Zandamela is staying and received high praise from Slaughter.

Florida is expected to land Georgia Tech lineman Harrison Moore, which would reload the stable with plenty of room for competition at all three positions.

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Florida 2026 transfer portal additions

Shanahan is the 10th official transfer portal addition of the 2026 cycle for Florida.

On offense, Georgia Tech quarterback Aaron Philo, Cincinnati running back Evan Pryor, Georgia Tech wide receiver Bailey Stockton, Wake Forest receiver Micah Mays Jr., and James Madison tight end Lacota Dippre have committed. On defense, Florida has earned commitments from Baylor defensive lineman DK Kalu and Baylor safety DJ Coleman. The Gators are also adding a pair of special teamers from Tulane, kicker Patrick Durkin and punter Alec Clark.

Florida is also expected to land Georgia Tech interior offensive lineman Harrison Moore, who is on an official visit (Jan. 6).

Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.





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