A​ disturbance tracking through the northern Caribbean islands could form into a tropical depression or storm as it crawls toward the waters near the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida this weekend into early next week. Florida is likely to see an enhancement of rainfall from this system, regardless of how much it develops in the coming days.

W​here is the disturbance now? The tropical wave that might eventually grow into a tropical depression or storm is located near Puerto Rico, or near the “X” in the graphic below, according to the National Hurricane Center.

After battling dry air for several days, the wave has sprouted increased shower and thunderstorm activity pushing westward through the northern Caribbean and southwest Atlantic. That’s one small step the system had to make on its journey to development.

W​hen and where could it develop? T​he National Hurricane Center says development is possible by this weekend or early next week, generally in the shaded area on the map below from the eastern Gulf to the Atlantic waters near Florida.

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Is development a certainty? No, it’s not a slam dunk.

C​omputer models suggest wind shear may be relatively light, and there’s plenty of warm ocean water ahead of this system to fuel its development near the Bahamas or the Gulf of Mexico. These are both ingredients favorable for development.

However, this rather large tropical disturbance will likely have to interact with land along the way, particularly Hispaniola and Cuba, but also possibly Florida. So, it may take some time for one area of thunderstorms to persist over water, lower surface pressure and begin the process of developing a tropical depression, if that happens at all.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Is this a U.S. threat? The short answer is probably yes, but it’s too soon to be completely sure about details.

I​t’s also too early to determine what other impacts this system might bring to Florida or any other parts of the southern U.S.

There is also the possibility for the system’s forward speed to at least temporarily slow to a crawl next week if it develops, particularly if it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

T​he potential rainfall outlook shown below will likely change in future updates depending on the unknown details of this system.

For now, be sure to check back frequently to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for forecast updates in the days ahead.

Is this the seasonal ramp-up? The Atlantic has been accumulating Saharan dust s​ince Hurricane Beryl’s demise about three weeks ago.

T​his perk-up of activity comes amid the beginning of the most active time of the year in the tropics and a wave of more favorable atmospheric conditions known as the favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

This wave travels around the globe once every 40 or so days and gives a boost to the tropics as it passes over. Recently, a Category 4 typhoon and tropical storm formed in the western Pacific after a cyclone drought similar to what has been seen in the Atlantic.

A​ugust, September and October are the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is because water temperatures are often at their warmest, wind shear is at its lowest and humidity has increased across the basin.

(​WATCH: Expert Discussion – Watching Hurricane Season)

T​he corridor where this upcoming system will traverse is a common one for storms in August.

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – The tropical wave we have been telling you about for the past few days is still just that a tropical wave or line of low pressure. Although storms are starting to fire up around this system there is no sign of a closed low at this time. The system has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm late this weekend or early next week. Since the system is not really organizing that quickly it looks like the wave will get into the Gulf of Mexico instead of moving north along Florida’s east coast like the EURO has been suggesting over the past few days.

The EURO along with the American forecast model now shows the tropical wave and moisture moving into the E. Gulf of Mexico late weekend and then possibly developing in the E. Gulf of Mexico. Since the area is slow in developing it now looks more and more likely that it will bring us the potential of some heavy rain late Sunday through early next week. It is still too early to say what we will be dealing with but some heavy rain at times is a real possibility later this weekend and possible stretching into mid week next week.

Nothing to be too concerned about right now but it does need to be monitored closely over the next several days. Right now it looks like it wouldn’t be a strong tropical cyclone if it were to develop but I must remind you that intensity forecasting of any system is difficult especially with a system that hasn’t even formed a center of low pressure at the time of the writing. Water temperatures are very warm now in the Gulf and over the SE Atlantic. It will be battling some wind shear but conditions could become conducive for some more development once in the eastern Gulf. The models will be changing quite a bit so don’t focus just on where the center is projected to be in several days from now.

What you should be doing now is going over your hurricane plan and checking your hurricane supply kit. Even if this system doesn’t impact our weather we still have a long way to go with the peak hurricane months ahead of us. Also know your evacuation level, is it A,B,C,D or F. Evacuation zones are designated from A to F. Generally, Zone A is most vulnerable and most likely to be evacuated first, and Zone F is most likely to be evacuated last.

The area in which the system may develop into a tropical cyclone has shifted to the left or into the Gulf of Mexico.

Our weather for Thursday will be like it was today with a few scattered storms during the afternoon and evening otherwise look for mostly sunny skies in the morning followed by partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.

The weekend weather forecast is going to change based on the future track of this tropical disturbance. We will see our rain chances increasing as the tropical wave or whatever develops moves near or over Florida.

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MARATHON, Fla. – A Florida Keys sheriff’s deputy was arrested by her employer on more than a dozen computer crimes charges Wednesday, officials said.

Monroe County Sheriff’s Office Deputy Jennifer Ann Ketcham, 40, faces 19 felony counts of of misuse of law enforcement computers, computer networks and electronic devices, MCSO spokesperson Adam Linhardt said in a brief news release Wednesday afternoon.

“Ketcham used law enforcement databases to look up information for personal reasons beyond the legal scope of her employment as a Deputy,” Linhardt said.

Authorities didn’t elaborate on the specific nature of the allegations; Local 10 News has requested a copy of her arrest documents.

Linhardt said Ketcham, hired on June 2, 2021, was placed on administrative leave without pay pending an internal investigation; her bond was set at $1.9 million.

“I am committed to keeping this community informed of significant events that occur in this agency — good and bad,” Monroe County Sheriff Rick Ramsay said in Wednesday’s news release.

Jail records show Ketcham, of Cudjoe Key, was taken into custody at MCSO’s Marathon substation at 3103 Overseas Highway and jailed just before 3:45 p.m.

She had not been assigned a jail facility as of Wednesday afternoon.