FAU poll has Trump leading Biden in Florida, tightening US Senate race for Rick Scott

FAU pollster and political science professor Kevin Wagner said Donald Trump continues to run strong among Hispanic voters and, especially, white voters without college degrees.

Crimson Florida is more competitive than most red states with presumptive GOP White House nominee Donald Trump and incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott in closer races than conventional punditry would suggest.

That’s according to a new Florida Atlantic University-Mainstreet Research poll of Sunshine State voters released Wednesday that finds former President Trump leading President Joe Biden by just four points, 46% to 42%.

However, that lead grew to six points among those identifying as “likely” voters. It also extended to six points among all voters when independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was added to the selections.

The poll showing the 45th president with a lead outside the “dead heat” three-point margin of error was released as Trump plans to celebrate his 78th birthday Friday with a speech at one of his fan clubs, Club 47, in West Palm Beach and preps for a June 27 debate with Biden.

FAU pollster and political science professor Kevin Wagner said Trump continues to run strong among Hispanic voters and, especially, white voters without college degrees.

“That’s the base for Donald Trump and he does particularly strong there,” said Wagner. “You can see the margin between Donald Trump and Joe Biden among that group is pretty stark and that’s where a lot of the strength for the Trump vote is coming from.”

Just as tight is the contest for the U.S. Senate seat, with Republican incumbent Scott topping potential Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by just four percentage points, 46% to 42%, with 10% of those asked saying they were uncertain.

The poll found Mucarsel-Powell could be the clear choice among Democratic voters in the August primary. She led another Democratic candidate, Alan Grayson, by 31 points, 44% to 13% — but with 39% undecided.

“This is probably the biggest change we’ve seen since we started polling in Florida,” said Wagner, who is associate dean of Research and Creative Achievement at FAU.

He noted that in an April poll Scott led Mucarsel-Powell, the Miami-area former congresswoman, by a double-digit margin, 52% to 36%.

“We still have Scott with a lead but the race has tightened quite a bit,” Wagner said. “Some of that is, no doubt, due to the fact that Mucarsel-Powell really wasn’t well known when we first started to poll this race … As people get to know her, they tend to like her and you can see that in these tightening numbers.”

The poll also found that the economy (37%) and immigration (18%) topped the list of concerns for poll respondents, and those are two issues Republicans are campaigning on in Florida and across the United States. Abortion rights, an issue many state Democrats here and elsewhere are making a central theme of their campaigns, ranked third (15%).

Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.