Donald Trump’s chances of losing Florida, according to polls

Former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win Florida in November’s election, but the race in the Sunshine State could still be close, according to polling.

A recent survey of 600 registered voters by the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group, conducted September 20 and 23, showed Trump had a 1-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida (48 percent to 47). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll shows a tighter race than other Florida surveys. It was published prior to the Democratic National Committee announcing they consider Florida and its 30 Electoral College votes a “priority state that we know Democrats can win” in November. They will be investing more than $400,000 to boost Harris’ chances.

Florida was once the most vital swing state in the country, as seen when the entire 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore came down to just a few hundred votes in the state. Florida is considered to have shifted more Republican in recent years following Trump’s victories in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also won a resounding reelection victory in 2022, beating Democrat Charlie Crist by 19 points.

Florida will be voting in November on whether to overturn the state’s six-week abortion ban. Democrats believe having the hot topic issue of abortion access on the ballot will help them in both presidential and statewide races.

Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, previously said that while Harris “looks likely” to lose Florida, Trump may still need to work harder to appeal to voters in the state than he would like.

“The mere fact that Trump may have to campaign vigorously in Florida could divert resources from true swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan,” Gift told Newsweek.

“Even if Harris loses Florida, which certainly looks likely, this could cost Trump elsewhere if he’s forced to devote scarce time, resources, and energy into shoring up his lead in the Sunshine State.”

Newsweek has contacted the campaign teams for Trump and Harris for comment via email.

Other surveys beyond the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group poll give Trump a more comfortable lead in Florida.

The former president’s current average lead over Harris in Florida is 4.1 points, according to the live tracker from 538. This is a greater margin of victory than the 3.3 points which Trump beat President Joe Biden by in 2020.

An Emerson College /The Hill poll of 815 likely voters, conducted between September 3-5, showed Trump beating Harris in Florida by 5 points (50 percent to 45). The results have a margin or error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Trump also leads Harris in Florida by 5 points (50 percent to 45) in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll of 1,602 likely voters conducted September 16-19.

The most recent Morning Consult survey of 2,948 likely voters, conducted September 9-18, gave Trump a 3-point lead over Harris in Florida (50 percent to 47).

Forecaster Race to the White House is giving Trump a 83 percent chance of victory in Florida in November’s election.