DeSantis’ hold on Florida Is slipping. Trump could deliver the final blow

Governor DeSantis began to accumulate power during the COVID-19 pandemic and became especially popular among conservative Republicans in Florida and across the country.

He allowed businesses to reopen, required in-person education earlier than most other states, and took a strong stance against vaccine and mask mandates. He then began his attacks on critical race theory, DEI, and other “woke” policies which were even more popular with conservatives.

Lots of conservatives began moving to the “Free State of Florida,” he was able to raise more than $200 million of dollars for his reelection—a record for any governors race in the U.S.—Florida voter registration and voting became much more Republican, DeSantis won a 2nd term in a landslide—the highest percent of the vote for a Republican candidate in Florida history. DeSantis’ national profile rose and he eventually ran against Trump.

During this 5-year period, the legislature stopped acting like an independent branch of government: partly because many Republican members and the leadership agreed with his conservative policies but also partly because they feared DeSantis because of his popularity, his money, his vetoes, and his reputation for political vindictiveness.

Some examples of this are attacking Disney for speaking out against the Don’t Say Gay Bill, removing elected local government officials over policy and political disagreements, vetoing the legislative priorities of the leadership and then making a joke about it while they were on stage with him, and threatening to go after Republicans who disagreed with him in primary elections.

But now, the legislature is seeking to reassert itself as an independent branch of government that acts as a check and balance to the executive. This is happening now because the new House Speaker and Senate President have decided that the legislature needs to reassert itself as it has traditionally done.

In the two decades before DeSantis—and even in his first year—the legislature and governor’s office have been controlled by Republicans. They often agreed on policy, but sometimes they had differences, and the governor treated the legislature with respect and as an equal branch.

It is also happening now because Governor DeSantis’ perceived power has gone down: he ran against Trump and lost by a wide margin which reduced DeSantis’ aura of invincibility—he is a lame duck governor with 2 years left who cannot run for reelection—and he does not have $200 million to threaten members.

The governor precipitated this political reckoning when he insisted on calling a special session just 5 weeks before the legislature would meet in regular session and doing so with little advance notice or consultation with the Senate President and House Speaker who had made clear they did not think it was necessary to do so.

Objectively, the legislature’s bill is not “weak” on illegal immigration. It creates a bunch of new policies to crack down on illegal immigration in Florida making life much harder for people living here without documentation and much easier for them to be removed by the federal government with much more assistance from the state.

It is different than the governor’s bill in several major ways, including putting oversight and enforcement of the new law under the Commissioner of Agriculture instead of the governor, it requires law enforcement to use their best efforts to cooperate with federal immigration authorities but does not threaten law enforcement with job loss or financial penalties, and it would not track and/or make it unlawful for undocumented people to wire money to family back in their home country.

Politically, this is bringing Florida back to what we have normally seen—and what is found in most states over time. The legislature is a coequal branch of government with the executive branch. But we don’t know for sure what will happen yet and DeSantis could yet impose his will on the legislature.

The big unknown currently is Donald Trump. If he takes a side the fight will likely end pretty quickly, and if he sides with the governor, the legislature will almost certainly back down. If he backs the legislature than DeSantis’ political reputation will take a big hit. If Trump stays out of the fight, then it might be a long battle, but DeSantis will clearly be politically weaker than he has been and his political prospects for the future somewhat dimmer.

If there is a big crackdown on illegal immigration in Florida across the board then it will hurt the state’s economy. There are an estimated 800,000 undocumented or illegal immigrants in Florida and most of them are working in agriculture, construction, and the service industry like hotels and restaurants.

Aubrey Jewett, PhD, is Associate Director and Associate Professor in the School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs at the University of Central Florida and the co-author of Politics in Florida, 5th edition.

All views expressed are the author’s own.