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Could tropical storm or hurricane affect your Florida Fourth of July plans?

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Could tropical storm or hurricane affect your Florida Fourth of July plans?



AccuWeather ‘not sounding alarm bells’ but don’t let your guard down

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The second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to form today or Saturday, less than a week before the Fourth of July holiday.

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Predictions call for it to quickly become the first hurricane of the season as it moves into the Caribbean.

Although it’s currently Invest 95L, once named, it’ll be Beryl.

➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 95L

➤ Track all active storms

While the future Beryl is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend, predictions on where it will go after that depend on a variety of factors.

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Could Florida feel an impact from what will become Beryl, and could any impacts affect your Fourth of July plans? Here’s what you should know.

Current forecast for Invest 95L. When will it become Tropical Storm Beryl?

Invest 95L: A low pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined.

Showers and thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or on Saturday.

Tropics watch June 28: Tropical Storm Beryl expected to form soon

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This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend. Residents in the area should monitor the progress of this system.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
  • Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.

Spaghetti models for Invest 95L. Will it approach Florida?

Can’t see the map? Open in a new browser.

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

Invest 95L becoming better organized. Could become hurricane early next week

“As we speak, the storm is betting a lot better organized and may form later today or by tomorrow morning” into Tropical Storm Beryl, said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster

“The official forecast is for a strong tropical storm to approach the Less Antilles Monday. It may become a hurricane by then, and we’re getting a little more concerned about that possibility” DaSilva said.

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“There’s plenty of warm water. Wind shear is decreasing as the storm moves west. It’s dealing with some dry air and wind shear right now but (conditions) are turning more favorable for development over the weekend.”

Timeline: Where could Beryl go and when will it become a hurricane?

Look for the storm to approach the Lesser Antilles Monday and move into the Central Caribbean Tuesday or Wednesday.

Where it goes after that, along with development, depend on a couple of factors: land interaction and a system of high pressure over the southeastern United States, DaSilva said.

If it moves over Hispaniola or eastern Cuba, the land and mountains could disrupt its circulation, leading to less organization and weakening from a wind speed perspective. That doesn’t mean those areas wouldn’t feel an impact from the storm, which could dump a huge amount of rain on the islands, DaSilva said.

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By the Fourth of July, the storm will likely be a hurricane in the western Caribbean, south of Cuba.

“From that point, we’re going to have to watch an area of high pressure across the southeastern U.S. If there is weakness in that high-pressure system, (Beryl) could be drawn up north into either the Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula,” DaSilva said.

Timing would be next weekend if it does get drawn north, so really watch this thing July 5-7, DaSilva said.

If the system of high pressure stays strong, the storm will be forced west and go into Yucatan and Mexico. with no real impacts to the U.S.

Will Florida feel any impact from Beryl on Fourth of July?

The system that’s expected to become Beryl is compact so nothing should be felt across Florida on the Fourth of July that’s associated with the storm.

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“You may get just the normal run-of-the-mill summer thunderstorms, but nothing associated with Beryl,” DaSilva said.

July 4th Florida forecast: Scorching heat and severe storms ahead. Where to watch in Florida. See radar

Worst-case scenario: Florida could feel impact from Beryl by next weekend

Long-range forecasts can change a lot and depend on several evolving factors, but the worst-case scenario could see some impact from Beryl across Florida next weekend.

How much or even if anything is felt depend on the state of the storm later next week and interaction with the islands, which could pull it apart. But if there’s less interaction with land, the system could become more organized, DaSilva said.

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A worst case scenario all depend on the state of the storm next week and that interaction with Cuba and Hispaniola. One possibility is rain associated with Beryl affecting Florida next weekend.

The most likely scenario is that Beryl will head west into Mexico and miss Florida entirely, DaSilva said.

“We want people to be alert and aware. We don’t want people to be caught off guard. We’re not sounding alarm bells, and the holiday looks OK. Beyond that, just watch and see,” DaSilva said.

Hurricane Beryl likely to ‘plow’ through Windward Islands next week

Hurricane Tracker App tweeted Friday morning:

“It’s becoming likely that we will have a Hurricane named #Beryl plowing through the Windward Islands Mon am through Tues am.

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“Data shows it reaching Cat 1 status with winds 74-95 mph. All interests in the Windward Islands should be preparing for a hurricane. Upgrade likely today (Friday, June 28).”



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Iranian drones in Cuba could threaten South Florida, officials warn

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Iranian drones in Cuba could threaten South Florida, officials warn


An Iranian-made drone displayed at the Biltmore Hotel served as a stark warning from national security advocates and South Florida officials who say Cuba’s growing military ties with Iran could pose a threat to the United States.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, chairman of the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, joined U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Florida, to highlight concerns about what they say are roughly 300 Iranian drones that have been delivered to Cuba.

Standing alongside one of the drones, Bush described the weapon as among the deadliest battlefield threats faced by American forces in recent years.

“Most loss of life of the U.S. military than any single weapon that exists over the last 15 years,” Bush said.

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Gimenez warned that the drones’ capabilities make them particularly concerning because of their ability to carry significant explosive payloads over long distances.

“This particular model, there is about over 100 pounds of explosives,” Gimenez said. “That’s a pretty big bang. That’s why they call them kamikaze drones — they crash into their target and they explode.”

According to Gimenez, the drones can reach speeds of about 115 miles per hour and travel more than 1,000 miles, placing South Florida well within range. He said the aircraft could also reach the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay and other cities throughout the southeastern United States, including Tallahassee and Atlanta.

The congressman said one of the primary concerns is the potential for Iran-style drone warfare tactics, in which large numbers of drones are launched simultaneously to overwhelm air defense systems.

While the United States has sophisticated defense systems capable of intercepting incoming drones, Gimenez noted that a successful strike may require only one, or a handful of aircraft to penetrate those defenses.

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The event was organized by United Against Nuclear Iran, which has sought to draw attention to expanding military and strategic cooperation between Iran and countries aligned with its interests, including Cuba.

Supporters of the group’s effort say the growing presence of Iranian military technology in the Western Hemisphere warrants increased attention from policymakers and defense officials.

For South Florida residents, the warning underscores the region’s proximity to Cuba and the continuing role the island nation plays in broader geopolitical tensions involving the United States and its adversaries.



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Video shows man attack Florida deputies in snake-and-gator-infested canal, sheriff says

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Video shows man attack Florida deputies in snake-and-gator-infested canal, sheriff says


Body camera video shows a man fighting with Florida deputies who were trying to rescue him from a snake-and-alligator-infested canal, authorities said.

The incident happened July 3 when Flagler County Sheriff’s Office deputies found a man lying on the ground shirtless in front of an elementary school.

The man, 47-year-old Ryan McMinn, who had been then subject of a previous welfare check, fled on foot, the sheriff’s office said.

A short time later, authorities received a call about a man trying to climb on the side of a house in Palm Coast.

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Deputies responded and found McMinn near the canal behind the house and when he spotted the deputies, McMinn ran into the canal and started swimming, authorities said.

“What’s your name?” a deputy asks him in the bodycam footage, as McMinn is seen swimming backwards. “You getting tired?”

Officials said McMinn was ordered to get out of the water multiple times but refused, and when he started to show signs of exhaustion, two deputies went into the canal to pull him out.

The video released by the sheriff’s office on Monday shows the deputies wading into the water before a struggle ensues.

Authorities said McMinn tried to grab one deputy’s head to push it under the water, before he tried to grab the neck of the other deputy.

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The deputies were able to get control of McMinn and get him safely to shore.

He was hospitalized before he was arrested and booked into jail on two counts of battery on a law enforcement officer.

“Battering a Deputy Sheriff will guarantee you the loss of your freedom and a trip to jail,” Flagler Sheriff Rick Staly said. “These deputies went into the water to rescue this guy, and he responded by fighting them. I commend our deputies for their willingness to get in a canal that usually have snakes and gators and pull this guy to safety before he drowned.”



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Heat alerts expand across Florida as dangerous temperatures return

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Heat alerts expand across Florida as dangerous temperatures return


The Sunshine State closed out the first month of meteorological summer with a mixed-bag of temperatures, as daily thunderstorm activity helped to keep some communities cooler while others reported one of their hottest Junes on record.

The contrasting observations across the state highlights just how localized Florida’s weather can be, with the sometimes cooler than average temperatures occurring just miles away from heat islands.

Clermont, in Central Florida, recorded its warmest June when compared to typical values, finishing about 4 degrees above average for the month. Meanwhile, Pensacola was the coolest major metro area across the state, ending the month approximately 2 degrees below average.

Cooler than average temperatures were largely found along the Panhandle, while Central and South Florida were home to the heat.

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June temperature departure map.

Regions that experienced frequent afternoon showers and thunderstorms generally recorded temperatures closer to seasonal averages, while locations that missed out on the rainfall often experienced temperatures that were well above average.

As a whole, warmer readings outweighed the cooler ones during the first month of meteorological summer, allowing the Sunshine State to experience one of its tenth warmest Junes on record.

The arrival of July has done little to change the pattern, with temperatures expected to get even warmer during the next few weeks.

Forecast models show another extended period of above-average temperatures developing this week as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Sunshine State.

The warmer conditions are expected along and north of the Interstate 4 corridor, where afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into at least the upper 90s.

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When combined with the humidity, the heat index could reach between 104 and 110 degrees through most of the state through the remaining days of the workweek and into the weekend.

Expected heat index values across Florida on Wednesday, June 8.
Expected heat index values across Florida on Wednesday, June 8.

The heat indices mean that NOAA’s HeatRisk will reach the Major category in many areas with some neighborhoods potentially reaching the Extreme category.

Residents and visitors spending time outdoors are encouraged to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the air conditioning and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest parts of the day.

Forecast guidance suggests that some ridging will remain in place through at least the middle of next week, leading to several days of above normal heat.

Due to the abundance of seeking air, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be hard to come by.

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Whether the current pattern persists through the remainder of the month remains uncertain, but the final week of July is climatologically the warmest period of the year, when average afternoon highs reach at least the low to mid-90s.

Synoptic setup for Thursday.
Synoptic setup for Thursday.





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