What If… Tony Romo had stayed healthy in 2016?

It’s possible that 2024 will be Dak Prescott’s last season as quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys. If so, he’ll have had a nine-year run that only a few in franchise history have bettered or even matched. Given that, it’s amazing to think about how improbable Prescott’s career has been. What if his predecessor, Tony Romo, hadn’t been injured during that 2016 preseason?

Prescott was famously taken with a fourth-round pick in that year’s NFL Draft. He didn’t arrive with fanfare; more focus was put on Dallas getting leapfrogged for Paxton Lynch in the first round or their reported interest in Connor Cook before the Raiders snatched him ahead of Dallas in the fourth round. Coming out of the draft, Prescott felt more like a runner-up and a career backup at best; another Stephen McGee to help fill the QB depth chart for a while.

Indeed, Prescott wasn’t even the primary backup upon arrival. Dallas had added Kellen Moore, a favorite of then-offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, the year before and he was the presumptive QB2. On top of that, Prescott did not have a great summer in practice and there was talk of undrafted rookie Jameill Showers outshining him. Even after Moore broke his leg early in training camp, the Cowboys tried to swing a trade for veteran Josh McCown rather than entrust backup duty to one of their rookies.

But then, once preseason action started, Prescott got the hype train rolling. In three games he went 39/50 for 454 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions with a 137.8 passer rating. Prescott also showed off his running ability with 53 yards and two more scores on just seven carries.

Prescott didn’t play in the final preseason game because, the week before, Tony Romo was injured against the Seahawks and ruled out for at least two months. Thanks to his hot August, Prescott was named the starter and helped lead the team to a remarkable 13-3 season. Even when Romo was medically cleared to return, the team stuck with their rookie sensation and embraced a new era for the franchise.

So again, what if Romo doesn’t suffer that back injury? What if he waltzes into 2016 still the starting quarterback? How might Cowboys history have changed?

The biggest question of all is if Romo would’ve made the 2016 Cowboys a better team, and that’s a tough one given what they accomplished without him. 13 regular season wins, a division title, and a competitive showing in their playoff loss to the Packers; there were all about the peak of what Romo did in his best seasons with Dallas.

Even in the playoffs, the rookie Prescott had a strong game going head-to-head with Aaron Rodgers and helped Dallas take it down the final ticks. The Cowboys rallied from a 28-13 deficit going into the fourth quarter to tie it up late, and only a final drive and a 51-yard field goal from Mason Crosby lifted Green Bay to the win that day. Prescott looked the part of a championship-level quarterback that day.

Still, there’s no denying Romo’s experience would have served the team well in moments. He was also a more fearless type of QB, and perhaps some of that moxie would have led to big plays when the more conservative Prescott played it safe. But on the other hand, with only four total picks thrown that year, Prescott’s style might have helped the Cowboys avoid some of the pitfalls that Romo’s risk-taking occasionally led to. Their differences probably balanced out over the season as a whole.

Now this is where it really gets interesting. If Romo had remained the starter, how long would that have continued beyond 2016? And would that have affected Prescott’s career?

One reason that Dallas chose Prescott over Romo was that the veteran was already 36 and decidedly injury-prone. If he’d had a healthy and productive 2016 season, would Romo have moved into broadcasting the following year or given it another go? That’s hard to say without seeing how he would’ve performed the season before, nor can we assume that avoiding that preseason injury means he wouldn’t have been hurt at some other point in 2016. One thing that we do know about Romo, even before that final injury, was that his body was breaking down.

Still, let’s pretend that Romo stays healthy in 2016 and decides to give it one more go in 2017. Maybe he makes it through that year, maybe he doesn’t. Maybe the scenario we saw play out the year before then comes to fruition; Prescott gets his shot and shows he’s a gamer. But if Romo hangs on another two years and then retires, Dallas would’ve gone into the 2018 offseason with a big question mark at quarterback.

True, Prescott would’ve had his big preseason performances to entice the team. But that 2018 QB class of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson would’ve been tough for the Cowboys to ignore. Depending on how Dallas performed the year before and where their first-round pick might have fallen, could they have chosen their next starting QB here and left Prescott resigned to backup duty?

Or what if Romo makes it through 2016 but then either retires or gets hurt early? Remember, the 2017 season wasn’t a fun one for Dallas. That was the year of Elliott’s suspension, Dez Bryant’s declining play as WR1, the infamous Chaz Green debacle in Atlanta, and a suspect defense incapable of causing turnovers. If this had been Prescott’s entry to the NFL, without that year of experience under his belt, how badly might it have hurt his stock going forward?

One thing is clear; 2016 was the best point possible for Prescott to get his opportunity to start. Elliott was the freshest and most dynamic version of himself, the offensive line was humming behind Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and Travis Frederick, and other veteran pieces like Bryant and Jason Witten were still viable for a contending team. Even with a relatively poor defense that year, Prescott was able to help lead the other side of the ball to overcome that and post one of the team’s most impressive seasons of the modern era.

If that shot hadn’t come when it did, Prescott may have never been given the reins. He could have stayed on the bench behind Romo for a few years, then been leapfrogged by a high pick in the 2018 draft. Or if he’d had to play in 2017 in less ideal circumstances, it could’ve prompted the team to start looking elsewhere. After all, he was only a former fourth-rounder anyway. It’s not like they saw him as their QB of the future when they took him.

So if 2024 does prove to be Dak Prescott’s finale with the Dallas Cowboys, it will cap nearly a decade of quarterback play that could’ve easily never happened. Prescott wasn’t brought in as the heir apparent to Tony Romo, but circumstances opened the door and his performance forced that transition to occur. It’s amazing how a franchise’s fate can alter on such a narrow margin, but that’s what makes Prescott’s run one of the great “What Ifs” in Cowboys history.