Dallas, TX
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 11-23-2023
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It’s Thanksgiving Day here in the United States and that brings plenty of familiar things to the table: turkey, family and, of course, football. A pair of NFC East rivals lock up on the gridiron in a traditional Thanksgiving Day rivalry game when the Washington Commanders travel to the Lone Star State to take on the Dallas Cowboys Thursday afternoon. Washington was beaten 31-19 at home by the Giants in their previous contest Sunday, losing outright as a 7.5-point favorite. Dallas rolled to a 33-10 road win over Carolina in their previous game Sunday, covering the line as an 11-point favorite. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Cowboys own a 76-46-2 advantage though it was the Commanders taking a 26-6 win at home in the most recent matchup on January 8, 2023.
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Washington Commanders Looking to Pull Divisional Upset
Washington imploded, shooting themselves in the foot time and again, leading to their fourth loss in the last five games as they were beaten by the struggling Giants. The Commanders dropped to 4-7 on the season and sit third in the NFC East, while they stand 12th in the NFC playoff picture. Against the Giants, Washington never led in the game as they trailed 7-3 after the opening quarter, 14-9 at the half and 14-12 after three quarters before getting outscored 17-7 in the final stanza to take the loss. The Commanders held a 403-292 edge in total offense, piled up 28 first downs while allowing 13 and controlled the clock by a 34:51 to 25:09 margin yet lost. Washington missed an extra point, gave up four sacks and turned the ball over six times, leading to 21 Giants points, including a pick-six, while not recording a takeaway in the game.
The Commanders enter week 12 11th in the league in passing offense with 245 yards per game while they are 26th in rushing by averaging 95.7 yards per contest on the ground. Washington is 17th in the league in scoring offense by putting up 21.5 points per game while they are 32nd in the league in scoring defense by allowing an average of 27.7 points per game. Sam Howell is 295 of 442 passing for 3,038 yards with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while ranking second on the team with 209 rushing yards and two scores. He has been sacked a staggering 51 times on the season. Brian Robinson Jr. leads the team with 138 carries for 558 yards and five scores on the ground. Antonio Gibson (30 carries, 137 yards) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (20 carries, 104 yards) are the secondary backs in the system. Terry McLaurin leads the team with 56 receptions for 644 yards and two scores this season. Curtis Samuel (38 catches, 343 yards, two TD), Logan Thomas (43 grabs, 409 yards, three TD), Jahan Dotson (37 receptions, 383 yards, four TD), Robinson Jr. (27 grabs, 314 yards, three TD) and Gibson (30 catches, 269 yards, two TD) are each over 250 receiving yards this season. Joey Slye is 22 of 24 on extra point attempts and 16 of 20 on field goal attempts with a long of 61 this year.
The early injury report for the Commanders had a fair number of names on it. Monday, the team didn’t practice but the Commanders released their report based on an estimate of how much participation each player would have had. Fullback Alex Armah (hamstring), cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. (elbow), linebacker De’Jon Harris (quad) and defensive end James Smith-Williams (hamstring) were estimated as did not practice. Guard Sam Cosmi (chest), running back Antonio Gibson (toe) and defensive back Jartavius Martin (shoulder) were each estimated as limited. Watch for updates heading toward kickoff.
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Dallas Cowboys Trying to Keep Pace in NFC East Race
Dallas earned their second straight win and their fourth in the last five games as they rolled past Carolina on the road Sunday afternoon. The Cowboys improved to 7-3 on the season and stood second in the NFC East: they do own the top wild card spot in the NFC playoff picture. Against Carolina, Dallas never trailed as they led 7-0 after the opening quarter, 17-3 at the half and 17-10 after three quarters before breaking the game open with two touchdowns in 10 seconds early in the fourth quarter to roll to the victory. The Cowboys owned a 311-187 advantage in total offense, picked up 23 first downs while allowing 13 and owned a 31:21 to 28:39 advantage in time of possession. Dallas forced two turnovers, including a pick-six, while not committing any in the game.
This season, the Cowboys are 6th in the league in passing offense with 255.5 yards per contest. Dallas is 12th in rushing offense with 116.8 yards per game this season. The Cowboys are 2nd in scoring offense as they average 30.2 points a night. Dallas stands 5th in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 17.5 points a contest. Dak Prescott has hit 237 of 338 passes for 2,604 yards with 19 touchdowns and six interceptions on the year. He has been sacked 22 times for 155 yards in losses while adding 141 yards plus two scores on the ground. Cooper Rush is 15 of 20 for 114 yards and an interception. Tony Pollard leads the team on the ground with 147 carries for 590 yards and three scores. Rico Dowdle (55 carries, 235 yards, TD), KaVontae Turpin (eight carries, 79 yards, TD) and rookie Deuce Vaughn (21 carries, 38 yards) have all seen some work in the ground game as well. CeeDee Lamb leads the team with 74 receptions for 1,013 yards and five touchdowns this season. Michael Gallup (27 catches, 344 yards, TD), Pollard (33 catches, 209 yards), Brandin Cooks (29 grabs, 380 yards, three TD) and tight end Jake Ferguson (39 grabs, 386 yards, four TD) are the other players with more than 200 receiving yards this season. Brandon Aubrey is 29 of 31 on extra point attempts and 21 of 21 on field goal attempts with a long of 58 this season.
Dallas had a walkthrough practice on Monday. Their early injury report showed that running back Rico Dowdle (ankle) and safety Jayron Kearse (back) did not practice while wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (ankle) and tackle Terrence Steele (ankle) were limited. Watch for further information regarding their statuses leading to kickoff.
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Washington’s playoff hopes likely were flushed down the toilet with their loss to the Giants at home Sunday. Turning the ball over six times and giving up four sacks to a Giants’ team that has been bad this season is concerning. Washington gave up 10 sacks to the Giants in their two meetings this season: by comparison, New York has just nine sacks in their other nine games combined. Now, you have to block Micah Parsons and a Dallas defense that has rung up 33 sacks, including 12 in the last two weeks. Howell has been running for his life this season, getting sacked a league-high 51 times. The Commanders don’t have the weapons to keep up in a shootout and they lack the run game to control the clck. Dallas waltzes to the home victory in this contest.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys -10.5
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Washington has seen the over hit in six of their 11 games this season. On the road, the Commanders have gone over the number in three of their six tilts away from FedEx Field this season. They went over in their last road game, as they fell 29-26 to Seattle on November 12. Dallas has seen the over hit in six of their 10 games this season. The Cowboys have gone over the total in three of their four home games this season, scoring at least 30 points in each of those contests. Four of the last six meetings between the teams have stayed under the number, including both last season. With that said, Dallas has been piling up points at home and that doesn’t change here. Look for this game to wind up over the total.
Prediction: Over 48.5