The undeniable truths about the 8-3 Dallas Cowboys

(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Nov. 27, 2023.)

Jerry Jones’ over-the-top ownership antics make the Dallas Cowboys inviting targets. We’ve heard plenty about the team’s easy schedule (Dallas has not defeated a team that has a winning record, after collecting five such victories last season). The giant gap between Jones’ in-season bluster and the Cowboys’ recent postseason record justifies skepticism.

With those qualifiers out of the way, let’s hit those undeniable truths:

• Dallas ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA per play since Dan Quinn became defensive coordinator in 2021. The team ranked 23rd the year before Quinn arrived. That’s a huge improvement and a leading reason Dallas ranks third behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in winning percentage over that span.

• Dallas has scored 15 touchdowns on defense since Quinn arrived. That is one more than the Cowboys managed in the eight seasons before Quinn arrived. It is five more defensive touchdowns than any other team has scored since 2021 (New England has 10). It is triple the league average since then.

• The Cowboys’ defense over the past three seasons ranks fourth in EPA per play even if we remove all defensive touchdowns across the league over that span. Yes, those big plays carry outsized value, but Dallas has a top-five statistical defense under Quinn even without a big boost from that component. This jibes with the team’s No. 4 ranking since 2020 in defensive success rate, which is the percentage of plays that reduced the opponent’s chances for scoring.

• Quarterback Dak Prescott’s current six-game stretch is the best of his career within a season for passer rating (122.6), touchdown passes (18), adjusted yards per pass attempt (10.2) and net adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.2), per Pro Football Reference. Prescott, in his first season with coach Mike McCarthy handling play-calling, has started the first 11 games of a season for the first time since 2019.

• Dallas is averaging 27.0 offensive points per game, its best figure through the first 11 games of a season since 2007. Having a strong defense can enable scoring by creating short fields, but with Dallas scoring so many touchdowns on defense, including a record five pick-sixes for cornerback Daron Bland, the Cowboys’ average starting field position is merely good (12th), not elite.

None of this suggests the Cowboys are likely to beat the Eagles or 49ers in a playoff game. It’s notable that Dallas ranks only 23rd in rushing defense success rate, which could matter more in playoff games against those NFC powers. The Dallas offense likely will need to play well enough to build leads so that Quinn can leverage the Cowboys’ big advantage in pass-rushing.

The Cowboys can worry about that in January. Right now, they are producing as well on both sides of the ball as they have in a long time.

(Photo: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)