NFL picks: Dallas’ roaring start, the AFC West’s offensive defenses and a big game in Detroit

Around the NFC

Dallas rolling. The ultimate measure will be postseason success, but it’s hard to imagine a much better start for Dallas. Its defense under Dan Quinn looks like the NFL’s best with Micah Parsons leading the way. The team’s scored 70 points already in two games and enters Sunday at Arizona as a 12.5-point favorite. In a league built on parity, Dallas’ point differential (plus-60) through two games was twice the next-closest (San Francisco). That’s a pretty good way to open the season, though they suffered a big blow this week when star corner Trevon Diggs tore his ACL in practice.

Rare 2-0 battle. Speaking of parity, there are eight 2-0 teams in the league and, just as everybody predicted, three of them are in the NFC South. Tampa’s one of them, and the Bucs play in the lone matchup of unbeaten teams on the Week 3 docket Monday night when they host Philadelphia. Baker Mayfield’s very much enjoyed throwing to Mike Evans (12 catches, 237, two touchdowns) so far, but this will be a new level of early season challenge.

Niners rack it up. San Francisco rolled to another 30-plus point outing in a Thursday night win at home against the Giants. Kyle Shanahan, Brock Purdy and company have scored 30-plus all three times out this year. Not only that, but they’ve done it seven of their past eight regular-season games dating to last year and haven’t lost a regular-season game since falling to 3-4 on Oct. 23 last year. That’s 13 wins in a row. That’s good.

Around the AFC

No defense in West. Early season stats can look a little bit wonky, but here’s a Week 3 doozy: Through two games across the NFL, the bottom three defenses in EPA per snap, according to Sumer Sports, are Denver and Las Vegas tied for 30th and the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 32. The Raiders (Buffalo) and Chargers (Miami) have each already played an elite offensive team, but even still, an inauspicious start for the group before any has faced Kansas City.

Ravens a fave? Baltimore got off to a good start with a win against Houston, but a road win at Cincinnati in Week 2 really sets up the Ravens well. Lamar Jackson threw for 239 yards and a pair of touchdowns and looks like he’s starting to settle into new coordinator Todd Monken’s offense. Once he starts adding in more of that explosive rushing ability, look out.

Can Jets bounce back? Now 1-1, the Jets have to try to find a way to generate offense with Zach Wilson at quarterback. His next challenge? Facing Bill Belichick’s defense. That’s never a walk in the park. In fact, the Patriots are 2.5-point road favorites. New York needs its stout defense to pave the way, but Wilson’s going to have to make plays at some point.

Game of the Week

Atlanta at Detroit

Who would have thought? But this matchup pits a couple of exciting young teams. The Falcons are 2-0 after a comeback win against Green Bay in Week 2 and they have a must-watch young group of skill players, including rookie running back Bijan Robinson. Detroit, meanwhile, could smell 2-0 before losing late to Seattle. Dan Campbell’s team has impressed overall, though. The Lions enter as 3.5-point favorites.

Lions 27, Falcons 24

Lock of the Week

Houston at Jacksonville

Yeah, it would be easy to pick Kansas City as massive 12.5-point favorites, but this one isn’t much of a reach, either. After a big opener, expect Jacksonville receiver Calvin Ridley to get back in the swing against the Texans. The Jags struggled in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs, but they’ve got playoff aspirations. If they’re going to make good on them, this is the type of game that has to end up in the win column.

Jaguars 30, Texans 17

Upset of the Week

Pittsburgh at Las Vegas

The Steelers struggled offensively but their defense scored twice on their own in a Week 2 win Monday night against Cleveland. Kenny Pickett can play better and he’s got a special receiver in George Pickens. That defense, though, is the Steelers’ calling card. There aren’t many edge duos better than T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. Even against a quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo who gets rid of the ball quickly, that duo should be able to make its mark. The Raiders are 3.5-point favorites and while playing on the road is tough, playing in Vegas, where the crowd is generally about 50/50, comes with slightly fewer challenges than other venues.

Steelers 21, Raiders 20

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