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I’ll apologize at the outset for a lengthy post, but I do believe that the Twins’ FO and coaching staff are going to be having discussions revolving around this topic, and I feel TD should have it, too.
Causes of Keuchel’s Decline
To say that I was skeptical of Dallas Keuchel’s ability to be effective as a Twins starter would be an understatement. I definitely fall on the “Keuchel’s AAA numbers are smoke and mirrors” side of the debate, and (24hrs ago) I would have rather seen a Varland/Winder/BP day start than Keuchel taking the ball. In my opinion, most of his issues related to a lack of the precise command that won him the AL Cy Young in ’15.
In that season, his sinker averaged 90.0mph, and in 2016 (the first year statcast recorded vertical movement), it averaged 25.9″ of drop (4.1″ above average). In 2022, his average sinker velocity was 87.8mph with 30.1″ of drop (3.8″ above average). This kind of regression is normal– Clayton Kershaw’s average four-seamer has lost 3.0mph in the same 2015-2023 span.
Some of the off-speed stuff is not quite there. Keuchel’s slider has regressed heavily. It averaged 52.2″ of drop and 10.1″ of sweep at 78.5mph in ’16 while presenting a very hittable 45.3″ of drop and 9.8″ of sweep at 77.0mph in ’22. His changeup was very heavy in arm-side run (18.3″ in ’15), and he has since traded ~4″ of arm-side run for ~8″ of drop.
Here is a screenshot of his Baseball Savant page with the information about his pure “stuff” (left) and control (right):
The information on the right paints a good picture of what is occurring. In ’15 and ’17, Keuchel prevented over 40 runs with pitches on the edges. His style revolved around pitching the hitter into two-strike counts and then making them swing at a pitch they weren’t looking for on a fringe. That being said, the 1st Pitch Strike Percentage and Zone Percentage dropping 4.9% and 5.8%, respectively, since 2016 is quite worrying. He found himself in 3-0 counts 5.1% of the time in ’22 (up from 3.0% in ’15) and got to 0-2 in 19.5% of his PAs in ’22 (down from 22.3% in ’15). A changeup on the low outside corner is much more dangerous in 0-2 than it is in a 3-0 count, as the hitter is likely rolling that pitch over if he swings, yet he doesn’t have to on 3-0. Pitching into good counts is how the Keuchels/Maedas/Civales of the baseball world make their living. Keuchel has not done a lot of that since the shortened COVID season and it’s been his downfall.
His inability to work counts in his favor allowed hitters to be much choosier and sit on pitches, which is exasperated by the fact that he only throws in the high 80s. He can’t throw an F-you fastball at the numbers the way Duran, Lopez, or Jax can throw on 3-0. Getting into favorable counts is imperative and a key sign of whether or not Keuchel will be able to revive his career.
His Twins Debut
On a surface level, Keuchel was great in his debut. Pitching 5.0 innings of 1 ER ball is about as good as anyone could ask for, especially when the leverage corps all had a day of rest. If we go any deeper, however, we start to run into some complexity. He gave up 8 hits and 2 walks (2.00 WHIP) while striking out none (4.46 FIP). Of course, the 61.9% groundball percentage is much closer to his ’15 GB rate (61.5%) than his ’22 rate (50.7%). His hard-hit percentage (28.6%) is lower than any full-season mark of his, as well as his average EV (81.7mph). To see whether the hits were lucky (on the part of the hitters), let’s take a look at every PA with Keuchel on the mound.
Top 1
Ketel Marte: Flyout (84.9mph at 47 degrees) .020 xBA Corbin Carroll: Walk (N/A) N/A Tommy Pham: GIDP (97.0mph at 0 degrees) .420 xBA
Top 2
Christian Walker: Groundout (39.6mph at -57 degrees) .220 xBA Lourdes Gurriel: Single (88.5mph at 16 degrees) .930 xBA Emmanuel Rivera: FC (83.1mph at -26 degrees) .070 xBA Jake McCarthy: Single (59.4mph at -55 degrees) .330 xBA Nick Ahmed: Groundout (96.9 mph at -3 degrees) .330 xBA
Top 3
Carson Kelly: Single (64.5mph at -1 degrees) .120 xBA Ketel Marte: GIDP (78.4mph at 6 degrees) .290 xBA Corbin Carroll: Single (98.6mph at 7 degrees) .590 xBA Tommy Pham: Walk (N/A) N/A Christian Walker: Lineout (112.1mph at 8 degrees) .780 xBA
Top 4
Lourdes Gurriel: Single (88.4mph at 18 degrees) .760 xBA Emmanuel Rivera: Flyout (94.0mph at 40 degrees) .020 xBA Jake McCarthy: Flyout (75.2mph at 54 degrees) .100 xBA Nick Ahmed: Lineout (97.0 mph at 17 degrees) .490 xBA
Top 5
Carson Kelly: Double (103.5mph at 5 degrees) .590 xBA Ketel Marte: Groundout (80.4mph at -8 degrees) .120 xBA Corbin Carroll: Single (60.2mph at 30 degrees) .520 xBA Tommy Pham: RBI Groundout (94.6mph at -16 degrees) .120 xBA Christian Walker: Single (26.8mph at -42 degrees) .250 xBA Lourdes Gurriel: Groundout (93.0mph at -16 degrees) .140 xBA
We can use an xBA of .350 to be our threshold of “allowable” xBA, where a hit recorded with an xBA less than .350 is judged to be “bad luck” and an out recorded on a ball with an xBA above .350 is “good luck.” Using this threshold, Keuchel had three instances of “good luck” and three instances of “bad luck.”
His average xBA was 0.343 with two walks, though only one of the eight hits went for extra bases (and none of the “loud outs” would have gone for extra bases except maybe the Walker lineout). An average xBA above .300 is quite atrocious, as it is considerably higher than his .289 xBA mark in 2022, when he was among the bottom 1% of the league in this category. Sample size and the lack of strikeouts are likely the culprit of this large number, though a 15% K-rate would only reduce the xBA to a .292 mark.
In terms of working the count, he reached zero 3-0 counts and had the hitter on an 0-2 count 21.7% of the time (very close to his ’15 number). In this regard, he performed quite well and was able to get big outs by getting ahead of guys early. Additionally, the McCarthy hit in the 2nd, the Carroll hit in the 5th, and the Walker hit in the 5th all had xBAs above .250 despite being hit slower than 61mph. Expected batting average incorporates the batter’s footspeed, and three balls hit under 61mphs resulting in hits is bad luck (despite what xBA says) as the pitcher has won if he can induce extremely weak contact.
Conclusion
Obviously, it’s hard to make concrete conclusions about a five-inning start. We’re still debating how effective Pablo Lopez, Griffin Jax, Sonny Gray, and Emilio Pagan have been, and they have had 69% (nice) of a season to give us data. As it pertains to Keuchel, the early returns are promising. He’s using the same pitch mix (sinker/changeup/cutter/slider) that he’s used for his whole career and has worked the count in a way we haven’t seen from him since his ’15-’17 stretch of dominance. His xBA allowed is quite worrying, though three soft singles likely skewed this small sample of data. His groundball rate has returned to the 60%+ range, and he only gave up two extra-base-worthy batted balls in 5.0 IP. On the whole, his performance doesn’t raise a ton of additional concern from me; however, it hasn’t inspired a ton of optimism, either.
I would feel really uncomfortable if Keuchel had to start a playoff game, but as a 6th starter, I think he brings some promise. What do you guys think? Does he deserve to start another game? Was his debut a fluke, or was it a sign that he’s a changed pitcher? Thanks for staying with me through this statcast-infused salad, and I hope we can have a good discussion about Keuchel’s future with the franchise.
Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is exploring options for a new head coach following the departure of Mike McCarthy, and one name generating buzz is franchise legend Jason Witten. Known as the best tight end in Cowboys history, Witten has long been a favorite of Jones and is being considered for the high-profile role.
McCarthy and the Cowboys parted ways after five seasons, ending a tenure that included three consecutive 12-5 records but just one playoff win. The coaching search is officially underway, and Witten’s name has surfaced alongside other contenders.
Witten, an 11-time Pro Bowler and the franchise leader in games starts, receptions, and receiving yards, has deep ties to Dallas. While his coaching experience is limited to leading a private high school team to a state championship, his leadership qualities and familiarity with the organization make him a compelling, albeit unconventional, option.
If hired, Witten would follow a path similar to Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell, another former Cowboys tight end. Campbell transitioned to the NFL coaching ranks after years of assistant coaching experience, a step Witten has yet to take. However, Jones has a history of making bold decisions, and Witten’s intimate understanding of the Cowboys’ culture could give him an edge.
While some question whether Witten’s high school coaching background is sufficient preparation for the NFL, Jones values loyalty and passion for the franchise, qualities Witten embodies. His connection with the Cowboys and leadership on and off the field could make him an intriguing choice to guide the team into its next chapter.
Jones’ next coach will be his ninth. The first four were first-time NFL head coaches, starting with Jimmy Johnson when Jones bought the team in 1989. The former University of Miami coach won back-to-back Super Bowls before an acrimonious split with Jones, his college teammate at Arkansas.
Three of Jones’ past four hires had NFL head coaching experience, including Super Bowl winners Bill Parcells and McCarthy. The exception was former Dallas quarterback Jason Garrett, the longest-tenured coach under Jones at nine-plus seasons.
The Cowboys have yet to release updates on the search, but Jason Witten remains a name to watch as the process unfolds.
About four minutes into the Dallas Mavericks’ recent contest against the Denver Nuggets, starting center Dereck Lively left the contest with an ankle injury.
Evidently, the Mavericks are already dealing with massive injuries to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Those two superstars lead the team and Lively is right up there as one of the more impactful players on the team.
However, just one day after the injury, Lively has already gotten X-ray updates back on his sprained right ankle, and it’s a bit of a relief for Mavericks fans. Chris Haynes provided the recent update.
“Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II received an X-ray on his sprained right ankle and results were negative. No timeline established as of now,” Haynes reported.
The Mavericks are struggling to stay healthy, though doing so by April is the main goal and it’s just January. Lively has had issues remaining on the hardwood for the club in his inaugural two seasons, and it’s leaving some fans concerned.
READ MORE: Latest Timeline for Luka Doncic’s Return to Dallas Mavericks Revealed
Stick with CommanderGameday and the Locked On Commanders podcast for more FREE coverage of the Washington Commanders throughout the 2024 season.
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The Dallas city manager search has unspooled in the chaotic style we’ve come to expect from this City Council. There was the ho-hum recruitment brochure draft featuring the wrong skyline. There was the council civil war over the timeline of the search and the flow of information about candidates. And nothing says “we’ve got our act together” like eleventh-hour candidate interviews the day before Christmas Eve.
When two original semifinalists and a former Dallas city official dropped out of the race, no one was surprised.
We wish the next city manager the best of luck because no amount of talent and hard work can overcome a fundamental flaw of this search, and that is the lack of formal, measurable goals by the City Council. Our city is about to hire its CEO, but its board of directors has no metrics to set expectations or hold that person accountable for the most important job in Dallas.
If you want to understand how dysfunctional the situation is, start with the fact that the council’s appointees — the city manager, city attorney, city secretary and city auditor — haven’t had a performance review in more than two years. Our last city manager, T.C. Broadnax, had his last evaluation in August 2022. He left in May 2024. Interim City Manager Kimberly Bizor Tolbert, the front-runner for the job, hasn’t had an evaluation since her appointment last spring.
The council has hired a consultant over the years to help conduct the evaluations of its appointees. But no consultant can fix this council’s main problem, and that is its inability to come together to develop a consensus around four or five priorities and the metrics to measure progress in those areas.
Even when performance reviews for council appointees were happening, the process was broken. The council’s consultant called council members individually to solicit feedback, with the consultant identifying “themes” shared verbally with the council, and with no particular comments attributed to specific people, according to a 2022 memorandum from Management Partners, the firm hired to do the work. The city manager and other appointees were “invited” to prepare a report on their accomplishments and goals for next year, with the potential for “refinements” based on council input.
There was no written report from the performance evaluation, other than any goals reports produced by the appointees.
It’s a shockingly wishy-washy approach to evaluating an employee, let alone a C-suite executive.
And don’t expect even a veneer of transparency for taxpayers. Last year, we requested Broadnax’s goal reports and were told by the city that there were no responsive records, only to hear a council member remind her colleagues last week that Broadnax produced a memo with his goals after his last performance review in 2022. City staff failed to release this memo in response to our request. Such a document should be public under the Texas Public Information Act.
Now, on the brink of hiring its next city manager, the council is panicking about the fact that it hasn’t evaluated its council appointees in a long time and that it has no measurable goals for any of them. The council committee whose job it is to codify the annual review process can’t seem to agree on how to move forward.
Mayor Pro Tem Tennell Atkins chairs the committee. In a December meeting, he led a discussion on next steps to resume performance reviews of council appointees. Council members learned that their previous consulting firm, Management Partners, had been acquired by Baker Tilly, the company that is leading the messy city manager search. But the woman who had worked closely with the council on previous performance reviews was no longer associated with either company.
The committee gave city staff mixed signals on how to proceed. Some council members said they wanted to continue working with the previous consultant. Others asked to hear from Baker Tilly. Some said they were dissatisfied with the previous consultant or concerned about Baker Tilly and wanted to hear from other vendors. Council members said to move quickly.
By the time the council committee picked the conversation back up this month, confusion reigned. Baker Tilly prepared a presentation that described a performance review process very similar to what the council had with its previous partner. Atkins indicated that the council was moving forward with Baker Tilly using an existing contract, and other committee members pushed back. Meanwhile, an assistant city manager and an assistant human resources director couldn’t answer a council member’s simple question about when the council appointees were last evaluated.
“Yes, we are overdue for these reviews, but I think that they should be pursued seriously with the appropriate time periods involved,” said council member Paul Ridley. “I don’t think we should out of convenience select someone who is doing other work for the city at the present time.”
Council member Jesse Moreno asked whether Baker Tilly would have a conflict of interest in facilitating the performance review of an executive the firm helped hire. A representative tried to assuage Moreno, but he is right to bring that up, given that Baker Tilly would be required to conduct a new search at no cost to Dallas if the city manager doesn’t last a year. Council members should be skeptical. (Keep in mind it was Baker Tilly that produced the hiring brochure for Dallas city manager. The cover photo was a shining image of the Houston skyline.)
The council now seems poised to consider other consultants for the performance evaluations. Council members should do their due diligence instead of repeating their sloppiness for the sake of comfort.
Hire a consultant, if you must, to moderate the conversation or offer pointers, but a management firm can’t do the hard work for you.
Outgoing council member Jaynie Schultz said it best: “This problem is ours as a council. We have not done our work. And so we can try spending all of our time diverting all the problem and the blame on Baker Tilly. … The delay is us, 100% us.”
The council’s job is not to run the city but to set clear, measurable expectations for the people it hires to do that. It’s telling that council members have relied on a consultant to remind them to perform a fundamental duty.
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