The biggest date remaining on the regular season schedule has arrived for the Colorado Avalanche, who have long been the most dominant team in the NHL all year long.

The Dallas Stars, however, won’t stop at nothing to overtake them.

Today, both teams will face each other one last time at American Airlines Center to close out their regular season series, with the winner potentially laying claim to a first place finish in the West.

The Avalanche wrapped up their final extended home stand on Wednesday night with an underwhelming 8-6 loss to the last-place Vancouver Canucks. The loss was the second during Colorado’s three game home stand, and while the 4-2 loss to Winnipeg a week ago was disappointing, this most recent defeat was exceptionally glaring: a host of defensive miscues and poor puck management opened the door for Vancouver to run up the score early and often. Mackenzie Blackwood, who gave up six goals on nineteen shots, was pulled with 4:39 remaining in second period in favor of Scott Wedgewood. The Avs then rallied from a 6-2 deficit to tie the game late in the third on Sam Malinski’s second goal of the evening, but Vancouver would reclaim the lead twenty-three seconds later, and iced the game with an empty net tally after Wedgewood was pulled for the extra skater.

Coach Jared Bednar, in what was indisputably his shortest press conference of the season, didn’t hold back. “The reality of it is, is if you want to win in this League, you have to play [the way we played in the third period] for sixty minutes, and we weren’t even close. [It] wasn’t a great first and it got worse in the second and […] if you want to hand out badges for good effort and stuff like that, I think we’re beyond that this time of year, you know? Effort for twenty minutes and doing the right things for twenty minutes isn’t good enough.” He went a step further, saying that there were no positives to be found in their effort.

“There’s no excuse,” he continued, “If we’re making excuses for that performance, it’s going to be a short [playoff] run.”

The loss prevented the Avalanche from increasing their points lead over Dallas, and as a result, today’s game still carries weight for both clubs. For the Avs, it’s the start of a back-to-back weekend that sees them returning home for an Easter evening matchup against the St. Louis Blues. With four massive points hanging in the balance for the Avs this weekend, here’s where today’s game matters from their perspective:

The Avs come into Dallas as the undisputed leader across the Central Division, Western Conference, and League standings with a total of 108 points. They have eight (8) games remaining on their schedule—two in hand on Dallas—and have forty-six (46) regulation wins on the season. A regulation win for the Avs wouldn’t completely drive the final nail into the coffin for Dallas to catch them, but it would put their chances on life support. A regulation win for the Avs, coupled with a victory on home ice tomorrow, should put first place out of Dallas’ reach.

This is all predicated on the Avs taking care of their own affairs. They control their own destiny, and while they have the tiebreaker advantages over Dallas right now (points and regulation wins), things can flip on a dime, and the last thing they need is giving Dallas any extra motivation with the end of the season in sight.

While this is certainly a huge weekend for the Avs, today’s game also sets a monumental milestone for Brent Burns, as he is slated to skate in his thousandth consecutive game. The forty year old defenseman, who made his NHL debut for the Minnesota Wild after being selected with the twentieth overall pick in the 2003 NHL Draft, played his first seven seasons with Minnesota before being traded to San Jose prior to the 2011-2012 season. He spent would spend the next eleven seasons in San Jose, where many of his career milestones would take place. The 2014-2015 season saw the first of eleven consecutive seasons of Burns skating in every every regular season game. He made his Stanley Cup Final debut in 2016, set a career high in goals (27) in a Norris trophy-winning campaign in 2017, and set career highs in assists (67) and points (83) in 2019.

Burns was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes prior to the start of the 2022-2023 season, where he spent three seasons before signing with the Avs prior to the start of this season. After surpassing former NHL defenseman Keith Yandle’s mark of 989 consecutive games on March 14, Burns became the all-time leader in consecutive games played among defensemen. Coming into today’s game, he trails only Phil Kessel, who holds the all-time record of 1064 consecutive games among all NHL skaters.

Nathan MacKinnon is the first player in the NHL to reach 50 goals, having broken the mark this past Wednesday. Despite being the NHL’s goal scoring leader, his 121 points total remains three points behind both Tampa’s Nikita Kucherov (124) and five behind Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (126). Martin Nečas (35) and Brock Nelson (33) rank second and third in team goal scoring, respectively. Cale Makar, who left Wednesday’s game with injury, did not accompany the team to Dallas, and will be re-evaluated next week. Nicolas Roy also did not travel with the team to Dallas, and his status will be re-evaluated next week as well.

While Bednar did not indicate who would start in today’s game, look for Wedgewood to get the nod today.

Forwards:
Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Martin Nečas
Artturi Lehkonen – Brock Nelson – Valeri Nichushkin
Parker Kelly – Nazem Kadri – Logan O’Connor
Ross Colton – Jack Drury – Joel Kiviranta

Defense:
Devon Toews – Sam Malinski
Josh Manson – Brent Burns
Brett Kulak – Nick Blankenburg

Between the Pipes:
Scott Wedgewood
Mackenzie Blackwood

The run that Dallas has been on has made them a darling of hockey circles everywhere. In any other season, Dallas’s 102 points would tie them with Carolina in a race for first place in the League, and with both teams splitting their two game season series, it would come down to the thinnest of margins to decide who would emerge ahead of the other. Add in Eastern Conference mainstay Tampa Bay Lightning and the come-out-of-nowhere Buffalo Sabres, both of whom boast 100 point seasons of their own, and there would be no shortages of storylines heading into the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, with Dallas featured prominently among them.

A ten game winning streak? Done. A gold medal winning goaltender? Check. A top-rated power play threat? Yep. A stellar record at home and away? You bet. If you’re the Dallas Stars, you rightly believe that success is yours for the taking as the Stanley Cup Playoffs grow closer.

In any other season, but not this season.

For all their success to this point, Dallas is, and still remains, second best. Coming into today’s regular season finale against Colorado, Dallas is still looking up at their division rival. That ten game winning streak? Colorado’s done that twice. Home and away records? Colorado remains the only team in the NHL that has yet to lose more than ten games on home ice (24-8-5) compared to everyone else (Dallas is 23-10-4 at home). As good as Dallas has been on the road (22-9-8), Colorado’s 25-7-5 record is still better than everyone else.

Let’s not stop there: A +49 goal differential for Dallas? Colorado’s +90 is tops in the League. Colorado’s allowed the fewest number of goals (193) compared to Dallas (209), and Scott Wedgewood’s 2.19 goals against average and .916 save percentage leads all active goaltenders. By comparison, goaltender Casey DeSmith’s 2.38 goals against average ranks third among active goaltenders, while Jake Oettinger’s 2.61 ranks fifteenth. DeSmith’s .909 save percentage ranks fourteenth among active goaltenders, while Oettinger’s .900 ranks twenty-third.

There are a couple of bright spots for Dallas. Dallas can hang their ten-gallon hats on a second-ranked power play percentage (29.1%), while Colorado’s 17.9% ranks twenty-fifth. Oettinger also ranks third in wins among goaltenders (31), four more than Wedgewood (27), and ten more than Mackenzie Blackwood (21).

Dallas also leads the regular season series 2-0-1, their most recent victory being a 2-1 shootout decision back on March 18 at Ball Arena. To this point in the season, every game against Colorado has ended in a shootout. In their last meeting at America Airlines Center on March 06, Dallas captain Jamie Benn botched an opportunity to ice the game with Wedgewood on the bench for an extra skater, but his shot attempt banked off the side of the net. Valeri Nichushkin would score the game-tying goal moments later, and provided the shootout heroics alongside Martin Nečas to best Oettinger en route to a 5-4 decision for Colorado. That game would also see the departure of Roope Hintz to injury after getting tangled up with Nathan MacKinnon in the second period.

Since then, Dallas has regained the services of former Colorado Avalanche right wing Mikko Rantanen. He returned to action on March 28 in a 6-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Rantanen, who sustained injury during his play for Team Finland during the Olympics in Italy, had not made a regular season appearance for Dallas since a 5-4 victory over St. Louis on February 04, prior to the Olympic break.

In order to have a shot at first place in the West, Dallas is banking on a repeat performance from Oettinger, who blanked the Winnipeg Jets by a score of 3-0 this past Thursday. The victory was only Dallas’ third in their past ten games. A regulation win over Colorado would pull Dallas within four points of first place, and with four games remaining in the regular season, today’s head-to-head matchup is Dallas’ last, best chance to prevent Colorado from widening the gap between them. Even with a win over Colorado, Dallas would still have to play nearly flawless hockey down the stretch and hope they get some help from Colorado’s remaining opponents.

Wyatt Johnston leads all Dallas skaters in goals (41) and power play goals (25). Jason Robertson ranks second in goals (40), and leads the team in points (89). Miro Heiskanen leads all Dallas skaters in assists (53), while Rantanen is a close second (52). Rantanen also leads all Dallas skaters in penalty minutes (89).

Today marks the second of a five game home stand for Dallas, their final prolonged stretch of games on home ice. Oettinger will likely start in goal to close out the season series against Colorado.

Forwards:
Jason Robertson – Wyatt Johnston – Mikko Rantanen
Jamie Benn – Matt Duchene – Colin Blackwell
Oskar Bäck – Justin Hryckowian – Mavrik Bourque
Adam Erne – Arttu Hyry

Defense:
Esa Lindell – Miro Heiskanen
Thomas Harley – Nils Lundkvist
Lian Bischel – Ilya Lyubushkin
Kyle Capobianco

Between the Pipes:
Jake Oettinger
Casey DeSmith