District predictions for Dallas-area 5A high school football teams for the 2023 season
District predictions for Dallas-area 6A high school football teams for the 2023 season
Anna needs Celina. Celina needs Anna.
The two single-school communities north of Dallas have been heavily impacted by the growth of their contemporaries surrounding them. But in 2022 the two kindled a rivalry in the regular season and playoffs that felt ripped from the pages of Friday Night Lights, one that cuts to the heart of what makes small-high school football great.
“You’ve got to have a rival,” Anna coach Seth Parr said. “But man, I want to beat them.”
Celina coach Bill Elliott said, “I love the rivalry game. Hopefully we can maintain that with them.”
The good news for Parr and Elliott is that Anna and Celina are on track to grow together. Their budding rivalry may last years.
The bad news, for the state of Class 4A football in the sprawling Dallas-Fort Worth area, is that those two will outgrow their current classification along the way.
Anna, the No. 1 team in The Dallas Morning News’ preseason 4A rankings, and Celina, No. 2, are the two closest programs Dallas-Fort Worth has to a 4A powerhouse. Both may very well be too large for the 4A Div. I classification by the start of next football season. By the 2026 realignment, both will surely be 5A programs.
Former 4A powers Argyle and Melissa, now state-ranked programs in their second season at the 5A Div. II classification, came and went as well. Prosper, a 6A contender, played in 4A as recently as 2014.
Their collective growth has left Dallas-Fort Worth’s 4A landscape thinner than it was before. And if Anna, Celina and other burgeoning North Texas suburbs continue to boom, that same scene may become a nonfactor from a competitive standpoint.
“It’s going to get really strange,” Elliott said. “It’s going to drastically change, especially whoare the dominant teams in the area, because all of the dominant teams are going to be gone.”
And because of that, the final days of high-level small-school football in Dallas-Fort Worth may be nearing.
“This is the last hurrah,” Parr said.
Kaufman (1,235) and Anna (1,215) were each within 85 students of classifying as 5A Div. II programs during the 2022 realignment cycle. Frisco Panther Creek (1,118.53), which opened in 2022, wasn’t far behind. Celina, which registered an enrollment of 994 students on snapshot day in 2021, projects to have over 3,000 students by 2032.
Parr expects Anna to rise to the 5A Div. II classification as part of the 2024 realignment cycle. Elliott said he thinks Celina will remain in 4A Div. I for the 2024-25 school years, but that it’ll be in the 5A Div. II classification in 2026.
What does that leave? Here’s perspective: Only three Dallas-area 4A teams won double-digit games last season. Anna (13-1) and Celina (11-2) were two of them. The third, Aubrey (10-3), competes in 4A Div. II, but it expects to have 2,000-plus students by 2031 and could have a brief stint in 4A Div. I before moving up to 5A. Gunter, the reigning 3A Div. I state champion, could find itself in the 4A classification sooner rather than later, but it’s an hour north of Dallas.
“I don’t know how many 4A teams there are going to be,” Parr said. “Unfortunately, I’m kind of seeing a sad deal, it’s starting to go away. 4A football is going to be a lot different; a lot of these schools are going to be 5A.”
That great departure of contenders has already started. Argyle rose to 5A Div. II in 2022 and left the Dallas area without a flagship 4A program. Melissa, a dark horse 5A Div. II state title contender in 2023, went along with it.
And if Anna, Celina, Kaufman and Panther Creek do the same by the 2024 or 2026 realignment cycles, the strength of Dallas-Fort Worth’s small school football scene will only weaken.
So what could the future of 4A look like in D-FW? The present of 3A could forecast it. Just four Dallas-area teams — Madison, Gateway Charter Academy, Life Oak Cliff and Dallas A+ — are classified as 3A teams. None of those four won a playoff game in 2022.
Just 20 Dallas-area teams are classified as 4A teams, compared with 56 in 5A and 67 in 6A.
That leaves the Dallas area heavy at the top and thin at the bottom. It also means that fewer and fewer area 4A teams will likely be contending for state championships in the coming years.
“4A, it’s probably going to be dominated by East Texas and West Texas,” Parr said.
That may already be the case.
Texas’ largest classifications are dominated by the state’s largest metropolises. Since 2010, just two football teams outside major metropolitan areas — College Station in 2017 and Longview in 2018 — have won a state championship in one of Texas’ four largest divisions, 6A Div. I, 6A Div. II, 5A Div. I and 5A Div. II. This is where the Dallas area — which won state championships in three of those four classes last season — makes its hay.
The state’s middle classification, 4A, belongs largely to those in farther-flung communities. China Spring, winners of the last two 4A Div. I championships, resides just outside Waco. Back-to-back 4A Div. II state champion Carthage is closer to Shreveport than any major Texas city. Since the UIL adopted its six-classification format in 2014, just one Dallas-area team (Argyle in 2020) has won one of the 20 possible 4A state championships. It’s the only program within a major metro area across Texas to have won a 4A state championship in that span.
“They put more into it than some of the schools in these big cities,” Parr said, adding that it’s easier for single-school districts to make wholesale improvements to athletics and football than it is for a multischool district.
“I don’t think it’s a rural or suburban thing. It’s really, ‘What does it mean to that ISD?’”
Celina, an eight-time state champion, hasn’t won since its 3A Div. II crown in 2007. Kennedale’s loss to Carthage in the 2017 4A Div. I state championship game was the school’s lone trip to a title game. Aubrey and Anna have never advanced to even a state semifinal, though both programs have taken significant steps toward one in recent years.
Anna lost to China Spring in last year’s regional finals. Celina lost to Anna the round prior. Kennedale lost to Celina the round before that. Aubrey, in 4A Div. II, lost to Texarkana Pleasant Grove in the regional semifinals.
That same roadblock to AT&T Stadium may exist this season, too.
China Spring is the preseason No. 1 in Dave Campbell’s Texas Football’s statewide 4A Div. I rankings; Stephenville, the 2021 state champion, is fourth. Both reside in 4A Div. I Region I alongside Celina (No. 6), Anna (No. 8), Kennedale (No. 18) and Carter (23).
It won’t make Dallas’ last great chance at 4A glory any easier.
Carter is one of the Dallas area’s largest 4A teams, with an enrollment of 1,161. It, alongside its Dallas ISD 4A contemporaries Pinkston, North Dallas and Wilmer-Hutchins, aren’t on the same kind of growth trajectory as the northern suburbs.
That may not necessarily be a bad thing.
South Oak Cliff reinvigorated Dallas ISD football with back-to-back 5A Div. II state championships in 2022 and 2021. But that success at the highest level for Dallas city schools has been far and few between outside of that; before South Oak Cliff’s 2021 title, a Dallas ISD team hadn’t won a recognized football state championship in the previous 63 years. (Carter forfeited its 1988 title.)
A less crowded district and region may provide a more viable opportunity for schools such as Carter to contend.
“I think, for us, it helps us gain a little competitive advantage with some of those teams moving up,” said Carter coach Spencer Gilbert, whose team competes in District 7-4A Div. I alongside Celina. “They always had numbers that we didn’t have when we played against them. I think it kind of levels us out with them moving up and gives us an opportunity to compete.”
Carter will still need to contend with the likes of China Spring and Stephenville for a deep postseason run.
“With the success that South Oak Cliff has had over there, it has allowed the resources to be spent in various schools,” Gilbert said. “Once you get the resources, you will start seeing us be more competitive across the board.”
That’d be a win for Carter and the rest of Dallas ISD.
It could also be a win for the Dallas-area 4A scene.
Those, in these next few years, may be harder and harder to come by.
Staff writer Greg Riddle contributed to this report.
On Twitter: @McFarland_Shawn
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Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is exploring options for a new head coach following the departure of Mike McCarthy, and one name generating buzz is franchise legend Jason Witten. Known as the best tight end in Cowboys history, Witten has long been a favorite of Jones and is being considered for the high-profile role.
McCarthy and the Cowboys parted ways after five seasons, ending a tenure that included three consecutive 12-5 records but just one playoff win. The coaching search is officially underway, and Witten’s name has surfaced alongside other contenders.
Witten, an 11-time Pro Bowler and the franchise leader in games starts, receptions, and receiving yards, has deep ties to Dallas. While his coaching experience is limited to leading a private high school team to a state championship, his leadership qualities and familiarity with the organization make him a compelling, albeit unconventional, option.
If hired, Witten would follow a path similar to Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell, another former Cowboys tight end. Campbell transitioned to the NFL coaching ranks after years of assistant coaching experience, a step Witten has yet to take. However, Jones has a history of making bold decisions, and Witten’s intimate understanding of the Cowboys’ culture could give him an edge.
While some question whether Witten’s high school coaching background is sufficient preparation for the NFL, Jones values loyalty and passion for the franchise, qualities Witten embodies. His connection with the Cowboys and leadership on and off the field could make him an intriguing choice to guide the team into its next chapter.
Jones’ next coach will be his ninth. The first four were first-time NFL head coaches, starting with Jimmy Johnson when Jones bought the team in 1989. The former University of Miami coach won back-to-back Super Bowls before an acrimonious split with Jones, his college teammate at Arkansas.
Three of Jones’ past four hires had NFL head coaching experience, including Super Bowl winners Bill Parcells and McCarthy. The exception was former Dallas quarterback Jason Garrett, the longest-tenured coach under Jones at nine-plus seasons.
The Cowboys have yet to release updates on the search, but Jason Witten remains a name to watch as the process unfolds.
About four minutes into the Dallas Mavericks’ recent contest against the Denver Nuggets, starting center Dereck Lively left the contest with an ankle injury.
Evidently, the Mavericks are already dealing with massive injuries to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Those two superstars lead the team and Lively is right up there as one of the more impactful players on the team.
However, just one day after the injury, Lively has already gotten X-ray updates back on his sprained right ankle, and it’s a bit of a relief for Mavericks fans. Chris Haynes provided the recent update.
“Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II received an X-ray on his sprained right ankle and results were negative. No timeline established as of now,” Haynes reported.
The Mavericks are struggling to stay healthy, though doing so by April is the main goal and it’s just January. Lively has had issues remaining on the hardwood for the club in his inaugural two seasons, and it’s leaving some fans concerned.
READ MORE: Latest Timeline for Luka Doncic’s Return to Dallas Mavericks Revealed
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The Dallas city manager search has unspooled in the chaotic style we’ve come to expect from this City Council. There was the ho-hum recruitment brochure draft featuring the wrong skyline. There was the council civil war over the timeline of the search and the flow of information about candidates. And nothing says “we’ve got our act together” like eleventh-hour candidate interviews the day before Christmas Eve.
When two original semifinalists and a former Dallas city official dropped out of the race, no one was surprised.
We wish the next city manager the best of luck because no amount of talent and hard work can overcome a fundamental flaw of this search, and that is the lack of formal, measurable goals by the City Council. Our city is about to hire its CEO, but its board of directors has no metrics to set expectations or hold that person accountable for the most important job in Dallas.
If you want to understand how dysfunctional the situation is, start with the fact that the council’s appointees — the city manager, city attorney, city secretary and city auditor — haven’t had a performance review in more than two years. Our last city manager, T.C. Broadnax, had his last evaluation in August 2022. He left in May 2024. Interim City Manager Kimberly Bizor Tolbert, the front-runner for the job, hasn’t had an evaluation since her appointment last spring.
The council has hired a consultant over the years to help conduct the evaluations of its appointees. But no consultant can fix this council’s main problem, and that is its inability to come together to develop a consensus around four or five priorities and the metrics to measure progress in those areas.
Even when performance reviews for council appointees were happening, the process was broken. The council’s consultant called council members individually to solicit feedback, with the consultant identifying “themes” shared verbally with the council, and with no particular comments attributed to specific people, according to a 2022 memorandum from Management Partners, the firm hired to do the work. The city manager and other appointees were “invited” to prepare a report on their accomplishments and goals for next year, with the potential for “refinements” based on council input.
There was no written report from the performance evaluation, other than any goals reports produced by the appointees.
It’s a shockingly wishy-washy approach to evaluating an employee, let alone a C-suite executive.
And don’t expect even a veneer of transparency for taxpayers. Last year, we requested Broadnax’s goal reports and were told by the city that there were no responsive records, only to hear a council member remind her colleagues last week that Broadnax produced a memo with his goals after his last performance review in 2022. City staff failed to release this memo in response to our request. Such a document should be public under the Texas Public Information Act.
Now, on the brink of hiring its next city manager, the council is panicking about the fact that it hasn’t evaluated its council appointees in a long time and that it has no measurable goals for any of them. The council committee whose job it is to codify the annual review process can’t seem to agree on how to move forward.
Mayor Pro Tem Tennell Atkins chairs the committee. In a December meeting, he led a discussion on next steps to resume performance reviews of council appointees. Council members learned that their previous consulting firm, Management Partners, had been acquired by Baker Tilly, the company that is leading the messy city manager search. But the woman who had worked closely with the council on previous performance reviews was no longer associated with either company.
The committee gave city staff mixed signals on how to proceed. Some council members said they wanted to continue working with the previous consultant. Others asked to hear from Baker Tilly. Some said they were dissatisfied with the previous consultant or concerned about Baker Tilly and wanted to hear from other vendors. Council members said to move quickly.
By the time the council committee picked the conversation back up this month, confusion reigned. Baker Tilly prepared a presentation that described a performance review process very similar to what the council had with its previous partner. Atkins indicated that the council was moving forward with Baker Tilly using an existing contract, and other committee members pushed back. Meanwhile, an assistant city manager and an assistant human resources director couldn’t answer a council member’s simple question about when the council appointees were last evaluated.
“Yes, we are overdue for these reviews, but I think that they should be pursued seriously with the appropriate time periods involved,” said council member Paul Ridley. “I don’t think we should out of convenience select someone who is doing other work for the city at the present time.”
Council member Jesse Moreno asked whether Baker Tilly would have a conflict of interest in facilitating the performance review of an executive the firm helped hire. A representative tried to assuage Moreno, but he is right to bring that up, given that Baker Tilly would be required to conduct a new search at no cost to Dallas if the city manager doesn’t last a year. Council members should be skeptical. (Keep in mind it was Baker Tilly that produced the hiring brochure for Dallas city manager. The cover photo was a shining image of the Houston skyline.)
The council now seems poised to consider other consultants for the performance evaluations. Council members should do their due diligence instead of repeating their sloppiness for the sake of comfort.
Hire a consultant, if you must, to moderate the conversation or offer pointers, but a management firm can’t do the hard work for you.
Outgoing council member Jaynie Schultz said it best: “This problem is ours as a council. We have not done our work. And so we can try spending all of our time diverting all the problem and the blame on Baker Tilly. … The delay is us, 100% us.”
The council’s job is not to run the city but to set clear, measurable expectations for the people it hires to do that. It’s telling that council members have relied on a consultant to remind them to perform a fundamental duty.
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