Weather whiplash from cold front ahead for Austin: 5 graphics tell the story

Central Texas weather is about to pull off a classic weekend flip-flop. Austin temperatures will surge above normal on Saturday and to near-record levels by Sunday, before a strong cold front sweeps through and brings our last chill of traditional winter on Monday. 

So, get ready to break out the sunscreen and wide-brimmed hats, because the weekend will feature plenty of sunshine, breezy southerly winds and temperatures climbing well into the 80s and 90s on both Saturday and Sunday.

Here are four maps and one chart that will tell the weather story this weekend. 

A system of high atmospheric pressure has now shifted east of Texas, allowing southerly winds to pump more moisture-rich air into Central Texas. This will bring dew point temperatures (an indicator of water vapor saturation in the air) up from the 40s on Friday to near 60 degrees on Saturday. Expect plenty of sunshine, gusty south winds and temperatures warming into the lower to mid-80s.

A blustery, cold, and dry cold front will move across the Lone Star State on Sunday — first through the Panhandle during the morning, then into North-Central Texas around midday, before pushing into Central Texas during the late afternoon and reaching South Texas by Sunday evening.

Ahead of the front, afternoon temperatures Sunday will skyrocket into the 90s, thanks to compressional heating, which occurs when a parcel of air sinks, compresses and warms. This sometimes happens when southwesterly winds blow over the Hill Country and drop in elevation as the air moves into Austin. 

If that happens, we could see Sunday temperatures that would rival daily heat records for March 15 at both Camp Mabry and Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Austin’s main climate observation sites. Camp Mabry’s record high is 91 degrees, set in 2016, while the airport’s record is 87 degrees, set in 1977. If those temperatures are reached, it would mark the hottest day so far this year, a degree or two warmer than the current high of 89 degrees recorded on March 3.

Behind the front, blustery north winds will send temperatures tumbling nearly 50 degrees from Sunday afternoon to early Monday morning. While we don’t expect freezing temperatures in Austin, don’t put away your winter jackets just yet. 

“Monday morning has the potential for some locations to see freezing temperatures, with the National Blend Model (a composite weather forecast model) currently giving about a 20% to 40% chance for temperatures less than 32 degrees over our typically colder locations of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country,” the meteorologists at the National Weather Service wrote in their forecast discussion earlier in the week. 

As the cold front moves into Central Texas, a wall of wind will arrive with it. The gusts could prompt the weather service to issue a wind advisory, with one forecast model showing gusts as strong as 50 mph with the initial surge. 

The National Weather Service issues a wind advisory when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are expected for at least an hour, or any gusting winds reach 46 to 57 mph. 

Gusty north winds will continue into Monday morning, bringing wind chill values, or “feels like” temperatures, down into the 20s across the Hill Country and keeping afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s. 

Next week, we will see a gradual warming trend and a strong ridge of high atmospheric pressure over the western United States will slowly build east with temperatures a little warmer each day.