Austin’s troubled housing market gets more bad news

Home prices in the former pandemic boomtown of Austin, Texas, dropped by -0.1 percent from May to June, according to the latest data from Zillow compiled by journalist Lance Lambert.

“In early June, I said the Austin metro is poised for some more home price declines in the second half of 2024,” Lambert, who writes for ResiClub, posted on X. “The tell-tale sign was the weak month-over-month print from April to May—historically one of the strongest reporting months of the year.”

After a drop of -0.6 percent between December 2023 and January, home prices had modestly been rising in the Texas capital. Between January and February, they increased by 0.3 percent; in both March and April they grew by 1.1 percent month-over-month. From April to May, they increased by only 0.2 percent.

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While the June home price decrease is a far cry from the steep drops of summer and winter of 2022, when prices plunged by as much as -3.0 percent, it’s a clear sign that Austin’s housing market is still navigating troubled waters.

When the pandemic hit, Austin had been the fastest growing large metropolitan area in the country in more than a decade, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. During the COVID-19 health emergency, the city saw a massive influx of people moving from other states into the Texas capital, attracted by more affordable prices, Austin’s great weather and its vibrant culture.

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These people—often remote workers leaving expensive cities like the ones in California’s Bay Area—brought up demand for homes in the city at a time of historically low supply, engaging in cutthroat bidding wars and sending prices to the roof. At its peak in May 2022, the median sale price of a home in Austin had reached $667,000, according to Redfin data, up 16.0 percent from a year earlier.

But after the end of the pandemic boom, many remote workers were forced to return home and leave Austin, while the massive migration of the past couple of years started to decline. As the U.S. housing market was experiencing a modest price correction between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, Austin was witnessing a much more dramatic collapse of its home prices.

“Because prices have been so high, there was a lot of room for prices to fall,” Daryl Fairweather, Redfin chief economist, previously told Newsweek. Between July 2022 and February 2023, home prices fell in Austin for eight consecutive months, by as much as -3.0 percent and as little as -0.9 percent.

After rising for three months between April 2023 and June 2023, home prices in the city started dropping again between July 2023 and January 2024, though the deepest drop was a much more modest -1.5 percent.

An increase in housing inventory is partly responsible for this further drop in prices. According to a recent analysis of Realtor.com active listings made by ResiClub, housing inventory for sale in Austin reached a new cycle high last month at 10,913 and it’s now 41 percent above pre-pandemic levels.

While the median sale price of homes in Austin remains much higher than the state’s average of $354,800, according to Redfin data, the cost of housing has dropped noticeably since the pandemic. In June, as per Redfin data, the median sale price of a home was $564,000, down -6.0 percent year-over-year.