Austin home sales and prices expected to drop in 2024 according to new Realtor.com report

Soaring home prices in recent years could calm down in 2024 after a report from Realtor.com predicted a drop in both home sales and prices for the Austin-Round Rock Area. 

Specifically, the real estate website predicted home sales in the Austin metro area would fall by 11.7%, while prices would fall by 12.2% compared to both of those marks in 2023. 

Moreover, across the country, the website predicted median home prices would fall by a much smaller 1.7%. However, it should be noted that larger, and recently more expensive, markets are expected to see bigger drops in price. 

How are other Texas housing markets expected to perform in 2024?

While the Austin area is predicted to see the biggest combined decrease in sales and price in Texas in 2024, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas-Fort Worth are all also expected to see those numbers decline. 

Realtor.com predicts Houston will have the smallest declines, with a 9.7% decrease in home sales and a 4.5% decrease in price. San Antonio is expected to nearly see double-digit decreases in these categories, with a 10.1% drop expected for home sales and a 9.4% decline expected for price. The Dallas-Fort Worth area is expected to see the biggest drop in sales at 12.9% and an 8.4% drop in price. 

What is driving the drop in sales across the country?

When explaining why it feels housing prices will fall in 2024, Realtor.com first explained that home prices have been growing at a double-digit annual clip for most of two years — spanning the second half of 2020 through 2022 — a notable increase after a growing streak that spanned back to 2012.

What does this mean for sellers and buyers?

Starting in May 2022, buying a typical for-sale home listing at the prevailing rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage with a 20% down payment meant forking over a quarter or more of the typical household paycheck.

According to Realtor.com, in October 2023, it required 39% of the typical household income, and this share is expected to average 36.7% for the full calendar year in 2023.

With buyers and sellers in a stalemate, the firm predicts a record low in home sales for 2024 as prices start to ease. Because of this, Realtor.com expects buyers will look to builders instead of sellers in 2024. 

Beck Andrew Salgado covers trending topics in the Austin business ecosystem for the American-Statesman. To share additional tips or insights with Salgado, email Bsalgado@gannett.com.