Atlanta, GA
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-8-2023
As soon as Upon A Time In Las Vegas
The (8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS) Tampa Bay Buccaneers and (6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS) Atlanta Falcons will take the sphere for an NFC South conflict Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Bucs, 3-4 on the highway, beat Carolina 30-24 final week. The Falcons, 5-3 at residence, defeated Arizona 20-19.
Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 21-15 at residence on Oct. 9. The Falcons stormed again from a 21-point deficit with 15 fourth-quarter factors, however their comeback fell brief. The sport was marred by a questionable roughing the passer penalty on Falcons defensive lineman Grady Jarrett that allowed the Buccaneers to expire the sport clock. Tampa Bay is 30-28 all-time versus Atlanta, and Bucs QB Tom Brady has by no means misplaced to the Falcons.
Kickoff from Atlanta is at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Falcons are four-point unfold favorites, and the sport whole is 40.5 factors.
Tampa Bay is 4-11-1 ATS this season
The Buccaneers clinched the NFC South in final week’s victory over the Panthers and are the fourth seed within the NFC Playoffs. Tampa Bay scored 20 fourth-quarter factors behind the longer term Corridor of Famer Brady, who handed for 432 yards and three touchdowns — all to receiver Mike Evans. The TDs had been Evans’ first scores in 12 video games. His 207-yard efficiency pushed him over 1,000 receiving yards, making him the primary participant in NFL historical past to attain that mark in 9 consecutive seasons to begin his profession.
Whereas it was a rousing comeback, at simply 8-8 straight-up and 4-11-1 in opposition to the unfold, the Bucs must play extra constantly within the postseason in the event that they hope to advance.
“The playoffs begin a clear slate for everyone,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles mentioned. “You’ve bought a three-game elimination event. Doesn’t matter the place you’re. … Not less than we all know we’ll be within the video games. We simply have to chop down on the errors with a purpose to win them.”
HIM. pic.twitter.com/jOv6fSwsos
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 3, 2023
Tampa Bay averages 18.5 factors and 354.5 whole yards per sport, together with 76.4 speeding yards (thirty second within the NFL) and 278.1 passing yards (2nd within the NFL). The Buccaneers have a -2 turnover differential and are twenty second in third down conversion share (36.9%). Tampa Bay converts 51.0 p.c of its crimson zone alternatives into touchdowns, the eighth-lowest share within the league.
The Bucs hand over 20.5 factors and 320.7 whole yards per contest, together with 117.4 speeding yards and 203.3 passing yards. They’re eighth in factors allowed per sport, fifteenth in speeding yards allowed, eighth in passing yards allowed, and seventh in whole yards allowed. Tampa Bay’s opponents convert 36.6 p.c of their third downs, the sixth-lowest conversion share, and 61.3 p.c of their crimson zone alternatives into touchdowns, the eighth-highest conversion share.
Do not underestimate the affect these video games have on Atlanta’s future
The Falcons have been in a freefall, dropping six of their final eight. With one sport left in opposition to division rival Tampa, Atlanta can solely play for its pleasure in an NFC South competitors it led not too way back.
The Falcons did get again into the win column final week on Younghoe Koo’s 21-yard game-winning discipline purpose. Rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder could not discover the top zone however accomplished 19 of 26 passing makes an attempt for 169 yards and 0 interceptions. The Cincinnati product continues to be looking for his first profession landing.
“You may’t take something with no consideration,” Ridder mentioned after making his third professional begin. “That is one factor, clearly, that I don’t take with no consideration. Popping out right here subsequent week, this can clearly be the final sport of my rookie season. We’re not taking any of those video games with no consideration, any of those performs with no consideration.”
He is too Koo within the second pic.twitter.com/4rNrCbAJHW
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) January 1, 2023
Atlanta averages 20.9 factors and 314.7 whole yards per sport, together with 159.0 speeding yards (third within the NFL) and 155.7 passing yards (thirty first within the NFL). The Falcons have a -4 turnover differential and are tenth in third down conversion share (41.9%). Atlanta converts 54.0 p.c of its crimson zone alternatives into touchdowns (seventeenth within the NFL).
The Falcons hand over 23.1 factors and 370.9 whole yards per sport, together with 133.0 speeding yards and 237.9 passing yards. Atlanta’s opponents convert 45.8 p.c of their third downs (thirty first within the NFL) and 54.3 p.c of their crimson zone alternatives into touchdowns (thirteenth within the NFL).
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Will Tampa Bay relaxation Brady and a few of its different starters with the fourth seed already locked up? The Bucs are already coping with accidents alongside their offensive line and may’t danger any extra issues. Bowles mentioned he would play his starters earlier this week, however he could also be bluffing. There’s additionally the likelihood he pulls them within the second half.
Atlanta is formally eradicated from playoff competition and can run it again with Ridder as an audition for the longer term. The Falcons have light from the playoff race in the previous couple of weeks, however they had been within the combine not too way back. In addition they held the league’s greatest ATS report for some time. At 8-8, their ATS report continues to be a lot better than Tampa’s (4-11-1).
The Bucs are 0-5 ATS of their final 5 highway video games and 1-8-1 ATS of their final ten video games after accumulating lower than 90 yards speeding of their earlier sport. Atlanta will play with extra pleasure on Sunday and canopy the unfold in opposition to a Brady-less Bucs squad.
Prediction: Atlanta -4
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40.5 is a low whole, even with the Bucs presumably resting their starters and Ridder nonetheless looking for his first profession landing.
The Falcons, third within the league in speeding yards, ought to have some success in opposition to a Tampa Bay protection that is fifteenth in opposition to the run. Plus, Ridder is due for a landing or two after Cordarrelle Patterson dropped a surefire TD ultimately zone final week. Between Patterson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, somebody is certain to search out a gap and get their QB his first rating.
The over is 5-1 within the final six conferences between these groups in Atlanta and 7-2 general within the final 9 conferences. I am going to guess that Bowles opts to play his starters for no less than a half and that the Falcons rating sufficient factors to push the entire over 40.5 factors.
Prediction: Over 40.5